Got a chance to read this Bernstein report on the Revlimid patent case in detail over the weekend and while I am not at liberty to post the report - I would like to give you my thoughts on what I read.
I have been reading CELG analyst reports for over 15 yrs, and quite simply I consider this one perhaps one of the most important every written as far as laying out a case for why the settlement of this case "with modest concessions" since Celgene clearly has the upper hand makes this the time to buy more Celgene - with Bernstein continuing to "Recommend Celgene's stock STRONGLY at these levels"
As was reported by the flyonthewall - the report was titled " Celgene: Natco's Case Getting Weaker; We See Settlement in Q1'15 Barring Revlimid Generic Entry Until 2025/26.
Bernstein's Geoff Porges - who I view as one of the best biotech analysts that currently covers Celgene - has always had a very positive view of Celgene winning this battle - but they have had expert counsel retained on this issue since they first covered Celgene and that counsels opinion as well as Porges' - which was very very much in the Celgene camp - clearly has strengthened significantly over recent months given the Markman hearing results and Celgene legal maneuvering before, during and after.
The report goes into some detail on how Natco's original strategy focused on circumventing the '800 patent and invalidating the other less
important patents, particularly method of use and distribution patents. The problem Natco has is that "The Markman ruling in May was a significant setback to Natco's non-infringement arguments against the '800 patent". Porges argues that the judges interpretation of the term "hemihydrate" - which is considerably broader than Natco's proposed interpretation- had dealt Natco a "significant blow" re: their arguments for non-infringement. Bernstein feels Natco may have been caught flat-footed without other arguments against the patent.
Now it appears Natco is playi
i recommend this to everyone....this is so cool', just get half of my profits' and its getting better and better, Thank You!
Personally, I think this is a 3X bagger, so I am not a fan of getting a 50% premium now, when I know if I just wait 2-3 years I'll get a heck of a lot more.
4 OUTRAGEOUSLY BOGUS STATEMENTS BY NVLX CONMAN KENNETH L. WAGGONER ON 7/14/14 PR:
1. If Nuvilex has completed the necessary preliminary steps to commence a Phase 2b clinical trial of its pancreatic cancer treatment that it expects to begin in Q1 2015, then why hasn't the FDA Centers for
Biological Evaluation & Research at 800-835-4709 ever heard of NVLX or its subsidiary Austrianova?
2. If NVLX was virtually debt free, then explain an accumulated deficit of (52,229,316) according to the last NVLX 10-Q dated 03/17/14???
3. If Nuvilex has secured a traditional investment banking relationship with Chardan Capital Markets, then why no funding from Chardan itself? It's just an agreement for Chardan to peddle NVLX stock for a fee according to the 05/29/14 8-K!!!
4. If Nuvilex has established credibility with accredited and institutional investors, why not mention any names? No proof of this whatsoever!!!
PR ON 7/17/14 A REHASH OF OLF AUSTRIANOVA TRIAL DATA FROM 2002:
"J Mol Med (Berl). 2002 Sep;80(9):610-4. Epub 2002 Jun 28.
A clinical protocol for treatment of canine mammary tumors using encapsulated, cytochrome P450 synthesizing cells activating cyclophosphamide: a phase I/II study.
Winiarczyk S1, Gradski Z, Kosztolich B, Gabler C, König G, Renner M, Saller RM, Prosl H, Salmons B, Günzburg WH, Hain J.
1Department of Epizootiology and Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Agriculture University, Gleboka Street 30, 20612 Lublin, Poland."
OMG...SELL EVERYTHING YOU OWN TO SHORT THE NVLX CRIMINAL ENTERPRISE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Finally someone gets it..I've been trying to tell this board about the impact of this new drug and no one gets it......it's a huge game changer and this board has no clue..thanks for this great post
DB-Weekly IMS scripts indicate Otezla sales of ~$13M for 3Q using the calculated capture rate (113%). This represents ~180% growth from TOTAL 2Q’14 number ($4.6M) - Reiterate $115 target
Deutsche Bank - Equity Research - North America
Celgene Alert - IMS suggests 3Q Otezla sales at ~$13M
01 August 2014 (1 page/ 121 kb)
Celgene Closing Price: 87.15 USD
Target Price: 115.00 USD, Recommendation: Buy
Weekly IMS scripts indicate Otezla sales of ~$13M for 3Q using the calculated capture rate (113%). This represents ~180% growth from 2Q’14 number ($4.6M). Total Scripts were down 9% w/w (736 vs. 812) while the new scripts were also down 17% w/w (497 vs. 605). Scripts for July are trending to end-up closer to ~3700 which is slightly below the number of scripts written in the entire 2Q (~3968). Celgene mentioned on their 2Q14 call that July monthly sales would meet or beat the entire 2Q (~$5M). Please ask for our Otezla calculator.
We use script based calculations and note that IMS indicated 2Q sales at ~$5.2M vs. $4.6M actual. This gives a capture rate of 113% for 2Q.
Using this capture rate and Gross to net of 30%, we arrive at $13M sales for 2Q. We model ~4% weekly script growth every week for the rest of the Q. At 100% capture rate we see 3Q’14 sales at $15M.
We model higher gross to net in this market as such discounts are normal in these channels. Our survey indicated a 25-30% discount for Anti-TNFs vs. their WAC price.
This is fantastic: this sort of analysis is exactly what I’ve been looking at doing myself. Thank you and great work.
the stock is back above 85 I was hope for more like 83. I will be patient.
Underground Stock Alerts* (google em) just came out with a detailed report on CELG today - I recommend any fellow shareholders here sign up immediately and wait for the next update, last time they alerted a stock as a buy it went up 1350%, and last two times they put out sell ratings the stocks dove over 75% - don't be the last to know and get screwed, I learned my lesson on their AAPL sell alert, and GOOG buy alert sub $300