Double top breakout 25 P&F chart - near term target $160 for $CELG . Best TA guy I know sees $155 early next wk. ADD...See polo_grill post on investorvillage CELG board for link to P&F chart since yahoo doesn't allow links
MM-020 Trial Set To Deliver At ASH...
Celgene is "very happy" with the detailed results of MM-020 that will be presented next month. We expect no surprises, and anticipate Arm B of the trial (fixed dose Rev/dex) will perform in between Arm A (continuous Rev/dex) and Arm C (MPT). Management also believes that OS data from MM-020 are very likely to reach statistical significance as the data mature over the next 1-2 years.
...And Support EMA Approval
EU regulators appear interested in seeing that (1) Rev improves PFS (including PFS2),(2) is not associated with imbalances in SPMs, and (3) contributes to a positive trend in survival.
As the MM-020 trial satisfies these criteria, it should pave the way for EMA approval in transplant ineligible patients. CELG is less sure whether the EMA will accept trials in post-transplant maintenance, but would sacrifice breadth of label for speed to market.
Trajectories For Pomalyst, Abraxane Remain Favorable
Celgene continues to be very pleased with Pomalyst's trajectory into the relapsed/refractory myeloma market. The company notes that it initially underestimated the patient pool, is witnessing a longer than expected duration of therapy, and is capitalizing on synergies with Revlimid. In terms of synergies, Revlimid's presence appears to be benefiting Pomylast (once patients start on orals, they want to stay on orals) and vice versa (the availability of another agent has encouraged docs to treat with Revlimid through best response and to progression). Reimbursement discussions with E.U. countries are proceeding well.
Meanwhile, management believes that Abraxane has only recently begun to make substantial gains into the U.S. pancreatic cancer market, and that 2014 will be the year for more significant penetration of this opportunity as well as an EU launch. Celgene is still anticipating OS data from Abraxane's melanoma trial this quarter, but noted that this trial was not powered for OS and this opportunity is not part of its 2017 guidance.
Cowen rpt after talk with Dr Fouse-"Guidance de-risked, "VERY HAPPY" with detailed MM-020 results- set to deliver @ ASH& support EU app, underestimated Pom patient pool/duration, Natco patent merely a distraction VERY confident"
(Easier to read full report on INvestor Village CELG message board
Cowen and Company, LLC EQUITY RESEARCH COMPANY UPDATE Biotechnology November 15, 2013
CELGENE - An Update From Management
Recommendation Rating: Outperform Price Target (in $): $178.00
Our discussion with Dr. Jackie Fouse (CFO) covered a broad range of topics including (1) financial guidance
(2) Revlimid's MM-020 data and the outlook for EMA approval,(3) expectations for apremilast,(4) capital re-deployment, and(5)ongoing drug launches. We reiterate our Outperform rating.
2017 Guidance Appears "De-Risked", Especially Within Hematology
Dr. Fouse discussed the strategy behind her financial guidance, and suggested that she is inclined to put forth longer-term estimates only following major inflections in CELG's business prospects. We interpret this to mean that CELG will not give guidance beyond 2017 at JP Morgan. She also indicated CELG would continue to update its existing long-term projections (for 2015 and 2017) as need be.
Furthermore, she noted several positive "de-risking" events that have occurred over the past year, particularly within CELG's hematology franchise. As a result, we think there is a good chance that guidance for this unit (currently $8.3-8.8B in 2017 sales) could be revised upward. Despite positive Phase III data on apremilast, we do not expect an upward revision to this franchise's guidance.
MM-020 Trial Set To Deliver At ASH...
Celgene is "very happy" with the detailed results of MM-020 that will be presented next month. We expect no surprises, and anticipate Arm B of the trial (fixed dose Rev/dex) will perform in between Arm A (continuous Rev/dex) and Arm C (MPT).
You probably should get that bearish divergence looked at by a proctologist.Or try Revlimid mixed with a heavy dose of arsenic.
Check it out guys you have the MEGA opportunity to buy this significantly underpriced stock at the bottom if you want to make money !
AEZS has already a Drug on the Market which is partnered with pharma giant Merck (MRK) , this Product brings around $70 M in annual revenue to AEZS thats almost two times higher than current Market Cap .
AEZS has another Drug awaiting FDA approval and muliple Cancer Drugs in Late Stage some of them have potential Blockbusters .
