I don't know what to think of it honestly. Malone did say there was no time deadline/drop dead date just recently. Swaps or a takeover would be complex so either would take a lot of time. I really don't see either party really wanting a swap at the end of the day. Vodafone is really about pan EU coverage so I don't see why they want a fragmented map. Don't see either of the two parties wanting to walk away from their respective German assets but I could see Malone giving up the UK if there was a juicy enough deal for him which the current Vodafone management isn't known for giving away sweetheart deals.
Malone knows very well the future of talk/text/ISP/TV is going wireless. He is in no different of a position as BT was in the U.K. being a primary fixed player with 5G nearing closer that will render the final mile fixed assets pretty much a redundant and inferior delivery method. LTE-A expanding, let alone approaching 5G, is enough bandwidth to send chills down the spine of a fixed only provider. I recall an article a handful of months back from a UK source that posed the hard question within the piece of their need for even having a fixed ISP given their LTE-A mobile connection. Lots of smartphones and tablets have the ability to run their streaming feed into their smart TV. Notice the Netflix deal by Vodafone......Malone needs to get his hands on the EU banana to remain relevant for the long term. I think his best shot is lining up a buyer for the balance of VOD assets like it was once proposed T was going to do (China Mobile taking India, Orange taking Africa etc....). That would take a significant amount of time.
Have a half thought that if someone like Malone announced a deal that it might get interesting as there are a couple others that have sniffed Vodafone's flank with both now sporting big market caps.
Smalls, Thanks for your T.A. update on VOD. With VOD and Liberty in talks for 3 months now, (with no update given). What do you make of this silence? (Obviously no deal having been agreed). With Malone expressing his desire to get his hands-on VOD’s big banana (European assets). It would seem a long time (3 months) if the talks were only about asset swaps? I don’t think either company would be interested in giving up prime assets in the UK, and Germany. Unless someone is willing to overpay for an asset.
IMHO, The outcome will be a merger of European assets or no deal.
Nige, there is a nice bullish reversal hammer setting up on the weekly chart if Friday market performance is friendly. Not as strong as the one from before bust still there. Think your London listing should bounce back to near the 240p area soon but the GBP/USD doing some goofy stuff so ADR performance will be interesting. GBP reports are all as strong or stronger than the U.S. economic reports.....probably some currency rigging in play but these current guys won't get caught like the last round of big wheels are getting chewed up and spit out by the regulators.