CELG is a large firm with a $69 billion market cap. It is likely to grow around 20% next year which is outstanding for a firm this size. However, the multiple is near 50 and that is quite rich for a firm this large growing at this rate. There are plenty of other stocks growing at a faster rate with a much lower multiple.
CELG is a great company and is likely to hit the $200 mark. But, there are quite a few momentum players in the biotech space pumping these stocks higher. I think this one is a bit ahead of itself.
with 15.00 to 16.00 in earnings for 2015 and selling at 10 times forward earnings with the growth potential of many many new drugs it shouldn't be selling at multiples of stogy big cap drug companies like merck, PFE act.
stock should at least be caring a market multiple at the very least which would put it up in the 200+
These are the same astute folks who downgraded CELG last September whenit was at 75. And they get paid for this. Well paid. Since we know that a monkey throwing darts can do at least as good a job of stockpicking, why shouldn't these analysts be making minimum wage?
I made $5000.00 in the last 13 days buying this stock at 160.98 and selling today. Thanks Rob S for all the updates -- I probably should have held but my technical strategy is always to sell at previously all-time highs. I am worried about overall market conditions bringing CELG down vice the prospects of ASH. I'm probably wrong but for a small-time investor like me $5,000 profit is a big deal. Looking to back in the dips.
Investment Thesis 12-month rating Buy
Celgene 12m price target US$200.00
 We see less risk to upcoming data at ASH (specifically the MM-020 full data) than prior, which we think if uncontroversial would eliminate a reason to not own the stock. We think that with a clean MM-020 result, Revlimid will be out of the woods in terms of clinical and regulatory risk.  We see upside to Street estimates (and Celgene's 2015-17 financial goals) on multiple line items, and are 9-25% above consensus on 2015-17 consensus. Specifically, we point to the potential for Revlimid/dex-Kyprolis combination on the basis of the ph3 ASPIRE study (or other Rev-based triple regimens) to significantly lengthen Revlimid duration of therapy in relapsed myeloma.  We are not fazed by the 19.7x P/E target implied here based on favorable growth and operating margin comps to biotech,
healthcare, and the broader markets. Indeed, we view CELG as a
de facto holding in large cap growth.
Our upside scenario of $220 on CELG shares is driven by multiple
expansion from a better-than-expected result in the MM-020 study in addition to mature survival data from the MM-015 trial. Additionally, a more positive outlook on apremilast also drives our upside.
Full report is awesome must read see InvestorVillage CELG message board won't fit here
UBS Beyond ASH: Solid LT Growth. Upgrade to Buy (from Neutral); Raising PT to $200 (from $163)...Upside to cons ests...Still cheap...Catalysts coming...Aspire could double RLI duration...duration inc meaningful to revenue....
Beyond ASH: Solid LT Growth. Upgrade to Buy.
Upgrading to Buy (from Neutral); Raising PT to $200
We are upgrading our rating on CELG shares to Buy (from Neutral) on higher conviction in CELG's ability to deliver a 26% EPS CAGR over the next 4 years without significant event setbacks. In our view, this weekend's ASH meeting could represent a further derisking event for CELG shares, followed by room for Street numbers to go higher (possibly with raised 2015-2017 company targets in January). Here we update our model, and find previously underappreciated upside through longer 2nd/3rd-line myeloma Revlimid duration of therapy, optionality on other product lines, and higher operating margins.
Key tenets of our Buy thesis
 Following our discussions with mgmt, we perceive less risk to upcoming data at ASH (specifically the MM-020 full data) than prior. We think that with a clean MM-020 result, Revlimid will be out of the woods in terms of clinical and regulatory risk.  We see upside to Street estimates (and Celgene's 2015-17 targets) on multiple line items, and are 9% above consensus on 2015 EPS. Specifically, we point to the potential for Revlimid/dex-Kyprolis combination on the basis of the ph3 ASPIRE study (or other Revbased triple regimens) to significantly lengthen Revlimid duration of therapy in relapsed myeloma.  We are not fazed by the 19.7x P/E target implied here based on favorable growth and operating margin comps to biotech, healthcare, and the broader markets.
