You may be right. ATRS could be selling for under $1 next
year if we fail on approvals for Epi-Pen and Sumatriptan, and
if scripts collapse for Otrexup and trials for QST go sour.
I think Antares will be successful in all of the above, and if
I have posted something like this before:
IF ALL WE HAD WAS QST. A potential blockbuster drug in a
multi billion dollar market with excellent success in mid stage
clinical trials - the stock could easily be selling at $2.50.
IF ALL WE HAD WAS OTREXUP. - and if the Jefferies
report of "conservative" sales of $200 million annually was
only 50% right - the stock could easily be selling at $2.50.
IF ALL WE HAD WAS 10% OF REVENUE FROM TEVA'S MARKET SHARE OF THE ONLY GENERIC EPI-PEN.
In a retail market now at $1.8 Billion - the stock could easily be selling at $2.50.
COMBINE REVENUE POTENTIAL. from legacy gels - Sumatriptan (50% split with TEVA on revenues and while Sumatriptan has a lot of competition it is still the #1
drug to treat migraine) - the launch of HGH in two strengths by Ferring this year - the other pen products, the life cycle extension deal - the Neurology products - the Pfizer gel deal - we could easily be selling at $2.50.
WHY then are we not selling at near $10.
Because Antares has been branded as a loser. The Gels didn't
produce. TEVA dropped Tev-Tropin. Leo dropped Otrexup.
"in house" sales of Otrexup (so far) have been below the
hopes of many. Undisclosed life cycle and neurology projects
remain undisclosed. Epi-Pen and Sumatriptan have not yet
gained approval. ATRS has not yet turned in a profit. No
surprise we are getting a "no confidence" vote at this point.
BUT - IN MY OPINION:
Epi-Pen will receive generic approval.
Sumatriptan will be approved.
Otrexup sales will advance well (company is taking right steps).
Ferring will do well with Zomacton.
QST trials will be great - probably licensed to primary care.
Undisclosed products will be disclosed and impressive.
If - WHEN - these positive events happen, then the entire
psychology of ATRS will be reversed. We will go from a
loser to a winner. We will have the revenue to support a
nicely higher share price - and the perception of ATRS as
a winner will gain us a decent Price / Earnings multiple
More funds will come onboard and analysts will raise targets.
ALL this is in the light of if we miss on a few of the above
opportunities - WE ARE SCREWED. THEN YES - WE WILL BE
SELLING BELOW $1.
I AM IN THE CAMP THAT WE WILL SUCCEED AND BE CLOSER
TO $10 THAN $1.
GIVE me all the thumbs up or down you all care to - time
will tell and the timing that will tell us if this all will work
will be the next 5 months.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Either he is clueless OR he has his hands tied. If it's the latter, then who the hell is running the company? Paul W left and now you have a cracker-jack CEO (who by the way demolished his last company) running a company with no insight of the products ATRS is trying to promote. So back to the original question. What is the task of Jack's job and is it being carried out?
He may be a lot of things but he's hardly clueless about the company. Of course he is going to carry the company banner, he works for them. But when you own 600k shares with your own $$$ his thoughts carry weight just like the shares he owns does. This isn't an IR man with a few company issued stock options. ATRS isn't the first company that the market has mispriced or broke the stock and they want be the last!
Back in late 2013, a few posters here called and talked to Jack H. (Scott M. Shadowplay, Jab9, Bazooka,..just to name a few) and what was reported in the conversation was "everything on ATRS's horizon looks great" and " 2014 will be ATRS's break out year". Keep in mind the stock price was at $4+ back then. So it looks as if Jack H is clueless and his company that HE supposedly represents is going down the drain in a hurry. The adage of moving one step up and two steps back is an exaggeration of this company. More like one step back followed up by another two steps back. Look to buy ATRS for under $1 this time next year.
GLPG was my stock pick for 2014 at $18 (trading under symbol GLPYY,,, changing to GLPG after moving to NASDAQ). Today is 57, good return of 235% so far, but there is potential binary event at least +/-30%, most probably -30%.
They had a very successful JAK1 Phase II trail in RA. ABBV has 60 days to make a decision to license the drug, after the Darwin data were published. They may do so, or may decide to stay with their own RA drug, which is not that advanced, but their AFAIK trail is moving also well.
Up to now there were no warning signs, all was moving well with GLPG. The drug works fine, almost no AE, as expected from selective JAK, so it might become an important drug in the RA market.
(Check this: "Galapagos' selective JAK1 inhibitor filgotinib meets key efficacy endpoints..") - "Up to 64% of patients achieved DAS28(CRP) remission or low disease state, all doses and regimens statistically significant at week 24". There is nothing to dislike or wary about that..::))
However now it is probably a good time to put some money on the sideline and wait for the ABBV decision, just in case that ABBV decides to pass. I hate selling winners, but I sold 40% of my position today at 58.00. Plan to buy it back if ABBV decided to pass.
I thought it is fair to warn about the potential share price drop, if someone, by any slight chance, had bought the stock following my recommendation in early 2014. If nobody is in, just ignore the post. I will delete it in one or two days anyway.
BTW, I still remember, when I posted some info in early 2014 about the potential of JAK1 in the RA market, the bright guys like numgang attacked me as a short trying to destruct the ATRS investors with other bogus stocks. Since then ATRS is 2.5 times down, GLPG is 3 times up. So, some things are moving up and some things are moving down, but one commodity is constant and you can rely on - numgang was a pinhead in early 2014 and still he is a pinhead in mid 2015.
I'd bet if this message board didn't exist you would have sold a long time ago. I've seen countless investors come to this board, hang onto the positives & ignore the warning signs. Heard mentality of going over the edge together.
Loko, I take it you listened to and read the teva cc transcript. You are spot on with the FDA taking on more volume and bringing more generics to market to save on drugs costs to consumers. Saving some on high drugs prices is a big deal now, so generic epipen with get approved. Go to an allergic website where they talk about buying epipens and how expensive they are for families, when they need a 2 pack for school, home, and carry one with them. Mylan is holding a gun on the public with epipen. Soon that will change.
agree bruno, sounds positive...but who knows....
"We also have good news from the FDA, especially on two or three fronts. First of all, they have indicated they have resourced better ODD, so they are ready to take on more volume and more reviews. But also it's not only the volume, they are reviewing more challenging products as the EpiPen, so they have been increasing their expertise on the amount of reviewers. And secondly, we are getting more communication from the FDA.
That for us has been a step forward. We, of course, we would like to hear even more than we hear today, but we feel that very strongly, that they want to communicate better with the industry. They are [stepping] up to that and that to us is very, very helpful, especially when we are preparing for launches. So the indicators are right, Randall, and I'm optimistic that going forward this will improve even further. "
I agree with your thinking and I feel the same way but it still amazes me that this puppy is sitting at 1.97 with all this near term potential...
Same old tired fab 5 drivel every single day 24/7. You are correct. Epi approval is a very big deal and combined with smaller pieces will make ATRS profitable which changes everything on the investment front. My hope would be that when that day comes the Fab 5 disappear into thin air.
In light of Mylan again raising prices of its Epipen, perhaps it should also be noted that it is part of the FDA's responsibility to "advanc[ing] the public health by helping to speed innovations that make medicines more effective, safer, and more affordable" (from FDA "What We Do").
Teva and Antares have been working for many years to make an AB approvable product. Teva is world-class in this and I highly doubt they'll drop the ball on such a project that will be an important revenue source for them. Needless to say, approval will transform Antares completely and I am betting heavily on that. We will soon find out..
Sentiment: Strong Buy
That's ridiculous. Generic Epi is a very big deal and whogo knows that..