Yet another all-time high $116.85 (six in a row) & all-time closing high $115.21 ( five times in the last six trading sessions). And that is with GED-031 Crohn's publication, ASH & SABCS still to come in the next 2 wks
Then after the bell - Michael Yee of RBC on CNBC Fast Money says CELG number 1 pick for the rest of this yr...followed by Vertex and Biomarin. Here's the related report I previously emailed to you with similar positive CELG comments… glad he got on FM....
Just out-RBC- 5 Reasons why CELG is out top long idea for December....Reading the Biotech Yee-leaves for December....
November 30, 2014
Reading the Biotech Yee-leaves for December
Top investor questions, events, long CELG, BMRN, VRTX, what buyside is reading
Three themes are evident going into 2015: 1) fund managers think the group can work but are not
expecting as much outperformance as 2014 given higher end P/E multiples vs prior years although
arguably not expensive (eg AMGN 17x, CELG 21x is different than 1-2 years ago), 2) it will be important
to watch whether other industries will be tough as evidenced by recent significant global macrouncertainty
that has impacted energy, oil, and other sectors as this could make biotech more attractive
and we hear this constantly in our meetings, 3) investors are continuing to watch performance of GILD
and BIIB as two big-cap growth biotechs that have been lagging for the last few months and wonder
that if they continue whether that will impact generalist interest in biotech.
Key events for December: 1) ASH is Dec 6-9 with analyst events Sunday (CELG) and Monday (AMGN,
AGIO, PCYC, etc); contact us for detailed planner and inquire about RBC-hosted doc event on Sunday;
2) NVS will report Phase III data for Gilenya in PPMS and we think it will fail....Street may view as BIIB
read-through as well as for RCPT additional indication, 3) BIIB may disclose a Phase II/III go/no-go on
Alzheimer's drug BIIB-037, 4) PRTA should update Street on potential start of Phase II pivotal study, 5)
ABBV Hep C PDUFA around 12/20 and announcement of price, 6) INFI Phase II RA data has super low
Top 6 investor questions: 1) Can GILD hit Q4 HCV estimates and when will everyone know they might
miss "over-modeled consensus"...January? 2) Why are BIIB Tecfidera scripts flattish, is something going
on? And is stock range-bound until LINGO data and is it a long into that with stock at $300 now? 3) PCYC
scripts seem flattish but if stock goes up are investors willing to overlook this for 2015 RESONATE-2 (CLL)
and DAWN (NHL) data and PD-1 hopes?, 4) What are FEV expectations into VRTX's '661 homozygous
data in January? 5) Can AMGN still work in H1:15 if less catalysts and LLY's CETP interim is coming then?
5) Will ICPT stock turn around and when and why and what if GenFit data is positive or negative?
Our Top 3 Longs:
1) Buy CELG because it could trade at its current 20-21x multiple on 2016 potentially getting it to $125+; possibly a self-fulfilling market prophecy that a "settlement" with ACT could theoretically happen after February '15 when legal discovery ends and before Court could begin in mid-15 (we're not saying it's inevitable by then, but acknowledge the potential exists, could happen even after Court begins); investors should start giving more credit to pipeline – GED-301 going into Phase III....and now Agios' drugs are getting interesting e.g. AG-221 (CELG has rights) and AG-120 (CELG has OUS rights) – we think President Global Hematology, Jackie Fouse, will talk about all of this at ASH next week...
2) Buy BMRN into Dec 10th analyst event and 5 pipeline readouts for '15, especially Phase II achondroplasia data in Q2 which should work
3) Buy VRTX into early '15 Phase II VX-661 3-month homozygous data which should look better than first-gen '809 combo. We want to own into potentially '809 strong pricing and USA launch for mid-15...
Our top 3 long ideas for December:
1) Buy CELG: because they should grow EPS 20%+ next year and in 2016 so we think it'sGARP 21x multiple on '15E rolls to '16E, that should get the stock towards $125+, 2) possible self-fulfilling market prophecy that a "settlement" with ACT could theoretically happen after February '15 when legal discovery ends and before Court could begin in mid-15 (we're not saying it's inevitable by then, but acknowledge the potential exists; could happen even after Court begins), 3) investors should start giving more credit to pipeline – they have gotten interested in GED-301 going into Phase III....4) and now seem to be highly rewarding partner AGIO with two drugs – AG-221 (CELG has rights) and new AG-120 (CELG has OUS rights) – both as hemonc drugs but could be expanding to solid. CELG stock hasn't really moved on the AGIO drugs, likely because they are early stage...this could matter in 2015-16...and 5) we think President Global Hematology,Jackie Fouse, will talk about all of this at ASH next week...
