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Celgene Corp. (CELG) Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Could Pfizer Actually Offer 160 per share on Monday

    by wrb630 Feb 20, 2015 11:13 PM

    hope has no place in investing. That being said, I have thought in this merger atmosphere Pfizer, JNJ, ABT and a hand full of others might be interested in the huge predictable growth and value that CELG offers, but they will have to pay up, I'm more than happy to wait for $375.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    AMGN or CELG

    by yhooiscool Mar 10, 2015 5:18 PM

    I think your decision of sell AMGN and buy CELG is a very smart one. AMGN has already priced in much of its out years while CELG is still trading at a discount. CELG is currently the cheapest biotech in the industry on the out years earnings. I have checked this personally to look for good values. Every biotech I look at trades at 20x or more its 2017 earnings already while CELG only trades at 16x. CELG is getting discounted right now because of its patent case. This should clear up within the next 12 months. After that it will get a premium to its peers from its powerful pipeline. The patent case is going overwhelmingly in favor of CELG with 3 of 4 claims already dismissed and the last one looking to be a win for CELG. I think this give it the most value simply because this patent case is causing CELG to trade at a discount to its peers.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Celgene, Kinder Morgan and Actavis Set to Join the S&P 100; Several Constituent Changes Announced for S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    will never see 118 in 10 lifetimes

    by get_rich_carefully Dec 10, 2014 1:59 PM

    Can't even dignify such a stupid post. Totally ignorant.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • My comment under the new seeking alpha article...

    Great article....CELG is a cheap growth stock. Expect CELG to double again to $200 after EU front line Revlimid approval, patent settlement case and data sets at ASCO and other major medical meetings from partners like AGIO, XLRN, BLUE, MPSYF and OMED...CELG won three more motions in the patent case recently...Natco/ACT in big trouble. Revlimid patent will last to 2026+ and will be selling $10 billion a yr at 90%+ margins by then. . 2 yr Otezla data released last qtr at ACR showed its safer than biologics with efficacy getting better with time that should lead to insurers REQUIRING this oral, cheaper and safer drug be used until failure BEFORE approving reimbursement for dangerous injectable biologics with leukemia, lymphoma, tuberculosis and infection risk and without the required monthly lab work needed with biologics. Guggenheim says mgt expects to continue to take 80% of the pre-biologic psoriasis market

    (Can’t post lin see seeking alpha article or this post on investor village CELG board)

    CELG has enormous earnings leverage and is cheap on a PE to growth basis. BMO raised target to $163 after great earnings...Leerink, RBC, Piper, Citi, RBC, JMP many more also increased targets - see some at bottom of this comment.

    CELG quite simply has more near term catalysts than ANY S&P 500 or Healthcare stock in the entire market and that is why it is ready to break out to new highs in the next few weeks imo... The company confirmed that its Crohn's data will be published in a MAJOR medical journal "very,very soon" I suspect it is in NEJM soon and this plus front line approval sends it through all time highs . CELG recently confirmed it expects Revlimid to steal 10% market share (on its way to being a $10 bill/yr drug with 95% gross margins). Credit Suisse said in a recent report CELG has over 100 company sponsored trials in 50 diseases - over 30 are Phase 3 trials.... CELG presented OVER 160 abstracts at the ASH meeting in December - this the biggest hematology meeting of the yr - and once again dominated it. CELG has equity interests in many top level cutting edge small biotech stocks and controls drugs or science of 25 of them including AGIO and XLRN - both released recent data that made their stocks surge (AGIO is up from the $20s to over $100 recently and CELG owns 2 of their drugs and 14% of their stock) Not one penny is priced into CELG stock for these 25 partnerships or the equity ownership. CELG owns 14% of AGIO, 10% Acetylon, 14% XLRN, 11% EPZM, 3% Morphosys. 14% NantBioScience & 5% of Sutro @9/30. Nothing is priced in CELG stock for these 25 deals, the drugs controlled or the equity owned:

    (Can’t post lin see seeking alpha article or this post on investor village CELG board)

