These are all the prescription numbers available on GLATOPA to date since launch (from the IMS numbers posted on the MNTA IHUB board) -- Thanks to Pollyvonwog
Prescription Numbers from 7/24
TRX: Copax = 10,777 Glatopa = 957
NRX: Copax = 3,324 Glatopa = 755
NRX Quantity: Copax = 67,971 Glatopa = 26,198
Prescription Numbers from 7/17
TRX: Copax = 10,977 Glatopa = 939
NrX: Copax = 3,008 Glatop = 794
NRX Quantity Counts for 6-26, 7-2, 7-10
7/10: Copaxone = 58,173 Glatopa = 28,056
7/2: Copaxone = 50,551 Glatopa = 16,075
6/26: Copaxone = 53,193 Glatopa = 600
NRX / TRX Counts for 6-26, 7-2, 7-10
7-10: copax 10,724 glatopa 963
7-2: copax 9866 glatopa 526
6-26 copax 11337 glatopa 20
NRX is New Prescriptions or renewals
TRX is Total Prescriptions.
NRX Quantity for GLATOPA should be 30 (31) syringes / prescription (One month supply)
NRX Quantity for Copaxone is a mix of the 20 mg / 40 mg prescriptions -- 30 (31) syringes for the 20 mg prescription and about 13 (14) syringes for the thrice weekly 40 mg
The TRX counts for GLATOPA should go up to 2,000 and beyond in a couple of weeks as renewals start kicking in.
My guess is that in a few months we get to about 3,000- 4,000 in TRX for GLATOPA and about 7,000 - 8,000 for Copaxone. Getting a bigger share would then depend on what happens with the patent for the Copaxone 40 mg. If that is invalidated, GLATOPA should get to 50-60% of total sales.
MNTA should slowly start going up in price as people start realizing that this is going to mean real money coming in. There will always be an overhang with a possible approval for Mylan/NATCO's generic. However, it should not be as big an overhang when people thought that TEVA would get a generic Lovenox approval 3-4 years ago (Amphastar did and Teva didn't then). That is because the profit sharing agreement for generic Copaxone is always 50-50 regardless of how many generics there are.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
great! $30 would get me the hood and the tires... my factory ordered McLaren 650 Spider is taking shape.... varroooM!... k
The Enoxoparin announcement was interesting this morning . No more royalty sharing straight 50/50 profit share.
He is part of the administration that sold over 7 million shares at 19 while it was trading at 20. This action only hours from the approval to market the new drug. His leaving should be celebrated. Buy, buy, buy.
What was their assessment prior to doubling? If they were bullish then more power to them - if they didn't have a clue then why would I pay attention to them now?
how many times do we see recommendations that turn out completely wrong? Do we ever see the analysts come out and apologize for their wrong calls? No, they just let their recommendations fade into obscurity. Until the next wrong call. Best to ignore them completely -to me, it's just amazing how the cattle follow and react to these "opinions"....................
just because a stock doubles does not make a good reason to cry foul.... my guess is they're #$%$ that they didn't get to participate as brokers in the offering ...
then there's Mylan... they claim that in a years time, Mylan will come out with a generic Copaxone... Why a year? Why not two or three or never?... they may have the inside scoop with the company, but, do they have the inside scoop with the FDA?... anyway I believe in a years time MNTA/Sandoz will already have switched the majority of the 1x patients and paved the way for the newly diagnosed market to their doorstep... good luck wrenching that away from the grips of Sandoz...
The generic Copaxone by Natco which Mylan is relying on has been tested by the FDA... and you can bet that team MNTA/Sandoz tested it too... judging from the way they priced Glatopa, i believe they see no near term threat... mooo! k
Section 271(e)(1) Does Not Protect Defendants’ Commercial Use Of
Momenta’s Patented Invention Because That Use Is Not Reasonably
Related To The Development And Submission Of Information To FDA
This is very good news.
See MNTA newgroup on Investors Hub for details
Sentiment: Strong Buy
There are 7 mentions of GLATOPA in NVS's earnings presentation. But it doesn't include exact GLATOPA revenue numbers.
Sandoz US sales +23%, driven by Glatopa™, Dermatology
Note: It would be silly to highlight Sandoz sales being up 23% with very minimal revenues from GLATOPA. So, there must have been significant inventory stocking revenues for GLATOPA.
