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Saba Software, Inc. (SABA) Message Board

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  • It's hard to pinpoint a date because they keep changing it. But, it's clear this is not at all about restating past earnings. That work has been done. I think this is about re-launching the company and putting good distance between 'then' and 'now.' It seems the company has signaled pretty clearly that it will coincide with what would be the earnings report for late Dec (Qtr ends in Nov). So, going into 2015 as a revamped entity, I believe. PE folks are buying more shares. Maybe they're just trying to support the stock. Lots can happen and there's no real volume (e.g., demand) to hold the stock. But it's holding and so going to look for a bump, particularly given the recent merger.

  • When you say looming - do we have a date yet?

  • Have been hearing about Skillsoft (content company) acquiring SumTotal (platform company) who are both PE held firms that were taken out of the public market about 4-5 years ago. A play at 'vertical integration' and further consolidation? But the valuations ($700+ M for SumTotal, Saba competitor) suggest upside for Saba if they get their act together, at least from the PE perspective. With company "relaunch" looming, I'm looking for a bounce. Obviously, with caveats previously discussed.

  • Reply to

    Company relaunch in the making?

    by lancesway Aug 27, 2014 8:17 PM

    Appreciated - someone seems to want SABA. Still holding but now have a negative in price. If it rises to $15 may take a bit more profit.

  • Seems price is holding, even rising in anticipation of some restatement end of year. Perhaps a company overall as well as marketing have been very active. But volme is very low. Seems to me a reflection of inside trading to keep the price up in anticipation of another bounce once restatement appears. Anyway, my thinking and thought share.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Company Trading Update

    by togmundus2003 Jul 17, 2014 10:45 AM

    Agreed. No new news. Same 'ol, same 'ol. Cloud billings, for the most part, probably represent Centra/virtual environment renewals and billings, but no substantial systems growth in LMS or Talent Mgmt. No bad to peel back some at $13. I'm holding for a bit higher (maybe $15) but may do some peeling as well. With CSOD coming back some, seems more pressure for share price growth though there are real differences in valuation. Volume just seems low on Saba so not much room to go unless others discover it.

  • Didn't seem to tell us much ..... stuff about cloud growth but little else to build confidence. Still the share price seems to be coming back .... tempted to bank a little at around $13.

  • Reply to

    SABA seems to be stiring

    by togmundus2003 Jun 23, 2014 4:04 PM

    Agree that the restatement process company has taken is nonsense. There just isn't that much money there anyway. It's all about holding off as long as possible to minimize the downside impact of restating; that when it comes, it will be based on 2-3 years of steady business results with restated years far in rear view mirror. The company had hard time with revenue growth back then due to cust sat and product quality problems. So, I'm sure they "took" money in on the services side of the biz, and mostly from international ops. Putting that far back distances the impact today with mgmt team. If company can show some rev growth, may even get a bounce. But, I disagree with notion that "companies won't buy from this company due to its financial status". This market (talent mgmt/LMS) is not that sophisticated and there's a lot of process integration that needs to occur in talent management operations. So there 's a need for these integrated suites.

  • Reply to

    SABA seems to be stiring

    by togmundus2003 Jun 23, 2014 4:04 PM

    yep we are both mistfied! Great business for accountants - allegedly it is costing $15m to sort out - how can that possibly be in the sahreholders interest - unless of cousre there is a hidden agenda for the big boys

  • Reply to

    SABA seems to be stiring

    by togmundus2003 Jun 23, 2014 4:04 PM

    I double checked and it's actually been five years now. They announced in August 2012 that they were going to have to restate the results for the first and second quarters of the 2012 fiscal year, which began on June 1, 2011. They also announced that they were going to have to restate the results for fiscal years 2010 and 2011, and were "assessing" whether they would have to restate for FY 2008 and 2009 as well (see http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20120806006224/en/Saba-Update-Status-Ongoing-Accounting-Review#.U7HJFfl91XE) . I am not aware of any financial statements released since then. So far as I know, they haven't even ruled out a 2008/09 restatement.

    I quite share your puzzlement. Not having five years of financials based on a $271,000 revenue recognition error more than three years ago makes no sense, it's got to be much bigger than that. And yet the company still seems to be doing decent business as best as I can tell. I've never heard of the SEC letting a public company lag so far in releasing financials before, so there doesn't seem to be anything to go on so far as guessing what it means.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    SABA seems to be stiring

    by togmundus2003 Jun 23, 2014 4:04 PM

    and yet they seem to have been doing OK - is iit really 3 years - cant believe it for a minor error on the recognising of services revenue!

  • Reply to

    SABA seems to be stiring

    by togmundus2003 Jun 23, 2014 4:04 PM

    Well, in order to have revenue growth they need to have either new customers or existing customers ramping up their use of the product in a big way. If you were looking in the market for an enterprise software package, one that performs a function quite similar to a number of competing products, would you commit to a long-term relationship with a company that hasn't released credible financial statements for three years? I don't believe that I would.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    SABA seems to be stiring

    by togmundus2003 Jun 23, 2014 4:04 PM

    Yes, it's been sleepy and holding around 10 until this week. Seems there's some internal buying going on. A couple PE frims own about 10% stock (each), so perhaps some are buying it back and forth. I don't see any great anticipation or widespread demand. And, there is enough business there to protect the downside (other, lesser companies are valued higher than Saba). To me, it's a category play more than a timing play. It may bounce to 12-13 again, or back to 9-10. But, the company needs to show revenue grow to get bumped any higher. If it can, then that's where demand for the stock will increase. IMHO.

  • Any thoughts as to why - surely it is not in antcipation of another update!

  • Reply to

    Saba fatigue

    by brian27272002 May 7, 2014 3:02 PM

    Fatigue is a good word for this company... Just seems to lose momentum whenever it starts to gain it. However, still holding as the category overall is very important and qtr-to-qtr results of any company is not that big of deal, unless it's already overinflated like a couple (e.g., CSOD). Notice how it holds at 10 - 11 even when it's being relatively ignored. Company has good breadth of solid products. It's the mgmt/leadership team that gets tired.

SABA
14.08+0.36(+2.62%)Sep 19 3:54 PMEDT

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