When I had a large position, which I accumulated over a couple years, I averaged in the high $3's. Sold $5 calls lowered my basis from there. I sold out high $2's after the PW news, which was the final straw for me, signaling there were major issues, and that the stock would break down further. More recently, I've added shares right around these levels, up to $2.22. Mind you this is a much smaller position than I held previously. I have sold the Nov $2.5 calls against the majority of these shares. All in all, I have lost some money here, but have learned valuable lessons. When you take risks in small cap bio, there are no guarantees as we all know.
They've certainly left themselves vulnerable. Question is how do they re-buff an offer of, let's say $3.25 per share? Given a pipeline that is still a ways away from bearing any fruit in terms of substantive profits, that would be hard to turn down imo. Question is would someone pay it? Teva would have the most incentive, with the positives being immediate savings on partnered royalties, including the almighty epi-pen, $50MM of cash, and potential for Otrexup and QST down the road. Are those things worth $425MM today? Perhaps.
The stock sucks, but no secondary. No need for one as the cash burn should dwindle over the coming quarters as scripts slowly increase.
I am not sure why, but I feel some slight desperation in the trend of your posts. That might be too harsh. Maybe its just anxiety of the wrong momentum developing. Pigs get fat...... Hogs get slaughtered. Maybe that advice fits? time to cover or just time to buy???? Which is it for you.
The stock has been pounded for four reasons - 1) Rasuvo became a competitor (somewhat unexpected until the details of the NDA filing were made public - though their impact to Otrexup is still TBD), 2) uncertainty surrounding the size of the market Otrexup is pursuing (a new nitch is being created, and now with a competitor to boot), 3) the lawsuits between Antares and Medac, and, 4) the unexpected departure of PW leaving.
No amount of cash on hand would have changed the market's attitude about the stock as the result of those events. The market punishes bad news and uncertainty, and it over-punishes stocks that have any of those factors, let alone all of those just mentioned.
IMO, Otrexup will win over Rasuvo more times than not due to having a superior value prop. Better injector platform without the user limitations and concerns that are inherent to the Rasuvo injector. Both are NDA products that must be covered by tier-3 insurance. Once covered by a plan, price is a non-factor (not a way to differentiate) if the co-pay is a non-factor - which it now is for the overwhelming majority of target users. The Otrexup market size will prove to be significant, and more than enough to make Otrexup a very strong cash generator for Antares by 2015 and beyond. The lawsuits will prove to be noise (IMO) as neither side will benefit. End the feud, no consequences, proceed to the playing field and may the better team win. PW leaving was not a forbearer of more bad news, and that was the fear. He's moved on as has Antares. I'm glad to see that they have Bob Apple as the apparent successor to Hobbs. I also expect Apple to be moved up in fairly short order with Hobbs remaining on the BOD.
I'm believing most of these issues will be settled down before the end of this year.
Why would he add more than he already owns? Do you know how much he owns? It is significantly more than you. I am sure.
Nam! I heard "all" hormone therapy is being replaced by GMO's. Estrogen - GONE, Progesterone - Gone. There will be no need for any HT. GMO's are also curing the common cold, headaches, broken bones, heart ailments respiratory ailments etc. I think Whogo is going to need to get out of the healthcare field and get a new Job. Wait! Does he really work in the health care field? I can't remember. Anyone? HE is a very smart guy with a great keyboardside manner. I am sure he will be ok. Everyone has and agenda - Geeze. Just admit it.
CHump change????? 4% of market cap. Hmmm Lets say Pfizer got the equivalent of their market cap. That would be like receiving over $750MM up front. AND they would be happy with a rationally adjusted revenue adjustment. Big picture WHogo. Big picture. Wait, I keep forgetting. You are trading this. Sorry.
Has LOKO ever given you any potential revenue numbers for those programs? The reason ATRS moved away from those deals is because they don't generate significant revenues.
You do remember LOKO's research indicating Amgen's belief that Antares and Teva are working on biosimilars, don't you?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Not surprising that you do not have to "act" to being the second dumbest paid basher on the board, behind #1 Whogo and ahead of #3 daviscupper.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm not a subscriber to the website so that's all the text given without a subscription. The main point is that the FDA will make a decision on the 18th which impacts the value of QST. Its easy to investigate the efficacy & data issues. I actually think they get approved.
It's also funny how you keep acting like the smartest guy in the room....when the scoreboard says the opposite.
Given LOKO's research showing Amgen's belief that Antares and Teva are working on biosimilars, it's hardly farfetched.
Sentiment: Strong Buy