CELG looking strong going into ASH. I'm just hoping to base near 170 before January guidance. Hope we get there. Rob quick question. I'm looking at scaling into a position n Epizyme but trying to wait till options are available. Have you heard when these will be trading? The IPO was back n June I believe.
I've been in CELG on both sides and I'm out of my most recent long now. Though I think CELG has peaked, I probably won't short it this week. There are price hurdles, especially internationally. Though there could be a little more upside, there's more uncertainties about competition and price pressures that aren't been discussed enough yet.
Futures mean nothing anymore. Could be up 80 and then it opens flat and the day ends 1-2% down on DOW and NASDAQ, happens a lot.
No dividends near term - definitely not in 2014...once Pomalyst, Abraxane and Apremilast are nicely into their launches and Revlimid front line approval comes I suspect 2015 is a possibility..
As much as I would love a dividend - and I would - if William Blair is even close at $17 EPS in 2017 - we are trading at a 0.3 PEG on LT numbers - a 70% discount to our earnings growth....with that for the long term massive buybacks and spending on the best pipeline in all of biotech will earn LT shareholders infinitely better returns than a near term dividend. Sure dividend would bring a new class of investors, allow funds who can't buy now to be new CELG investors and reward long term investors who were loyal during the 5 dead yrs, the SAC attacks and The Big Lie and The Big Lie 2, but at the ridiculously undervalued price per share CELG is trading at now - buyback is a must. (Remember half the cash is overseas - hopefully Cramer is right and there will be a discounted tax holiday to repatriate in the coming months).
Now the good news is CELG is well on its way near term to having FIVE SEPARATE billion $ a yr drugs (not counting oral aza which I suspect will get breakthrough designation and MD Anderson thinks will change medicine and be another $1 billion++ drug) and $5 billion a yr positive cash flow after ALL expenses - so there will be plenty of cash to do all of the above. Patience though with a dividend - at least 18 months to 2 yrs away.
Futures up 68 right now - market likes Iran deal....Thanksgiving week is usually up historically...
...as I said 2000 dow points ago with some calling for 10%-20% market correction and mentioning CELG gap fills to 130 (as I posted vehemently at the time RIDICULOUS) --- the market is as I expected melting up into yr end and now with all companies and home owners refinanced at historically low rates ---reducing millions in interest costs for corporations and taking $300-$600 off most homeowners monthly mortgage rates, with oil and gas prices coming down, with corporations having more cash on their balance sheets - trillions - than anytime in history - well as I thought we have not seen that pullback the fear mongers have talked about.
And now with CHMP joining the FDA in a more cooperative regulatory environment (except French Rapporteurs :+) ) and the Big Four Cramer highlighted on Friday - BIIB - CELG - GILD - REGN --- all with great news, data, earnings, launches...and undervalued on earnings growth...
- well biotech will be the leader of the meltup....
ndex Future Future Date Last Net Change Open High Low Time
Dow Jones Indus. Avg Dec 13 16,095.00 +68.00 16,076.00 16,098.00 16,076.00 20:02:11
S&P 500 Dec 13 1,808.70 +7.50 1,802.30 1,808.90 1,801.10 20:02:11
NASDAQ 100 Dec 13 3,434.25 +14.25 3,425.00 3,435.00 3,425.00 19:57:29
Won't post here see CELG Investor Village message board for actual chart.
At All time highs the traditional 1.0 Dorsey Wright P&F chart is the best technical predictor - it is usually not time sensitive but the DATA IS COMING IN TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY and then the LONG TERM GUIDANCE RAISE IS COMING 8 am (San Fran time) Jan 13th
glad I sold today then. cramer is a curse. He loved LL a few weeks ago too.
Hey rob_cos you have been right on with your analysis of CELG. I also follow you and others on Investor Village. Keep up the great work and GO CELG!!!
Cramer says the "Four Horseman of Pharma" incl Celgene are back ready to go higher..Celgene -$15 EPS in 2015…yet when you look at the out yrs – CELG is even cheaper than PFE, LLY & BMY...Buy even now...will be anointed as go to names for rest of 2013...
AMAZING MAD MONEY SEGMENT - tape it and watch 15 minutes after the start of the show
Cramer: "Celgene just got a European panel approval for the use of a drug called Abraxane in fighting Pancreatic Cancer….there had been plenty of skeptics about Abraxane but now those skeptics have been proven wrong…that along with some negative chatter about Amgen’s Kyprolis including some rumblings about toxicity problems have put some pep into Celgene’s step which had been stalled in the 150s for quite a bit….now Celgene’s breaking out to all time highs… …this stock remains cheaper than all the biotechs I follow – why because Celgene I believe can earn $15 (a share) in 2015…yet when you look at the out yrs – this company is even cheaper then Pfizer, Lilly…and are you ready skeedaddy………Bristol Myyyyyeeeeeersss" (Cramer famous “Myers”)….
Cramer closing segment "The four horseman of the Big Pharma apocalypse have been wandering in the wilderness of late - that stay seeems to be over - I would buy all four of these - BIIB, CELG, GILD and REGN - even after these runs - as these stocks are going to be anointed as go to names for THE REST OF 2013"
They have this video link up but its not playing yet - hopefully it works later tonight...
The four horseman of pharma
Friday, 22 Nov 2013 | 6:15 PM ET
Mad Money host Jim Cramer shares why it's not too late to add biotech names Gilead, Celgene, Biogen Idec and Regerneron to your positions.
CELG has it all going. IF and when they come up with a med. for pancreatic cancer (the most deadly of all) this stock will blast off like a rocket.
To their credit, they are going slow with this breakthrough to make sure they get it right. The FDA has little mercy and if they jump the gun and dont dot all the i's it will get refused and then they have to start all over, which usually causes a big setback.
Im anxiousely crossing my fingers for this Very Important Pancratic Cancer drug. So many lives will be saved.
Only the beginning...channel shows a straight shot to 170s - greatest ASH in CELG history in 2 weeks....then long term guidance raise Jan 13th at JP Morgan
Market will rally through y/e and CELG is head to $179-$180. William Blair just raise LT to $17 EPS - company is at $13-14 EPS....29 other analysts have to raise..ASH will be big for CELG. JPM copany raises that $13-$14. BUY and avg up - DO NOT SELL