Agreed to a point. CEMP has a tremendous upside, but I do worry. A new antibiotics has a huge upside. I'm very long both.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think so, at current prices, if I could buy just one for the long haul. Do you all agree? CELG looks to have the most upside with the least amount of risk.
OT: any thoughts on AbbVie here?
I am not so sure flip that 2016 will be a break out year. The strong dollar will pressure earnings, The higher interest of the RCPT debt will lower net income, and Abraxane is certainly facing stiff competition. Revlimid, Pomalyst and Otezla will power growth until Ozanimod and GED-301 hit the market in 2018 and 2019. That is where you will see the exponential growth ramp up.
There are. Some of the Big old pharma companies and even GILD have big cash balances on their books. They could do a cash/stock offer. I think that could be the worst that could happen to CELG.
Hey bio... Is there anyone out there that may take over CELG now that it has pulled back a good amount? Just wondering your thoughts on that.. tia
Are you asking on a fundamental aspect or just the technical for a trade. Personally, I don't think TWTR is a viable stand alone company. To make money they need adds. Their customer base doesn't want adds. If they move to that direction then you have people leaving for other apps.
Any thoughts on this? I imagine it won't be for a while, with the company still in a strong growth mode. But how long can that continue? How will CELG's prospects look in, say, 2025? Guess there's no real way to judge... Further acquisitions could change the equation, too...
Hey divi, great call on CELG. I got in a few days ago and my spreads are making a nice profit. O/T question. Have you done any research on Twitter? Motley Fool has it listed a "buy it now" stock and I've also read several articles about it being a potential breakout stock for 2016. I know its in a downtrend but the current price appears low based on the chart, historical prices, and IPO price. Any thoughts? Thanks!
The key to picking spec biotechs isn't the drugs. Far too many people try to pick them based on what they think 1 drug might do commercially. That's the wrong way to do it. You have to pick them based on the technology platform. A lot of companies can invent 1 good drug, but you want a company that can continue to invent many good drugs. That goes deep into the science and is beyond what many investors are will to do or are unable to understand. One of my favorites here is AGIO (CELG's partner). It has 5 drugs in trial and no one of them looks to be block buster. If you look at the science behind it though, its a different picture. AGIOS is studying cellular metabolism which is fairly new area of biotech. There are over 600 orphan and rare diseases that stem from a metabolic mutation. Once you look at one of their drugs take AG-348 for PK. The way this drug works allows you to connect the dots to Beta Thalassemia to Sickle Cell Anemia and so on.
Thanks. I got sucked in early this year at a painful price of $100 and bought again at $23. I'm holding to see what happens. I'm also in INCY (at a much better position), GILD and BIIB. I need BIIB to get out of the funk its' in. To think I unloaded REGN, took early profit and bought more BIIB thinking it was moving up. That hurt.
I think ESPR is a very interesting speculative biotech. I know many think there is no room in the LDL market for this company. If you look at the clinical data ETC-1002 had up to 40% LDL lowering while Praluent from REGN had 70% LDL lowering. The difference is AMGN's and REGN's drugs are injectable where ETC-1002 is a pill. There is plenty of space for them to carve out a market for this drug. It uses a different mechanism of action over PSK9 inhibitors. It moves through the lower intestine into the liver and reacts on a cellular metabolism level affecting ATP to alter how the cell breaks down food into fuel. If you look at the LDL market, there are a lot of patients who are statin intolerant or just can't reach goal on statins. They aren't excessive enough either to want to stab themselves daily with a shot either. I think ESPR could certainly cut out a "in the middle" market share for itself. When I find good specs like ESPR I typically put in a small investment and just let it go so long as the company and science continue to live up to expectations. I usually put in 2.5% of my portfolio and just leave it. If it goes up 30%, I don't sell, and if it goes down 30%, I don't buy more either. When you speculate like that, your downside is limited, but the upside can be like a lottery ticket if the company turns out to be the next CELG and grows 5000% in 10 or 15 years.
Half this market anymore is just computers trading off chart patterns. Fundamental is a lost art. That is my I love fundamentals so much. Sometimes the technical guys give you insanely cheap prices because they forget there is a real company behind those pretty pictures.