Indeed, we view CELG as a core holding in large cap growth.
Comps suggest CELG should be a core holding
Valuation: Buy with $200 PT ($163 previously)
And Speaking of Top Ranked Execs - Institutional Investors 2014 New All-American Executive Rankings just out and Celgene's own Dr Jackie Fouse is NUMBER 1 RANKED BOTH BUY SIDE AND SELL SIDE IN Biotech!!!
I should have waited -- uggh! Zack's nuetral rating along with broad market sell-off hurting today
I Like EPZM here as well. I've accumulating small position since drop but like I said earlier I wish options were available. in terms of a pure epigenetic play there is no bigger play than Epizyme. Their patents on HMT inhibitors are rock solid. Looking forward for results at ASH.
What about OncoMed? Wished I'd seen that one coming. It was on my radar but never triggered.
urrent dosing cohort of 80mg/m2 may offer near-term opportunity reassess activity. A fifth dose cohort of 80mg/m2 (21 out 28 days continuous infusion) is currently enrolling patients, with a 20-patient expansion cohort evaluating a starting dose of 80mg/m2 without the drug holiday exclusively in patients with MLL-r slated to begin by year-end. While the company has not set expectations for further Phase I updates in 2013, we suspect the current dosing cohort may achieve the requisite proximal and sustained H3K79 methyl inhibition to effect responses, offering a meaningful near-term opportunity to reassess activity of ‘5676, particularly if the trial is amended to allow for 28-day continuous infusion through petitioning the IRB.
With expectations as low as they are, we spot appreciable upside from incremental clarity around EPZ - 5676 heading into ASH. With expectations as low as they are, we spot appreciable upside from incremental clarity around EPZ - 5676 heading into ASH. Much in the way ARIA (MP) has seen acute gains (+77 % since November 21) in reaction to the formal CHMP decision to keep Iclusig EU marketing approval largely intact, we suspect relatively incremental data could have an outsized impact on EPZM near - term. Longer - term, we continue to view EPZM as a rare opportunity to invest in a best – of - breed, pure play in the epigenetics space, offerin g both clinical - stage assets and a robust drug discovery platform.
See CELG Investor village board for full report
JMP on CELG partner EPZM...." we spot appreciable upside from incremental clarity around EPZ - 5676 heading into ASH.we suspect relatively incremental data could have an outsized impact on EPZM near - term. $40 target. Outperform"
JMP Securities December 3, 2013 - Biotechnology - Company Update pizyme, Inc.(EPZM)
Focus Centered on Qualification of ‘5676 Activity Heading into ASH
MARKET OUTPERFORM | Price: $20.81 | Target Price: $40.00
Upcoming ASH event offers opportunity for clarity regarding preliminary treatment effects seen with EPZ-5676 and the high unmet need in MLL-rearranged leukemia; reiterate our Market Outperform rating on Epizyme and our $40 price target.Epizyme will host an R&D event in conjunction with the 55th ASH Annual Meeting on Monday, December 9, wherein invited physician investigators, including Martin S. Tallman of Memorial Sloan-Kettering, are expected to provide further color regarding the recently disclosed Phase I data with DOT1L inhibitor EPZ-5676 in patients with mixed lineage leukemia (MLL-r). In our view, further characterization of the treatment effects described thus far and their predictive significance in the ongoing dose escalation and expansion cohort Phase I trial have the potential to alleviate some of the negative sentiment saddling EPZM in the weeks following the Phase I data release November 14. In addition, a detailed review of pathogenesis and treatment paradigm in synovial sarcoma by Charles Roberts of the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute is expected to yield further insight into the opportunities and clinical prospects with EZH2 inhibitor EPZ-6438 in solid tumors. We derive our $40 price target through a combination of NPV sum-of-the-parts and standardized CAGR valuation methodologies.
