That's exactly what I'm saying... CRAY's earnings are NOT that difficult to project. As a matter of fact, it's one of the easiest that I've come across. OPEX is pretty straight forward. Gross is painfully straight forward. I bought shares prior to the release after having gone back through all of the releases for last year. I made the determination that the analysts are modeling based upon an anticipation that the tax credits will be zero. Interesting that the earnings beat was by roughly the tax credit. I did make a mistake in my calculation for margin. Margin for the remainder of the year needs to be 35.6% instead of my earlier calc of 36.333. I neglected to take into consideration that the percentage of the year that had margin of 31% was only about 15% of the total revenue... Even after this correction, I get earnings of 1.48/share without any impact from taxes. If we assume that there is absolutely NO tax credits left and that the company pays taxes at it's guided 6-10% and use the high end of the spectrum for taxes, I get 1.28/share. Still higher than the 1.22 that the analysts have projected for the year. However, if you take the $635M remainder of company revenues for the year and multiply that by the 35% margin that the company guided and subtract the $154M OPEX left of the guided $195M, you get $68.25M. Subtract 10% for taxes and that gives you $61.425M. Divide that by 41M shares and subtract the Q1 loss and that's how the analysts are getting $1.22 for the year. This means that CRAY is poised for substantial beats over the next three quarters because the company has substantial loss carry forwards and the analysts can't model for the tax credits that will show up in the earnings releases.
At the conference call, mgmt said that Q1 Non GAAP gross margin came in at 31%. They also said that Non GAAP gross margin for the year would be 35%. This means that the average gross margin for the remainder of the year should be in the 36.33% range. Using this number to get a rough estimate into Q2, we see that Gross becomes 130,000,000 * .3633 = $47.23M Opex projections for the year were $195M of which Q1 was $41M which leaves $154 divided into the remaining 3 quarters or $51.3/Q
This means that Q2 should be in the range of $47.23M - $51.3M = -$4.07M or roughly .10/share prior to any credit/debit for tax credits... The company will most likely still have some tax credits to carry forward which should put Q2 at roughly breakeven.
Projecting Q3 if we assume 45% of $715M in Revenue for Q4 gives us $183.25M Revenue for Q3... 183.25*.3633=$66.57M Gross - $51.3Opex = $15.27M/41M shares = .37/share
Projecting Q4, 321.75 * .3633 = $116.9M - $51.3M = $65.6M /41M shares = $1.60/share...
So, even if we do not include any benefit from tax credits, 1.60 + .37 - .10 - .28 = $1.59/share vs. an Analyst Estimate of $1.22/share...
Given the fact that the company projects a tax rate of 6-10% from an earlier projection of 10%, I would have to believe that the tax benefits would be substantial again this year... (last year they were $52M)
Let's assume the rest of the year plays out like Q1 at 66% of last year's credit... that still gives us an $.84 boost to earnings this year which makes earnings look closer to $2.44/share
Let's say that by the end of the year the stock is at a PE multiple of 20... That puts the stock at $48.80/share...
It would be helpful if those who give a thumbs down on posts about earnings would point out the specific parts of my estimate that they disagree with... Just saying...
On the 27, what matters is that corporations are taking notice
That the supercomputer will place you ahead of the pack
Soo long mega bites,farewell gigabits, au revoir terabyte
Im making a living trading. CRAY
In an out. Earnings come out on the 27
It's good fo 34
Was a rough week for CRAY on the pull back, but the 2015 fiscal guidance looks promising so I decided to hang onto my shares even after today's huge rally.
good job islandluvr
i suspect CRAY got some new money coming in considering todays volume
we need more of the same tomorrow
I dont know what else it would take to move a counter beyond its trading range,
Association with intel
More corporations in different sectors realizing speed is absolute
3 different designs at the top ten level
In competition with China
Wall st recognition
And just posted a much welcome narrow loss
there were five analyst who comb through CRAY.
ARE YOU SAYING THAT THEY ALL MISSED reading the earnings report OR CONSPIRED IN SOME WAY.
unless CRAY see increase volume with an increase in share price
this counter will see 27's again ,
highg 31's in the short term
i like the way you think bro,
india's FIRST SUPERCOMPUTER
THERE WILL BE MANY FIRST TO COME
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