You are not getting a discount your losing 10% of the value of it if you are an EMC shareholder.. You are looking at this backwards. VMW tracking stock would have to be valued at 81.98 per share for this deal to be worth the 33.15 that everybody says it is. anything short of that and the deal is worth much less.
Say you own 100 shares of EMC- you will get 24.05 per share ($2405 total ) leaving $9.10 per share for the Tracking stock value to meet the $33.15. Total value at 33.15 should be 100 X 33.15= $3,315 minus the $2405= $910
On the 100 Share owned you are supposed to get .111 share of the tracking stock for each EMC share.= So you get 11.1 shares (ignore the rounding for now as you will not get partiall shares). So for that 11.1. shares to get to the valuation of $33.15 those 11.1 need to worth $910. So that means each tracking stock share needs to be worth $81.98 for this deal to be valued at $33.15.
So historically Trackig stocks trade at a 10% discount to the real stock. So VMWare is the moment 68.95 at the moment I post this. so using my scenario even at 68.95 a share the value of the deal is now $24.05 for the cash and 11.1 shares x 68.95 = $765.345
So $2405 plus 765.345 = $3170.3/100 original shares= Current value of deal is $31.70 based on actual VMW share price, then if you take the 10% discount the tracking stock is actually worth, the value is $68.95 minus 10%= $62.055
62.055 x 11.1= $688.81 + 2405 = $3093.81/100 original shares puts the
CURRENT VALUE OF THE DEAL AT APPROXIMATELY $30.94. Every time that VMW stock goes down so does the value of the deal.
The CEO's are a total joke. They told employees here that things will remain the same and that their jobs were safe. What they left out was that the promise is only good for 3 months after the papers are signed. You don't keep duplicating efforts if you want to be profitable. Most of us have been through several acquisitions, merges and other hocus pocus. You can trust these guys as much as you would trust Hillary's word. All service, sales and legal services will eventually be consolidated. Engineering will remain relatively the same. It won't happen immediately but anyone out there believes them, you are a special person, never give up that innocence.
Actually it's 2.5B + 2.5B but yeah I agree... EMC had referred to a 'discounted' break fee during the go-shop period, but even that one is huge.
@EMC said on Tuesday it will pay $2.5 billion if it opts for a superior offer after the go-shop period. EMC will pay an additional $2.5 billion if it enters into a deal with another company within 12 months of terminating the deal with Dell.
Well lets see- maybe its the 4 Billion dollar fee that EMC would have to pay Dell for the break up of the deal. Who in their right mind would put a valuation on top of the current deal with that much cash walking out the door to Dell if they don't get it.
Except to get to the 33.15 value that everyone says the deal is at the VMware tracking stock needs to be at 81.98- so that is unrealistic to start. the value is already down to 32.07 based on the current price of VMW. With Vmware continuing to go down this get closer to a $30 dollar deal (or less) and that is without taking into account 10% discount that tracking stocks historically trade tothe real stock. Making this deal much less palatable.
track record for tracking stocks isn't good... they're saddled with debt and royalty payments to the parent company, and after a few years, when the stock price has collapsed, they're brought back in to the parent. I predict there will be no VMW gains aside from a dead-cat bounce over the next few days.
This has got to be the absolute dumbest deal ever. Dell will NEVER be able to service the debt. Why EMC would agree to this is beyond my comprehension. They didn't even shop it. Wow.
i want to thank dell for saving my emc bacon......also, the tracking stock get no votes or dividends from vmw. it's dell, which will be responsible. dell/hp/china will help heal the pain, wag. good luck to dell and vmware. vworkstation? works great.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It's happened with other tracking stocks. Throw debt onto the tracking company. Require them to buy services or pay royalties for IP to the parent company. After a few years, fold them back in at a fraction of the spinout price.
at one time, was a renowned swing trader.
then i got fixated on weekly options and turned spastic.
rode aapl during the biggest earnings explosion in stock market history.
see baba? gave a buy n hold call on baba two weeks ago at 58 area,
baba oct calls up 1,000% since then.
gave a buy call on googl last earnings and said googl was getting ready to wake up from its slumber.
googl promptly went on a 150pt earnings melt up with calls tossing out an astounding 33,000% gain.
gave a buy call on nflx last summer at pullback lows, nflx promptly shot up 175pts over next week or so.
late last summer, repeatedly stated 212 was the "zone of death" on spy.
spy promptly cratered to 183 on worst 3rd qtr in five years.
gave a short call on post fed spike back to 210,
spy promptly cratered over next week on worst week in seven years.
anyhoo, bought some vmw. 10k shares.
see what happens.
feels like an arb play rub down.
Turning it into the dumpster of this (debt=laden) number-juggling swindle? Execs mint pure goold, VMW shareholders get the shaft. Dell already buffaloed his own shareholders last time around wit the PC company. Lord knows what he's gonna do to poor VMW bagholders.