    CELG has the BEST gross margin in the ENTIRE S&P 500 and it still trades at a discount to its real long term growth rate. Revlimid (HUGE front line upside and NHL indication expansion upside - duration of therapy will surge & that is the #1 variable in increasing CELG EPS), Pomalyst (ramping now in EU after approval and reimbursement agreements) , Otezla (approved in psoriasis in Sept now ramping in U S in addition to previously approved Psoriatic Arthritis & EU just approved) and GED-031 long term analyst estimates are VERY conservative as are EPS estimates. The company continues to buy BILLIONS of its own stock back as it has done during the recent triple. It's best in class CFO Dr Fouse is now running the Hematology and Oncology business so you can expect trials to accelerate and business development to be accretive to earnings in those areas. Merrill Lynch added it to it US #1 Top Pick List even after the double and why many analysts just raised targets after yet another beat and raise qtr in Q3 and then at JPM CELG surprised adding 2020 guidance of $20 billion in revenue and $12.50 EPS but what was shocking was the detailed list of items that ARE NOT IN THIS NUMBER...very conservative...In Q4 CEO Hugin added $15 million more stock to his big pile already via a stock option exercise last week....

    DB just raised target to $160 - Leerink to $150 - BMO to $163

    (Can’t post lin see seeking alpha article or this post on investor village CELG board fo all three of these target raise report links)

    CELG's spectacular GED-031 Crohns data should be in NEJM soon & should receive both US & EU front line Revlimid approval (add $2/3 billion in sales at 95% margins) in the next 2 wks....Add before then

  • Reply to

    Could Pfizer Actually Offer 160 per share on Monday

    by wrb630 Feb 20, 2015 11:13 PM keitht70 Feb 22, 2015 4:04 AM Flag

    Celgene's revenue guidance for 2020 is $20 billion/year. Intermune was purchased based on forward projected five year revenues times 8, so if you apply the same purchase price for Celgene based on their on forward guidance it would be $160 billion or around $200/share. So there's no way that CELG would take LESS than what Roche paid for a one trick pony in Intermune. And considering Celgene's partnerships in cutting edge development areas aren't even valued in those numbers then it would take OVER $200/share to even talk. That's way too pricey for PFE imo.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Was extremely positive. Peter Kellogg talked about how much upside is built into their 2020 guidance. He also talked about the patent case outstanding and things look very good for CELG to win in all cases. This is probably why CELG had a nice rally today.

    Sentiment: Buy


  • Reply to

    CELG trades in its own universe

    by traderbob40 Jan 12, 2015 1:21 PM

    In the last 24 minutes CELG gained another $1.45. Going higher over time people so get in now.

  • Amazing Quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • We already know I have done my best guess estimates on several of CELG's drugs. I have done pretty good with this so far calling the 3B potential of GED-301 in July of 2014. As I was going over CELG's pipeline from the JPM conference I came across a new compound. CC-220 for SLE (systemic lupus erythematosus). This disease affects mostly women between 20 and 40 and is believed to affect anywhere between 200 and 400 thousand women. This look to be another potential 1.5 to 2B drug that no one has called out yet. This is part of their new I&I franchise. CELG said I&I would reach 3B by 2020. With Otezla, GED-301 and CC-220, you could see their I&I franchise growth to 7B by 2025. Might not get there by 2020, but it certainly looks like it is very possible with Otezla earning 2B, GED-301 earning 3B and CC-220 potential being worth 1.5 to 2B. By 2025, I could see CELG's I&I franchise growing to the same amount of sales that all of CELG earned in just 2014.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • At the JPM Healthcare conference, CELG gave guidance for 2015. Their estimates are lower then the current estimates. Maybe they are just being conservative. We know they projected to have headwinds of up to 100 mil in currency impacts this year. Revenue Guidance was 9 - 9.5 B and EPS guidance was 4.60 to 4.75 with the mid point being 4.67. If you put the current 1.25x growth rate on this estimate, you reach $151 price target for CELG this year. Personally, I think CELG was just being conservative because of the strong dollar. This would be roughly a 25% gain for CELG this year. That is still better then the S&P could ever deliver. I like this valuation here. It leaves plenty of room for upside surprise.

  • This guy is a joke. Anyone who sells because of this is falling for his scheme. He is short these biotechs and is talking trash to try to make a quick buck. He may have the fortitude to attack a few small companies in hopes to create enough scare to make some real cash. We all know CELG's patents have been challenged in the past, and they are solid. Natco couldn't even put a dent in them. Kyle Bass is just a rich hedge fund manager manipulating companies with inflammatory rhetoric in hopes to make money on his short positions. What he is doing is actually stock manipulation and is illegal. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't get charged by the SEC. Even if he does have the balls to try to take on companies like BIIB and CELG, they will burry him in legal costs. My take is: use the foolishness of other to get into this best of breed biotech while it is still cheap. I know I am.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Looking for breakout

    by gsunwab Feb 6, 2015 10:44 AM

    Biotechs have stalled out for a while. There is only so much money in the market and traders move it around. They seem to be buying in other areas. Not concerned since I just sit here with my shares and wait till the next bit of news or earnings again propels the stock higher. We have very predictable high year over year revenues, earnings and cash flow out to a least 2020.