DewDiligence comes up with 70 million using the logic below (on IHub):
NVS’ Sandoz Division’s YoY growth was high single digits excluding Glatopa, according to NVS’ 2Q15 CC (time 59:35). For the sake of discussion, let’s say “high single digits” is 8%.
We know that the Sandoz Division overall grew 11% YoY in constant currency; hence, Glatopa sales represented about 3% of the 2Q14 Sandoz sales of $2.33B, or about $70M.
A sizable portion of 2Q15 Glatopa sales were for inventory stocking, according to NVS.
He then assumes that MNTA's take will be $19 million
Glatopa’s operating margin subject to profit-sharing by MNTA won’t be as high as 80% because of the contractual amount NVS levies for selling expenses (irrespective of how much NVS actually spends on selling) is probably at least 20% on its own.
Moreover, COGS will initially be fairly high as the fixed costs of production are spread over the relatively small revenue base.
For 2Q15, I estimate that the Glatopa operating margin will be 55%. Applying this rate to the $70M estimate for sales and dividing by 2 gives about $19M for MNTA’s (pre-tax) take.
So, Q2 will be close to break-even if you add the $10 million milestone payment for launch and $2-3 million for Enox revenues
Sentiment: Strong Buy
That brief didn't go without a hitch however... MNTA's legal team is found wanting- they fumbled the ball... Luckily the officials called the play dead... So no worries, the defendants are still on the hook.... MNTA scored a touchdown... k
AP reports.... "CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (AP) -- Biogen cut its full-year adjusted profit forecast Friday as sales of one of its multiple sclerosis drugs, Tecfidera, slow down."
I think this is good news for us... Glatopa is making an impact... moo k
now down ~ 19% ($73.00)... wiping out ~$18 Billion in BIIB's market cap...
if there's such a thing as 'zero sum game'... a good portion of that money should be going to MNTA's market cap... my opinion only k
Nice!... And in this Glatopa franchise, MNTA does not need to do anything except look at their bank account grow... k
Well, well, well... like Rousey, MNTA throws a counter punch that may knock out Amphastar...
"Oral Argument at 51:57 (Judge Moore: “Are you required to perform the patented process by the FDA, or are you required to determine whether or not it is 15-25% compliant?” Amphastar’s counsel: “It is the latter. And the way that Amphastar satisfies the latter is by doing the official USP test.”); id. at 52:48 (Judge Moore: “But let me go back to my question one more time. Are you required to perform the patented process by the FDA?” Amphastar’s counsel: “No, your honor. We perform that to satisfy the FDA requirement that it satisfy the 15-25% requirement.”).
Amphastar on a tizzy...
hits mat feeling dizzy...
and the crowd goes crazy
one!.... two!.... three!
shouts the referee!!!...
but Amphastar goes zzzzzz....
A little of both but mainly Sandoz has a leash around their neck is my guess... revealing details now while the market is shaping up may open them up for lawsuits. Too many variables... Lawyers will swoop in at the first sign of stumble... things will get clearer as time goes by... but yeah, wouldn't it be nice to have the upper hand by knowing if MNTA is doing exceptionally well or not... to me I'm just satisfied that they have an income now... this is significant... moo k
Far from conclusive that this is "The next big thing" for MNTA. Two appellate court decisions could actually allow revenue to flow to this company, this might allow you to design your car. I happen to prefer McLaren. You should always take advantage of a factory tour and test drive.
I don't usually comment on after hours trading, but the volume and price action on Friday, May 29 caught my attention. In retrospect, I was correct in bringing it to the attention of the longs on this board.
Happens! Then is or a bit lower could happen a whole lot sooner. I see a combo with this company as it's propellant and booster to the aquirer to launch it much higher, like a quick $10-12 and that is a screaming deal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The merging company would get a plethora of awesome future developments, Biosimilar and Proprietary, Necuparinib who I told my good friend that just got diagnosed to become a test subject! This cancer kills fast, the results looks promising and the side effects less than a hangover, get it done Momenta!!!
The CEO said he would sign all day long partnerships for 50/50 split , No one seams to be presenting those to him. More than likely appellate court wont hand them any victory before Sept 1 patent expiration date, courts just take a long time. Small amount of cold water there. Enoxoparin appeal seams pie in the sky. Most phase 1 trials (Necuparanib) allways looks good for dosing and adverse reactions-wait for phase 3 results to either laugh or cry. Warmer water would be; 2 platforms every year in 5 years, with their science should produce very 10 promising candidates .Recent offering gives them cash to advance a few things.