I was starting to think it would never reach $110. Patience is rewarded. This has been a great trade this year buying at $110 and below and selling up at $120 and above. That gives me 1/4 of my trading position.
I am long CELG (years) and believe it has much more upside in store for the next 5 years. When companies like Celgene, Gilead, and Biogen become SO PROFITABLE, they can then go hunting for the next big thing. Diabetes is a huge area that none them have looked at yet. There are a few good looks in that sector. Sanofi just went shopping - still hoping their investment in Mannkind (Afrezza, inhaled insulin) pays off. But they just announced a partnership with Lexicon - LXRX for their dual SGLT inhibitor LX4211 called Sotagliflozin. I have been in LXRX for years and the long term bet is really starting to pay off. MNKD may be a VERY high risk but potentially HUGE reward - if they announce a second partnership for a next generation inhaled drug - that stock might be one to retire on...:). Actually it is the most volatile stock I own and watch so not for stress monsters! I love CELG and wish good luck to all long investors here.
Can anyone explain details of reference made by RBC in a 11/10/15 Yahoo Finance story wherein the writers refer to what would appears to be a legal "settlement" story concerning CELG. It sounds like the issue has weighed down CELG stock price but I can't find any specific information on the internet as to what this is all about. Thanks.
CELG has 25 % EPS growth over the next 5 years. MRK has 5% EPS growth over the next 5 years. In 5 years MRK will be lucky to have $2.50 in Earnings while CELG will have 3x that by then. You get what you pay for. Either you want 20% a year capital appreciation or a 3.3% dividend. I will take the 20%.
Today it currently stands at a PEG ratio of 1. I would think this is a good entry point. Even if PE rate stays the same, stock should appreciate 20% per year.
I also do not play the biotech sector through ETFs for a long-term holding, but if I were to buy one it would be the BBH.
These are my long term numbers. That would get us to around 250 Bil market cap. 2024 through 2029 will be challenging since a lot of revenues will be need to made up as current drugs go off market. I didn't include any partner drugs in my estimates or anything that hasn't at least gotten phase I data yet.
Revlimid - 9 Bil Patent 2024 EU and 2027 US
Abraxane - 1.5 Bil Patent 2022 EU and 2026 US
Pomalyst - 1.5 Bil Patent 2023 EU and 2024 US
Otezla - 3 Bil Patent 2028 EU and 2024 US
GED-301 - 5 Bil Market 2019
Ozanimod - 5 Bil Market 2018
CC-486 Potential 2B
CC-220 Potential 2B
RPC-4046 Potential 1.5B
Totoal 25 Billion by 2024
The market cap's about $100 bill. now. How big could it be, say in 10 years or so? Thoughts? Bioinvest2k? Others?
Right now, CELG seems like the best risk/reward in big biotech to me...
I don't think that would be a deal. CELG doesn't want to be bought. It has far more upside potential as a stand alone company. There aren't too many companies big enough to buy CELG and the one that could, I wouldn't want to be a shareholder of.
I'll keep this short and sweet...Google "PennyStock101' signup for their free newsletter and get their next trade alert. Come back and thank me tomorrow!
If your going to play biotech through an ETF, I think you need to look at the 2 best. The IBB is leveraged to the big caps and is thus far more stable. The XBI is more weighted to the small caps spec biotechs. When using an ETF, there is no valuation or fundamentals so it all about technicals. Personally, I don't use ETF's. I think they are for people who can't pick good biotech companies. I understand not everyone has that aptitude and should probably use and ETF. Right now the market hates risk. Anything that seems remotely risky is just getting crushed. For that reason alone I would pick the IBB for now since the big caps are most stable. The XBI will be better once the risk appetite comes back to the market. From my look of the chart, XBI is in a good 5 year up trend of rising MACD, but the 1 year chart shows its consolidating and should pull back in the near term.