not a huge premium, but bodes well for your April 125's. We should be well into the 130's by April OPEX.
Not an expert but that sounds like a huge premium for options expiring in a week. I have quite a bit of the April 125s so hope this bodes well for them.
4025 Feb 27th contracts at price around 1.07 - weekly options expiring next Friday
Hard to say, I think some people come on here to try to talk stuff down when they go long.
Since he was a short, I'd imagine he got IN to cover his shorts (likely left a skid mark in them). ; )
Nomura-This EU CELG approval a $3.4bn incremental revenue opportunity.Watch for ASCO Transplant Eligible OS Data to Expand Label also..
Remains USD 149.00
ELG.OQ CELG US
EQUITY: AMERICAS BIOTECHNOLOGY
Quantifying EU NDMM Opportunity
Watch for ASCO Transplant Eligible OS Data
We believe EU Revlimid approval in transplant-ineligible NDMM patients
should open a $3.4bn incremental revenue opportunity for Celgene. Celgene
remains our top large-cap pick, given: 1) the potential for acceleration in
Revlimid growth following approval for first line/maintenance; 2) visibility on
label expansion opportunities for Revlimid in lymphoma; and 3) advancement
of the pipeline into late-stage trials that could result in approval of four-to-six
new drugs prior to 2020. These factors support our view that Celgene’s longterm
guidance represents a floor, with multiple sources of upside.
EU approval could address 75% of first line MM. CELG announced that
Revlimid in newly diagnosed MM (NDMM) in transplant-ineligible patients
was approved in Europe, in line with our and the Street’s expectations.
About 25% of NDMM patients are transplant-ineligible, but in reality, most
patients choose not to get transplants. As a result, we assume about 75% of
patients who do not get transplants will be eligible with Revlimid treatment.
A $3.4bn incremental revenue opportunity. We currently assume 14%
Revlimid share in NDMM SCT ineligible patients, with 1st-line revenue of
$155mn at 12-month duration. Our peak sales assumption in 1st line is 75%
share in transplant-ineligible patients in induction (75% of total NDMM
patients), and at 12-month duration and $4,226 per month, our Revlimid
revenue estimate is $930mn, or $775mn in incremental revenue. However,
patients will continue Revlimid after induction therapy (maintenance
therapy) and we currently assume $1.8bn peak revenue in Revlimid in
NDDM. This is based on total duration of 35 months (12-month induction
plus 23-month maintenance). Therefore, this morning’s approval gives us
$3.4bn in incremental peak revenues in 1st line and maintenance sales.
ASCO data in transplant-eligible patients could be filed to broaden the
label. CELG mentioned on its 4Q call that updated overall survival data in
transplant-eligible patients will be presented at ASCO this year and we think
many investors missed its importance. In our opinion, the trial has now
reached overall survival benefit and CELG may be able to file based on this
data. European approval is possible in 2017, which would broaden the
Revlimid label to the 25% NDMM patients who get transplants.
Source: Nomura estimates, FactSet
Our View vs The Street
($mn except per share) 2015E 2016E 2017E
NSI Total Revenue $9,228 $11,537 $13,848
Street Total Revenue $9,279 $11,191 $13,231
NSI vs.Street ‐0.6% 3.1% 4.7%
NSI non‐GAAP EPS $4.70 $6.35 $8.10
Street non‐GAAP EPS $4.85 $6.23 $7.80
NSI vs. Street ‐3.1% 1.9% 3.8%
Saw this from "polo_grill" a long term accurate poster on IV with ties to institutions - he says institutions say approvals this week worth $10-$20 on price per share...Added
EU Approval - Major Event not just a normal milestone. PPS will move much higher.
As the market and Street absorbs this news look for a major move in PPS. Those who recall REV approval know the drill. Starts out slowly in the PM and moves much higher as the day move on as buyers and shorts do what they do best. Buy more, and buy to cover.
I particularly like the low key nature of the announcement for a long awaited event. Just spoke to a tute who has follow the EU approval saga for over 5 years. Worth 10-20 points PPS in their opinion. looking forward to a great day. We have some short interest trapped. Most tutes can NOT touch the PM by their own trading rules. Summit should buy and add to what will be an increasing PPS. Other drugs also doing well, team working hard, and metrics make this a cheap price in the 120's.
Good luck longs.
"really needs to close above 124." --utter nonsense. CELG was in the $80s in september. what on earth do you want?? straight to $1000 by 2016??
Welcome - best thing you can do is EVERY DAY go to the CELG Investorvillage message board for analyst reports and people who have followed it for 15 yrs. VERY intelligent posting over there