This is an outright bear attack we are experiencing in biotech. Oversold is right but that doesn't mean we will immediately reverse. Wait til some of these earnings comeout above expectations and we'll find out just how well we'll do in 2016!
ISI - TTP - the market is WRONG on this--TTP APPEARS TO BE A POSITIVE for the industry!---Thus, nothing will change in the US or EU because of this agreement!
Several of you have sent me emails/calls today blaming today's sell off on the recently negotiated TTP (trans-pacific partnership) treaty. The details have not been released, but certain summary points are in the public record.
The main concern of drug/biotech investors is that the so called government granted "exclusivity" period for biologics (during which the law prevents a a bio-similar from launching even if there are no relevant patents). Bear in mind that government granted exclusivity periods are SEPARATE from patents and are really only important if a drug/biologic has no patents or has weak patents.
In the US, the biologic exclusivity period is 12 years (this was considered a big win for industry when it was passed as part of the ACA). Obama would like it shortened to 8 years. The exclusivity period in the EU is 10 years. (Note - both can be extended via certain techniques). In countries like Australia, it's only 5 years.
The news reports about this issue have been confusing. The "impression" they have left is that the TTP mandates a 5 year exclusivity period, which would be a significant cut from the current US law, which stipulates 12 years.
My understanding, however, is that the five years is FLOOR for exclusivity period. Thus, nothing will change in the US or EU because of this agreement! And in countries with shorter exclusivity periods, like Australia's 5 years, the TTP actually encourages them to extend it either officially or unofficially (using certain regulatory and administrative requirements) to 8 years.
Thus, net/net the TTP APPEARS TO BE A POSITIVE for the industry!
So, please. Please. Please stop selling ;)
Am livid re Hillary. And I am the educated female usually Democratic leaning voter she wants on her side. She is a total #$%$ (remember Whitewater and that commodities deal) and a grand stander. Her remarks not only have lost investors tons, but have caused. I am sure, biotech companies to rethink their plans re research to the detriment of sick patients.
anyone voting for Hillary? If you really want to see stocks crushed Sanders would make fat Hillary look well you know.
On the 1 year chart. The 5 year chart seems to be trying to find a bottom. I don't think this is going to be a case of we go right back to the highs. I think we will get back to above $120 where we will hang out for a while to do some base building. Oddly, the 10 year chart still shows us in a longer term down trend for the past 2 months. I would like to see that one turn around before I load up long term. We will have to see how much push earnings can give us at the end of October.