I think AEZS has the potential for a runup to minimum to $4-5 before FDA decision in Mid 2014 . GL
AEterna Zentaris (AEZS)
Market Cap: $43 M
Cash: $25 M
Shares Out: 32 M
Annual Revenue :$ 70 M
BIG PIPELINE :
Macimorelin Acetate (AEZS-130)
Diagnostic in adult growth hormonedeficiency (endocrinology) Awaiting FDA approval
Product ..Zoptarelin Doxorubicin (AEZS-108)
Endometrial cancer in Phase 3
Tripl-negative breast cancer In Phase 2
Castration-and taxane-resistant prostate cancer in Phase 2
Refractory bladder cancer in Phase 2
Ovarian cancer (completed) in Phase 2
Product ..Ozarelix :
Prostate cancer in Phase 2
Product ..Macimorelin Acetate (AEZS-130)
Therapeutic in cancer cachexia in Phase 2
Multiple cancers in Phase 2
(to finish my earlier post): Whereas Blackberry was once $150 per share, however, now it’s $6 and change! Ah well.
I’ve been meaning to write to the board for some time. I’ve very much enjoyed and benefited from the posts of Rob Cos on the board.
I first bought Celgene in 2005 and am now up just under 450% on the purchase. I bought it again earlier in 2013 and the latter purchase is up 33%.
I have occasionally wondered whether Celgene is now out of balance in my portfolio, in which it now accounts for just under 11%. But I’m not going to argue with success.
And now there is more involved than money. A close friend told us earlier in 2013 that she has pancreatic cancer. I told her to tell her specialist about Celgene’s work with Abraxane and she is now taking it.
The fact that Celgene impresses me and has done well doesn’t indicate all of my stock selections have been equally successful. I am impressed with Blackberry and it was the only tech stock I continued to hold after the tech crash in the early 2000’s. Whereas it was
Very nice call. just reading more on this now. You were ahead of the headlines.
Are you serious? Some people should not be investing their own money. CELG is an S&P Titan with billions a yr in cash flow, the best gross margins in the S&P 500, a lead drug with 96% gross margins headed to $8 to $10 billion annual sales, 4 other drugs that will be $billio/yr +, the best pipeline and CFO in the industry. Enough difference for you?
If you think Sarepta is "the only game in town" then your research in DMD is as poor as it is in CELG.
Check out SUMMit `Corporation UK Oxford spinout listed on AIM market in the UK with a novel drug that up regulates Utrophin that will function in place of dystrophin. Totally under the radar with a tiny Mkt cap..... for now
Well, SRPT dreams got postponed it seems now (because of the FDA caution) ... but the progress is on track there ... perhaps, big-boys will load-up there soon! I'll buy some calls there soon. But, CELG is a mega-cap and slowly loosing the TA-oomph (despite incessant pumps)... big difference! SRPT is the only game in town for MD.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Appears you said to buy SRPT and sell Celg:
"Yep, buying GERN and selling CELG is an excellent pairs-strategy! Another good pair is: (Buy-SRPT and Sell-CELG)."
Heavily pumped-up SRPT experiencing big sell-off today! Check it out. Do you recall a person (or a common element) who pumped-up both these equities to the current levels? Is there any?
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Rather significant mistake selling now instead of mid Jan imo. Major positive detail at ASH on MM-020, then chase for performance on winners into yr end - and then a MAJOR rise in guidance at JP Morgan early Jan. Buy
It was a good run so far; but I've decided to sell CELG now and book profits. Apparently volatility has increased and looks like chart has weakened substantially. Best days of CELG stock growth may be behind now.
see IV CELG board...
"Large biotech & pharma valuations and cash flow makes M&A increase for pipeline a virtual certainty. BIIB, GILD, and CELG all will have blockbuster launches and are really not that expensive and only place for real earnings growth in S&P 500 ...Recent pullback will be bought just like Oct 9th pullback. Per ISI CELG PEG is 0.5 in 2016 & that is with LOW Apremilast, Pomalyst and Revlimid numbers. This ASH data could add $3 billion to CELG peak sales LT with 100% ownership worldwide , 95%+ margins and 16% tax rate. Can you say earnings leverage with best CFO in healthcare knowing what to do with all that cash flow"
Well I for one am very encouraged by the outlook the company has but am pulling some money off the table and buying some very nice Christmas presents. The past 12 months has been very good to many of us that have held the stock.
What is rather incredible is that it seems that current estimates are VERY conservative not only for Revlimid (and they just got even more conservative with the great MM-020 data) but also for Pomalyst (significantly so), Abraxane and Apremilast. And certainly earnings per share not just next yr but for yrs to come.
This will be $400 by 2020
I invest in biotech stocks fulltime...been following CELG since 1998 when I recommended it at 8 3/8 (adjusted for 12-1 splits really 69 cents) on this board (the 8th post on this board ever) . .We moved mostly to Investorvillage CELG board - as its easier to post long posts and they don't tolerate bashing. I am an ex CEO of a 10 billion dollar finance company and ex CFO of a NYSE bank