Sounds like all your eggsare in one basket, I sure hope you have a stop loss set with this. If CELG breaks the "Hope Line" the 200 day, this stock is a sell.
Do you now understand that CELG is better than IBB? For three years and $100000.00, IBB returns:
100000 * 192% = 192000
But for CELG, you get a better return:
100000 * 242% = 242000
I think you worry too much about the IBB lol. Its is unfortunate that there is no real good measure for a biotech ETF. The IBB has tons of stuff that isn't biotech and the XBI is heavily weighted to the very speculative biotechs. I have been in CELG for years and my return is very delightful at over 250%. I am quite happy with my CELG investment. Up until you made such a huge fuss about the IBB, I had never looked at it. Imagine that. I made over 250% and not once cared what the IBB did. I am a stock picker not and ETF picker. CELG has been a fantastic investment over the past 3 years because I followed the earnings and story and not an ETF. I will continue to be in CELG as long as the story and earnings stay good. I guess that is why so many investors miss the big returns. They get easily distracted. For the past 2 years, CELG has always traded at a big discount to its peers because of the Revlimid patent case. I think this is just silly. Its 2 years of patent for the EU that wont even matter for another 7 years. Once this case is cleared up, even if it is negative, the overhang will be removed from CELG and the stock can finally be priced where it should be. For me, It doesn't matter much if I am paying 120, 110 or 100 for CELG when I am confident it will be worth $300 by 2020. My friend is the same way, he is always talking about the IBB. He tries to trade the technicals and jumps in and out of the stock on every article he reads. He has vastly underperformed my CELG position over the same time period.
By the way, if you don't like the composition of IBB, SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) show the exact same pattern when matched against CELG over those time periods. In fact, in many cases it's worse. Run those comparisons also.
shame on you without basic math knowledge!
Looks like you have no basic math knowledge. If you invest in IBB, this is a real data in three year (from 01/02/2012-01/02/2015) percentage change (313-107)/107 ~ 192%. If you do the same period of investment in CELG, this is the change (113-33)/33 ~ 242%. That is, you get a much better return in investment in CELG than in IBB. I urge you to learn basic math. Otherwise, you will be a loser
Nope -- never short, and don't much trade either. Just three this year.
I'm tied to the mast on this baby. But the fact that I'm VERY long in it (and will continue to be so) made this particular observation uncomfortable.
Thanks for your thoughts on this...
Also, that very short term influence by one stock does nothing to explain all of the other time periods I cited (5 day, 1 month, 3 month, 6 month, 2 year, 5 year, etc.)
Start with an investment of $100,000 for either IBB or CELG at any point in time you choose. Over any time between then and now you would have ended up better off had you invested that $100,000 in IBB than you would had you invested it in CELG.
Again, I'm talking RELATIVE performance vis-a-vis the sector as a whole, regardless of any specific time frame. It evidently continues to underperform that composite index regardless of where you choose to start. The specific numbers (though I've cited them) are less important than that very simple fact. That shouldn't be the case if we're "best in breed".
FWIW, I'm VERY long CELG. But that fact doesn't please me.
A forward p/e of 18 and a peg under 1. A year, two and three out, buyers will be generously rewarded. These shares are held in a large part by ETF's and that has punished punish the spectrum, taking CELG with it. If this is your best idea for a short, you're clearly out of ideas. This is a lifetime position.
Just saw your other. If IBB isn't valid because there's "too much non biotech junk in it", how can I buy into that adulterated measure? :-)
See above. It's RELATIVE performance with the biotech sector as a whole I'm questioning (for any time period of your choice) -- not absolute performance. If IBB goes up 250% (to pick a figure out of the air) and CELG goes up 200%, swell. But it's underperformed its sector as a whole, no?
The only thing you can validly question is whether or not iShares NASDAQ biotech is a properly constructed composite measure of the sector as a whole.
Don't you think that your comparison is stupid? The base is different. How can you compare without base? You need the percentage increase. Let's me give an example:
In the past 12 months,
CELG change from 72 to 113, its percentage increase (113-72)/72 ~ 57%
IBB change from 235 - 356, its percentage increase (356 - 235)/235 ~ 51%
So CELG is better than IBB.
It isn't CELG. It is the IBB that is broken.Iif you look at its top 10 holdings, they were all down about the same toady except MYL which was up big on take over rumors.
1. BIIB - 2.15%
2. AMGN - 1.97%
3. CELG - 2.48%
4. GILD - 1.90%
5. REGN - 2.16%
6 VRTX - 3.0%
7. ALXN - 1.60%
8. ILMN - .96%
9. MYL + 4.46% If it wasn't for this stock on take over speculation the whole IBB would have been down big
10. BMRN - .61%
CELG isn't broken your index is. MYL is a generic drug company. That shouldn't even be in the biotech ETF. ILMN is a diagnostics company and it shouldn't be in a biotech ETF either. IBB isn't a good reference for Biotech because there is too much non biotech junk in it.
CELG has been my worst play this year… I almost threw in the towel until I came across Ultimate Stock Alerts (you can find them in Google)
Why do you guys refuse to look at the damn charts??? CELG continues to underperform the sector as a whole, and has for ages.
It's not hard to do. Click on today's chart, then click on Comparison and enter IBB (iShares NASDAQ Biotech). At least in comparative terms, it's ABSOLUTELY to do with the company.
Here is reality, if you care to consult it:
Today: IBB -1.40, CELG -2.48
5 day: IBB -1.01, CELG -3.62
1 month: IBB -0.47, CELG -7.51
3 month: IBB +10.48 CELG -7.94 (Good Lord!)
6 month: IBB +32.22 CELG +23.34
1 year: even
2 year: IBB: +106.55 CELG +85.47
5 year: IBB + 292.62 CELG +279.43
Telling me it's one of the very best companies in the sector might be true long term, but so what? The future is now.
Another important point is that insider is buying at around $118-119, indicating that management people are confident with the company