I think your overly optimistic with $150 this year. 2015 will have a head wind for CELG of about 100 mil in currency. I think $130 to $140 is very respectable expectation.
I'm more than awake, I realize that Germany is outperforming. If they had their own currency it would appreciate, the difference in exports would adjust on its own and the rest of Europe that isn't as competitive would find its own level. Instead you have Greece trying to compete with Germany and unable to devalue their currency to restore balance. It's obvious that having a common currency without having a common fiscal, banking and tax structure is NOT working. The Brits were smart, not so the rest of Europe.
Wake up. Germany dominates Europe. Their superiority is the problem. It is like grading on the curve and the rest of Europe wants to loaf along and Germany has their foot on the gas.
its trading at a forward pe of 25 right now and a trailing pe of 63 ....if its growing at 25 to 30 percent clip it could easily trade anywhere from 25 to 60 pe....however i understand you being conservative there is nothing wrong with that.
The Germans helped out as well, they've been sucking the life out of Europe since the common currency, with yet another NEIN to Euro QE.
Germany gets the benefit of a cheaper currency to support their exports while leaving the rest of Europe in a monetary straight jacket due to their irrational fear of Weimar Republic style hyperinflation returning. The rest of Europe ought to kick Germany out of the common currency, the new deutschmark would immediately go to $2.00, the Euro would go to a $1.00, German exports would collapse. And once Germany felt the pain on unemployment the rest of Europe has been suffering then the fat Bundesbankers would get the message on monetary stimulus.
The trees are falling oil and the strong dollar. The forest is that CELG will increase its revenues 2.5X what they were in 2014 by 2020. Earnings will growth from $3.71 in 2014 to $12.50 by 2020. That is 236% EPS growth in 5 years. An average of 47% EPS growth a year for the next 5 years. Yes, pullbacks are possible, but they are buying opportunities.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
2014 earnings were done yesterday at the Conference. They didn't break it all out but 2014 EPS came in at 3.71 above consensus. Earnings that come for Q4 will just be a formality. Anyone who listened yesterday got to hear them early.
Like I said, we'll probably reach a double top and stall. Having said that earnings announcement is imminent and I think this will be the push to give us a sustainable breakout. Keeping fingers crossed!
The the oil thing. Every day the market tries and every day oil drops and every day it takes the rest of the market with it, even unrelated stocks.
Don't worry the shorts will down vote you now. ;)
Otezla has had faster uptake than it's competitor (that's in several charts over on $MDVN on twitter) comparing it's growth to whatever the competition is. I think it's an image so it might be a search, you can always check the investor village board, they likely have that info as well.
And that's a reasonable number. But like someone else said, CELG usually under promises, so that might be considered the minimum by 2020.