2) We also are bullish on BMRN for 2015. In sticking with our theme of growing interest in
biotech, we would want to be long BMRN into the Dec 10th analyst event and 5 pipeline
readouts for '15, especially Phase II achondroplasia data in Q2 which should work
regardless: it could be stat sig, but even if not, it could dose higher and there should be
(+) trends that seem likely.
3) VRTX should be a long into early '15 Phase II VX-661 3-month homozygous data which
should look better than first-gen '809 combo. We want to own into potential '809 strong
pricing (we think possibly higher than $225,000 gross price) and USA launch for mid-15...
What we’re saying on GILD: We continue to watch scripts carefully and clearly acknowledge
that analysts are probably "over-modeling" Q4 HCV around $2.7B+ USA, but this is still
"achievable" and potentially higher with inventory stocking. But we think the Street may be
nervous about Q4 holiday impacts, ABBV launch in Dec, ABBV pricing, and 2015
estimates...so stock might be more choppy until clarity emerges later in Q1 on the above
mentioned and company continues to buy back lots of stock...
ASH coming soon in December - key biotech events we are
watching at ASH
ASH will be held in San Francisco from December 6 (Saturday) to December 9 (Tuesday). Key
events we will be following there:
With ASH data that “matters” for Wall Street more incremental than transformative this
year, most data we’re focused on for Sunday/Monday sets in the following:
· Immunotherapy (CAR-T players KITE, JUNO, NVS and PD-1 BMY - responses in Hodgkin's
but zero in multiple myeloma),
· updated data for PCYC, ABBV, INFI, KPTI, MEIP, in blood cancers CLL, myeloma, etc,
· tracking the anti-CD38 antibodies as the potential "next big thing" in multiple myeloma
(CELG, SNY, JNJ),
· incremental updates on "CELG-partnered drugs" from EPZM, AGIO, XLRN.
· AMGN's Phase III ASPIRE in myeloma is presented but key data is generally known.
· Likely most eventful for SGEN and IMGN: Updates should be positive encompassing both
oral and poster presentations with 6 items of note: 1) AETHERA Phase III details, 2)
Phase I SGN-CD33A r/r AML results, which should be updated, 3) Adcetris in earlier stage
HL patients, 4) Phase I SGN-CD19A r/r NHL and ALL results, 5) Phase II polatuzumab/
pinatuzumab r/r NHL update, and 6) potential competitor data in HL. IMGN: IMGN529
Phase I r/r NHL results as well as partnered BT-062 (anti-CD138) and SAR650984 (antCD38) updates in r/r MM are anticipated. SNSS: VALOR Phase III vosaroxin study is a latebreaker and though results are top-lined (negative), details and audience/ KOL reactionscould set the tone for SNSS shares.i-
i listened to it ....it wa very informative...you should listen to GILD presentation from london this morning..another good one.
good luck and good move on the celg. Now by all means go after gild(if u can afford it). Fantastic co. 150 in one year
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I bought a wee chunk at 115. and only did so because I think it's a fantastic company. just read IBD and Barrons etc...it's got the mojo...decided to hold off on gild for the moment but I like the reasoning about how it will survive the abbv competition in hep c space that have been published lately
Listening to the pre-webcast music right now. Thanks for the reminder. I just finished listening to REGN's from yesterday. REGN is up to new all time high today (3%) after yesterdays presentation. Hope we get a similar jump.
I like celg...I've been on the sidelines but think I'll dive in...gild also looks like it could break out of it's trading range....but really I'm decidely long term now....as a trader I get too nervous and blow it...like I did when I sold gild at 51 ish
After reading up on TRC Captial's unsolicited "buyout" of a portion of CELG shares, I've found that they do this all the time, that their offer of buyout is ALWAYS below the market price, if you are foolish enough to accept their offer they can prevent you from selling your shares on the open market and they can back out if the price drops. These folks are SKIRTING the law, what they are doing is totally unethical but within the letter of the law.
From an article from Investing Daily a few years back........
TRC’s trademark strategy is to launch an unsolicited “mini-tender” offering to buy a small percentage of a company’s stock BELOW the market price. TRC then sells any shares tendered and pockets the difference. If the share price sinks below the offer price, TRC can walk away. In fact, it can legally keep investors from backing out, literally locking up their shares until it’s profitable to buy them out.
All of the companies listed above have gotten the word out that TRC’s offer is not official. And they’ve urged shareholders to reject it. One can only wonder, however, about investors in companies that didn’t send out press releases, or what happened to those who didn’t get a warning.
“Unscrupulous,” you say? Surely, yes. But there’s nothing inherently illegal about what TRC is doing. Its offers are always for less than 5 percent of companies’ common stock. That means they’re exempt from following Section 14(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and are only subject to anti-fraud rules under Regulation 14E.