  • With celg headed to 12.50 eps by 2020 he is selling all biotechs? and putting that money where? 20 points a year to $220+ by 2020. So lets see, CEO vs Shri Kumar, who do you listen to?

  • I own some GILD but GILD and CELG are in different places - and CELG going down because of GILD guidance & the unique Hep C pricing issue is just another opportunity....just like Oct / early Jan...

    This Hep C battle is really very unique - as I said on the first time GILD news hit us to 80s in Oct and again when I added the dip to 103 during the overreaction in early Jan - the total $$ sales + having a new interchangable drug just approved makes it unique....Anyone who overreacted and thinks this is a new war in pricing was imo short sighted. This has happened for yrs with ESRX on HUGE drugs with interchangeable alternatives - as I said Lipitor was not allowed under ESRX for yrs....The shear dollars per yr caused this unique battle - it will not have a near term effect on other companies without interchangable drugs. Time to focus on what is truly important.

    With CELG you have a company on the cusp of EXPLOSIVE growth....slowly proving all the Otezla naysayers wrong - just wait until the GILD type situation works in Celgene's/Otezla's favor and more insurers REQUIRE safer, cheaper, oral Otezla until failure BEFORE approving reimbursement for injectable biologics with infection, tuberculosis, lymphoma and leukemia risk for a non-life threatening disease. Somewhere around Feb 22/23 we will get the quick one-two punch of front line approval in Revlimid in both the US and EU - this and the early approval that is coming in FL and the other combination, triplet and NHL approvals that will increase duration will push Revlimid to $10 billion a yr at 95% margins and a 17% or less tax rate....can you say EPS leverage?

    Abraxane is now the drug of choice for combination trials in solid tumors - Revlimid the drug of choice in hematology combo trials - with MANY other companies actually paying for trials that will expand both drugs use and duration of therapy (duration is the number one EPS accelerator in the CELG model per ISI)...

    Pomalyst will also get some free combo trial help and is still rolling out internationally....its sales are also underestimated medium term IMO in almost every model...

    Oral Vidaza (AZA) is coming as are more imids even more powerful than Revlimid and Pomalyst....

    AND THEN there are the 25+ partnerships with some of the best game changing small bios in gene therapy, CAR T etc like BLUE, AGIO, XLRN, Morphosys....I am convinced with each data release that this stealth pipeline will add at least $5 to $7 billion a yr in revenue down the road....and ZERO is in current CELG stock price...AGIO drugs will get imo breakthrough designation and likely be approved based on Phase 2 data....XLRN will be acquired by CELG before commercialization and imo will be accretive to EPS...

    Those of us who were at JP Morgan first smiled at all the CELG execs that were on the main session panel and in the audience....but then when they all started adding comments at the breakout session - we all again were sure that this is the best top 3, Top 5 and Top 10 executives in all of biotech and almost every analyst is greatly greatly underestimating what they are about to accomplish....Dr Fouse alone will stun people with the breadth, depth and speed of the hematology and oncology pipeline, partnerships and successes imo....

    When you ask Dr Fouse about a CELG dividend....she smiles and tells you it may be a little early because of all of the partnership and internal drug options and mostly because of the enormous revenue and earnings growth coming that is not priced in the current stock...I suggest EVERYONE go look at the charts from JP Morgan as to what is NOT in the 2020 $20 billion $12.50 guidance...its STAGGERING...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Entry Price

    by redshirtsophomore Mar 23, 2015 11:25 AM

    Now is a good price to enter. since it broke the resistance yesterday on big volume. this is buying opportunity at this point.

  • Reply to

    Gilead vs Celgene

    by sterndrive2000 Mar 19, 2015 10:56 AM

    GILD is a lame duck while CELG is the best biotech in the business. There is no comparison. CELG wins that argument hand down.

  • Since CELG hit 114 low today, a 10% correction has already been accomplished. I don't see too much downside risk from here. Just mho of course.

118.68+1.02(+0.87%)Mar 27 4:00 PMEDT