For those of you who understand technical charts few insights:
1. vmw has been forming bullish flag pattern since 1/16. short term target for this FLAG is 105.8. I assume that vmw will get there on Wednesday or by end of this week. check similar patterns since 11/25
2. stock market will most likely bounce this week before or on Wednesday, since it's oversold and the dow reached the long term trendline since 2000 from the top. with the fed on wed I expect stock to be up this week 3. this is perfect setup for vmw to raise. It will probably will even if the market is down and much more when the market bounce
4. if the market will continue down on mon/tue it may have a false break to the down trendline, but will bounce back (similar to what is had on 12/3
5. Anyway - we are buying much more if it goes down on Monday and tue and plan on selling first 50% at 105 or above.
6. Next week will be great for all shorts try to cover...
For those holding profits in VMW long at this juncture, its strongly advised to book them ASAP.
If you only care to focus on the ST chart, you'll notice that a triple black/black Harami has formed that has huge bearish implications, especially after the recent parabolic advance. And, a much more insidious dark cloud cover is shadowing out over a multi-year VMW chart, with a break-down point indicated at 100... and sure enough, it has now started playing out verbatim here. If you get time, take a gander at CNBC video 3000239141 ... Bill Fleckenstein's recent comments are right on the mark.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Few things Bill and you don't take into consideration:
1. VMW typically DOESN'T behave like typical stock (including bullish/bearish chart patterns). Many times it goes down when the market is up and vise versa
2. VMW on 1/14/2014 broke to the upside on large volume the multi year trendline it was above since 7/1/2010) and broke down on 1/29/2013 due to miss of earnings, etc. It is testing it now (meetings point is 93.58, which it may hit it on Monday if the market is gapped down).
3. right now, vmw will beat expectations (already had preliminary announcements and analysts and the market love the latest acquisitions which will grow their market share and provide competitive differentiators
I guess we will know on wed morning...it will hit at least 102.91 next resistance.
redhoktrader: Do what you please .... but I would not bet against that stock chart signal for the ST.
Fundamentally, do not invest in a tech #$%$ yesterday's laurels ... look at the competition strengthening up against the core-business recently, while the UNIX/LINUX admins are getting flustered at the complexity in the vmwware's product (vCloudDirector etc.) management IMHO. In a nutshell, the leaks in the moat are apparent and the valuation and cap has also peaked. There is no value left for any clear upside, otherwise some insider (a human and not a corp-entity) would have tried to dip the toes in some OM purchases ...nil ... check it out. Only thing happening was the boat was being loaded by some late arriving pigs, taking advantage of the QE euphoria and next, will be the flushing time! As the recent pps action showed, some savvy holders already started looking for the lifeboats. You'll see.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I am sure many didn't like the fact it reached above 100...but now, there is a chance for them to do the right thing and buy as it is testing the trendline it passed I was talking about, same as it tested the one which connects the picks of 9/14/2012 and 1/25/2013, in 1/6/2014.
at least 105 this week. 115 probably in the next few weeks as following the fed guidelines this week and the fact the market is oversold in past few days, it will go up either this or next week
reputable analysts consider their space to be one of the fastest growing this year. vmw is already a leader there. so while the market is going down it will go up next week and then when the market is going up it will go up more. same as it did between 4/27/2010 and 6/18/2010 when s&p and nasdaq went down then it went up more!
folks, it was nice while the run lasted here, but now I'm planning to sell VMW tomorrow... I'm also a firm believer in Sean Hyman's Biblical invs. wisdom here, that states that there is a season for everything. I can't get the greed get the best of me. Last week's action is very concerning and I do not want to also bet against big gorillas like MSFT, AMZN and ORCL, that are squeezing out VMW in every dimension for the past several quarters. After all, the street has more to gain by supporting them, than supporting this outfit. All the best.
sell tomorrow and on wed you will discover you sold at least 9.5% lower than you could have...apparently you have a limited understanding of the space and the players. AMZN and ORCL are not et competing with VMW. And MSFT is not squeezing them in any front. EMC is backing them up, they made very successful 2 acquisitions which will extend their leadership and scale their revenues. Last, short interest trend is down, and institutional buying is still up after the stock hit 96. On Mon/Tue VMW will complete the correction it needed before passing 100 again and not looking back...
"I'm planning to sell VMW tomorrow..."
Next time you should just copy and paste this line when it reaches 130.
good minds think the same...top volume call/puts targeting the 105 strike price in February. prediction is 30%-60% growth this year. vmw will beat the S&P this year.
The increasing strength of the signal here is confirming that VMW paper is about to experience "tumbling down from the cliff-hanging levels" kinda event shortly!
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Nonsense. Obviously you don't know what you are talking about. VMW's server virtualization business is never really challenged, despite of what people like you had said over the last 3 years. You people have been wrong for so long. The company is still growing at about 20% rate.
Genius. No wonder the stock is still in mid 90s while the short interest is near record high.
Again, you don't know what you are talking about.