The Street underappreciates the significance of treatment effects seen to date with ‘5676, in our view. As reviewed previously in our 11/14 note and shown in Figures 1 and 2, results from the dose escalation Phase I study thus far have been a range of surrogate treatment effects, including reductions to circulating blast counts, bone marrow blast cell differentiation, and resolution of symptoms, including leukocytosis (abnormally high white blood cell count and leukemia cutis (skin lesions due to infiltrating leukocytes). While complete remission remains the benchmark for establishing ‘5676 clinical activity, we believe the effects seen to date are positive indicators, connecting the dots to meaningful activity with higher doses and longer duration on therapy. Expert and ‘5676-specific anecdotal commentary by the physician panel should help contextualize Phase I results within the current prognosis for MLL-r patients and better define clinical significance.
Sunday, December 8, 2013
2:55pm Hall F -- Initial Phase 3 Results Of The First Trial (MM-020/IFM 07 01) In Newly Diagnosed MM Patients Ineligible For Stem Cell Transplantation CELG
6:30-8:30pm Hall G-Phase II Randomized Study of Lenalidomide or Lenalidomide and Rituximab as Maintenance Therapy Following Standard Chemotherapy For Patients With Intermediate-High/High Risk Diffuse Large B-C CELG
6:30-8:30pm Hall G Prognostic Factors Affecting Progression Free Survival For Multiple Myeloma Patients Receiving Lenalidomide Maintenance After Autologous Transplantation. Follow-Up Analysis Of The IFM 2005-02 Trial CELG
6:30-8:30pm Hall G Efficacy and Safety of Pomalidomide Plus Low-Dose Dexamethasone in Advanced Multiple Myeloma: Results of Randomized Phase 2 and 3 Trials (MM-002/MM-003) CELG
8:00-9:30pm CELG investor event CELG
Monday, December 9, 2013
PFS2 In Elderly Patients With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (NDMM): Results From The MM-015 Study CELG
11:15am 393-394 Lenalidomide Maintenance After Stem-Cell Transplantation For Multiple Myeloma: Follow-Up Analysis Of The IFM 2005-02 Trial
CELG 11:30am 393-394 Lenalidomide Maintenance Therapy In Multiple Myeloma: A Meta-Analysis Of Randomized Trials CELG
Barclays Capital Inc Equity Research 2 December 2013 U.S. Biotechnology ASH Conference Preview
The American Society of Hematology (ASH) conference will be held on December 7-10 in New Orleans. We have provided a brief preview of what we would focus on at the conference as well as a schedule with key sessions.
CELG focus will be on Revlimid maintenance therapy: There are four main presentations for Revlimid at ASH: MM-020, MM-015, IFM 2005-02, and a metaanalysis of Revlimid as maintenance therapy. Overall, we expect these results to be positive for CELG as they demonstrate benefit in the use of Revlimid as maintenance therapy. Based on the abstracts, Revlimid was able to show an early survival trend at 37 month follow-up in MM-020 Revlimid/dexamethasone (Rd) until disease progression vs. melphalan/prednisone/Thalomid (MPT)). MM-015 was able to show an improvement in progression-free survival but no separation in overall survival. The meta-analysis of four phase III trials evaluating Revlimid as maintenance therapy showed significant improvement in PFS and modest improvement in overall survival. The IFM 2005-02 abstract stirred up concerns as median PFS2 was shorter in the Revlimid arm (10 months) than placebo (18 months). However, this is a result of a difference in calculation method and a reverse cross-over as Revlimid patients were stopped early and given placebo while placebo patients received active drugs following progression.
Dont think Im going to see 160 again (lost opportunity) --- possibly Friday's calendar data may make a full market sell off
I'll put it to you like this- I've been long on ALQA for a few years. When things popped after the r/s, I decided that when it came back down to 6/share (6.35+/- at the time) I would increase my holdings... Didn't get that chance. This stock is a true rarity that, backed by a solid management team, has a pretty strong looking future. Would you rather be glad you did, or sorry you didn't?
Sentiment: Strong Buy