There’s still disclosure required. For example, TRC is forbidden from making untrue statements or omitting material facts from offerings, meaning it has to disclose the details including any lock-up provisions that prevent investors from pulling out. The catch is only someone who really reads the fine print is going to catch them all....
If you are day trading then buying right after Cramer says buy is never a good idea. Long term (6 months to two years) this company will make you a lot of money. They have one of the best pipelines in the business so they will continue to have double digit sales growth for years to come.
Ok thank you for the additional info. All the more, you validate my point to the concerned purchaser at 116.40-----This is a solid hold. GLTA
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Reminder- Celgene presents @ Deutsche Bank 2014 BioFEST in Boston today at 3:25 PM - First Lead presentation by new CFO Peter Kellogg webcast link -- won't post here go to Celgene website or Investorvillage CELG board for link to today's presentation webcast live at 3:25 pm
December 2 - 3:25 PM eastern- Celgene presents at the Deutsche Bank 2014 BioFEST in Boston...First presentation with new Celgene Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Peter Kellogg as lead presenter.
Gugg "CELG attractive ahead of ASH raising target to $133 ($121). AG-221 will generate HIGH LEVEL of excitement-go right into pivotal testing accelerating approval. Raising RLI and Pomalyst ests"...
CELG - BUY - ASH'14 Preview; Expect Positive Revlimid, Pomalyst, and AG-221 Datapoints; Raising PT to $133
December 2, 2014
BRET HOLLEY, PH.D. ANALYST
Investment Thesis: Growth
RAISE PRICE TARGET $133.00 FROM $121.00
Conclusion: We believe CELG is attractive ahead of ASH'14, which should highlight key clinical results and growth prospects for Revlimid in multiple myeloma/lymphoma and Pomalyst in multiple myeloma, as well as raise visibility on CELG's pipeline, especially AG-221. We are raising our PT to $133 from $121 on higher LT Revlimid/Pomalyst sales estimates.
New analyses from Phase III FIRST trial should highlight Revlimid's broad benefit in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). We believe detailed FIRST follow-up results should calm fears regarding Revlimid's efficacy/safety in elderly NDMM. In our view, the results have the potential to broaden Revlimid's use in this patient population, increasing LT U.S./E.U. sales.
Expect positive Ph.IIIb results for Pomalyst in advanced myeloma. Based on results presented in the ASH abstracts and prior results from the MM-003 trial, we expect results from the Ph.IIIb STRATUS trial to further demonstrate Pomalyst's high level of efficacy in advanced myeloma. We expect the reSults to reinforce our view that Pomalyst will gain dominant market share in this setting.
Phase I results for AG-221 should highlight the potential for rapid approval.
We expect an enthusiastic response to Phase I results for AG-221 in advanced/IDH2-mutated lymphomas at ASH, given already reported high levels of efficacy for the drug. Further, given the well-defined patient population for AG-221 and high unmet need, we see a good probability CELG will advance the drug directly into pivotal testing, accelerating the timeline for approval to '17.
Revlimid FIRST results: Results reported in the ASH'14 abstract show that continuous Revlimid plus low-dose dexamethasone (Rev-dex) numerically improved PFS and interim OS in all age groups vs. melphalan-prednisone-thalidomide (MPT). Although we expect slightly reduced efficacy for Rev-dex in 75 year old patient cohort vs. the
I think you are a little low on the earnings side. Celgene actually gives out estimates to 2017 and they are usually low when revisited. On chart #12 of the annual meeting presentation they estimated revenue growth of 21% and earnings growth of 26% from 2013 to 2017. If I remember from one of the recent conference calls management said that these numbers will be revised upward adding an additional year. Considering that the forward PE (2015 earnings into current price) is only about 23.5X, this stock is cheap. It never seems to get expensive either, due to the pipeline and continued ability of management to deliver.
Looking for a new investment in this sector and am considering moving my gains from AVNR into CELG. Thanks for the info you provided and will continue my DD and make the move in the next few days!
Are u kidding me? Bought 700 shares of Celg the day after Thanksgiving. Hold, and sleep well at night. This is a great co. with an astronomical future. Do a little research and read the fantastic articles about Celg. P/E a little rich at 21 but very sustainable. Also have 1500 shs of Gild, another spectacular co. Hold the Celg, and watch the growth-----projected at 20% per year through 2017. I think we easily go back to 135 in one year.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I hope you are kidding. I had exited my long CELG and had no position. I shorted CELG and have already covered it. I covered it because it could bounce again and I wasn't willing to risk that when I had a quick profit. Time will tell if you make money on a long position from $116.40. Or will the 116 area turn out to be a place where selling comes in again?