What can we say.. He says "the labor market is approaching our maximum employment objective". Wonder whether he believes in the words that's coming out of his mouth. Using a broken indicator to justify their logic. Not that I think stock market is not over-valued.
Still don't think they can raise rate in Sep. Even if they do, I am betting that it's going to be half or fraction of quarter %. Don't think they have guts to experiment with quarter % rate hike with high dollar, commodity & emerging market collapse, just like how they did when winding down QE3. Obviously, they missed better chance to raise being lack of confidence themselves and waiting for the perfect moment, but cannot admit it, and may still have to do something not to lose credibility further.
I guess we'll see what tomorrow brings when the market opens tomorrow. Good Luck Trading..
Futures are tumbling...
"With inflation low, we can probably remove accommodation at a gradual pace," Fischer said. "Yet, because monetary policy influences real activity with a substantial lag, we should not wait until inflation is back to 2% to begin tightening."
I cannot believe what Fed thinks...
Added a little bit to VXX shares short. Good to see S&P move in a much narrower range whole day. A couple of more days like today may suppress volatility.
Closed 20 SCO deep ITM puts bought.
21 SCO deep ITM calls sold expired worthless. Were very much deep ITM calls but still expired worthless, guess that's the beauty of leveraged ETF. All out from SCO short. Decent gain though could do much better. Would have been nice if it drifted lower going up and down, but the market doesn't care about what I think/wish.
Not much left to roll after closing many of market short positions past couple of weeks.
Account some plus thanks to oil (USO & SCO) despite VXX strength. Don't think FED will tout rate increase this weekend. Looks like they missed chance to raise rate, numbers are deteriorating compared to last year excluding unemployment rate which doesn't mean much given labor participation getting lower and lower, not to mention the turmoil going on. Much needed weekend...
SPY is flat and this thing is up 7%.... Yesterday SPY was up and so was VXX, I know it doesn't directly track the SPY but the price action looks like it is getting bid up way to high.... You know what they say, the higher they go the lower they fall!!
Sentiment: Strong Sell
This thing is so overbought right now it is insane, sickening, call it what you will but there should not be so many buyers in this derivative. It is going to crash HARD & SOON, starting next week I suspect.....
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I do not think backwardation cannot go on forever. As long as VIX spot does not shoot up like last Monday, VXX shorts will be ok. I could be wrong but I believe there is no such an event to shoot up VIX spot in next several days.
(I hope to see VIX spot below or near a 24 level today so that we do not have worry about VXX positions that much this weekend.)
jsp, thinking whether that is the reason why VIX and VIX futures are staying high today while the market is relatively calm. If that's the case, we may see some difference next week.
As VIX is staying high too long VIX futures are catching up to VIX now.
Another possibility is market turning down from here and VIX futures are preparing for it. I have no idea which one, but both are possibilities at this point.
We will hear about a Fed Vice Chairman speech on inflation, which could be an indicator whether or not Fed will raise a rate in September.
Today we have the following story according to Market Watch:
The core gauge of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge grew 1.2%. This is down from the 1.3% pace that had been locked in over the first six months of the year.
“It remains very low,” said Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota in an interview on CNBC right after the numbers were released. He said it will take some time for inflation to return to the 2% target. Kocherlakota also told CNBC that further easing should be considered.
I guess Fed will not raise a rate at this moment if it targets 2%. Anyway we will hear about inflation from Fed Vice Chairman tomorrow.
jsp, I feel the same and that's why I am still waiting for UNG to come down further. NG has been under $3 and in a tight range for so many months this year. Waiting for it to break out to the downside during this shoulder season. If that happens, maybe then I will start building UNG long position for long term hold. Good Luck Trading.
Everyone think Fed will delay raising interest rate! But the U S gdp and housing market and labor market all in good condition. Plus Japan Fed chairman and indornicia fed chairman all expect US raise interest rate ASAP!
Hey pamella-o-sierphr ... "Want to know how I made 600% ..." ehhh ?!?
website. Is your handle a real birth name ? If so, apply to the courts for a name change. Your parents
ought to be ashamed for spelling "Pamella" with 2 el's. "Sierphr?" What third world country name is that
from ?!? 2. Then ... Get Lost ! !
Hey ici-paints-player ... " ... that was why oil sky rocketed today!" ehhh ?!?
1. If you are implying ... always being wrong ... after making a stock play ... your strength is offering a stock
subscription service named "Opposite Play." Let subscribers know what you purchased, we buy the opposite !!
2. You do the "rolling on the floor laughing" ... while the rest of us ... "roll in brokerage account green."