RBC - Markman briefing documents released, we think CELG well positioned - Otezla could be a blockbuster product given multiple indications. Reiterate Outperform and $190 target...
April 8, 2014
Markman briefing documents released, we think CELG well positioned
The public briefing documents for upcoming Markman hearing were released, email us for the PDF copies.
Markman briefing documents were released and our layman's
interpretation is that CELG is generally well positioned. In the opposition
filings, and beyond even the core fundamental arguments for the novelty
and merits of the polymorph patent and other methods patents such as
REMS system etc (CELG cites validity and infringement of 18 total patents
and additional four new ones) CELG additionally also claims or notes
NatCo has "unclean hands" (a notable defense mechanism) in part of their
belief that NatCo's had illicit methods of obtaining Revlimid for testing
and/or in their nature and part of limiting and stonewalling CELG's ability
to get key testimony from a witness involved in getting NatCo the Revlimid
for bioequivalance testing. As page 11 states "clearly Defendants have
much to fear...and are willing to go to great lengths to prevent Celgene
from obtaining his discovery."
Note recently Mylan also sued CELG claiming their inability to get access
to Revlimid outside of the REMS program in order to perform testing to
file a generic (bioequivalent) version. It is possible in our view that Mylan
was unable to initially get access or chose not via the methods that NatCo
Our call on CELG is simple: Otezla launch should be fine, consensus keeps
grinding lower now at $90M for 2014, expectations are already low on that
launch, but the big key is the result after the Markman hearing pushed
to 5/15 (from 4/29) and ruling later in summer. We think 65% chance it
rules well for the Celgene and/or a settlement could happen later this year,
and there's a big "un
Don't confuse dumb luck with excellent advice. Anyone that posts like you has probably lost more millions than have made, or is it really thousands or hundreds. Live and learn.
Only if you wan't to take out a loan to cover your losses. Shorting is playing with fire. Live and learn.
It would not surprise me. CELG trades lower PE on 2016 EPS than Merck, Pfizer, Bristol Myers. A large pharma could buy CELG for 50% premium and would be accretive. They may not get another shot at CELG for this kind of price ever again. The nuisance no merit lawsuit from Mylan will soon blow over as courts reject it (and they will). Then the charts will start "working". Then CELG will head to new highs as funds pile in at higher levels.
Just noise. Mylan is very litigious. It is their strategy. CELG has no obligation to sell their drugs to Mylan and their drugs are on patent for several more years. This is typical Mylan strategy from what I've read. The REMS has been upheld by courts so this will go nowhere for Mylan and then CELG will be loved once again. All the funds that sold low will buy back high as they always do.
We've all seen this before. A depressed stock with little reason to be selling as low as it is. Good earnings---good guidance---most probable stock split coming---lots of upgrades. Yet here we are. WWBD ( what would Buffett do)?
I'd agree with you there, CELG is dirt cheap at 139. 150's would put it into average PE ratio where it could consolidate for a while
For the most part CELG is adhering to what the IBB is doing. People without jobs can't pay for expensive drugs. And Obama isn't going to fix the problem with good paying jobs any other way than to just raise the min wage. Which is a joke. Raise the min wage------raise taxes right along with it as it comes out of those checks. So its a raise for government-----not people. Oh, and don't forget about all the sales taxes collected as they spend their new found money.
I think it will turn into a dribble until the Mylan vulchers get crushed. Celg is a huge co with the very best of best attorneys who are out to protect CELG and win. Mylan will never stop suing every for every drug. They probably have a whole department assigned to new lawsuits. They do win a lot but they are getting to be very tiring. So I say CELG stays on the down until this is settled and you just cant put a per cent guess on it. Hopefully it will base out and become a trading stock for awhile.