The company will enter the clinic under its own brand for the first time ever, and it will do so with the highly respected oncology CRO, TD2 and its Chief Development Officer, Dr. Daniel Von Hoff. In the studies, Nuvilex and TD2 will determine what effect the company’s pancreatic cancer treatment will have on these symptoms.
Finally someone gets it..I've been trying to tell this board about the impact of this new drug and no one gets it......it's a huge game changer and this board has no clue..thanks for this great post
DB-Weekly IMS scripts indicate Otezla sales of ~$13M for 3Q using the calculated capture rate (113%). This represents ~180% growth from TOTAL 2Q’14 number ($4.6M) - Reiterate $115 target
Deutsche Bank - Equity Research - North America
Celgene Alert - IMS suggests 3Q Otezla sales at ~$13M
01 August 2014 (1 page/ 121 kb)
Celgene Closing Price: 87.15 USD
Target Price: 115.00 USD, Recommendation: Buy
Weekly IMS scripts indicate Otezla sales of ~$13M for 3Q using the calculated capture rate (113%). This represents ~180% growth from 2Q’14 number ($4.6M). Total Scripts were down 9% w/w (736 vs. 812) while the new scripts were also down 17% w/w (497 vs. 605). Scripts for July are trending to end-up closer to ~3700 which is slightly below the number of scripts written in the entire 2Q (~3968). Celgene mentioned on their 2Q14 call that July monthly sales would meet or beat the entire 2Q (~$5M). Please ask for our Otezla calculator.
We use script based calculations and note that IMS indicated 2Q sales at ~$5.2M vs. $4.6M actual. This gives a capture rate of 113% for 2Q.
Using this capture rate and Gross to net of 30%, we arrive at $13M sales for 2Q. We model ~4% weekly script growth every week for the rest of the Q. At 100% capture rate we see 3Q’14 sales at $15M.
We model higher gross to net in this market as such discounts are normal in these channels. Our survey indicated a 25-30% discount for Anti-TNFs vs. their WAC price.
This is fantastic: this sort of analysis is exactly what I’ve been looking at doing myself. Thank you and great work.
the stock is back above 85 I was hope for more like 83. I will be patient.
Underground Stock Alerts* (google em) just came out with a detailed report on CELG today - I recommend any fellow shareholders here sign up immediately and wait for the next update, last time they alerted a stock as a buy it went up 1350%, and last two times they put out sell ratings the stocks dove over 75% - don't be the last to know and get screwed, I learned my lesson on their AAPL sell alert, and GOOG buy alert sub $300
A co can get bought out all cash (preferred by most shareholders, but not normally done this way), or by a combination of cash and stock of the acquiring co. Your broker will tell you how many shares of this new co you will have after the buyout is completed. Your gain will be the cash paid by the acquiring co and the stock received lass your basis before the buyout.
Somewhat new to investing. So I have a kind of dumb question...
If Celgene were to get bought out by say, Pfizer, do shareholders just essentially get cash for their shares (at whatever the buyout price is per share)? Or how does this work exactly. I know this is likely a silly question.
$131.00 Analysis of the stock's current worth, based on S&P Capital IQ's
proprietary quantitative model suggests that CELG is Undervalued
by $43.84 or 50.3%.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think so too at about $115. but if you look at the long term for CELG it could get back to $150 over the next few years if their pipeline plays out well. This leaves me torn cause a buy out would be a great short term gain but if they don't get bought out, you can have a much bigger longer term gain.