Based on other oil and gas trusts payout announcements for this October, I expect this months dividend to be cut by 40%.
Put in an order at $7.90 gtc. It will most likely come to you. They will cut the pay out because gas has fallen way below $4. $7.90 is probably a good entry price. We will see nat gas rise as winter comes. However, that won't until a couple of months pass.
I'm looking to buy back in myself but would like to see sub $8 but I'm not sure it will happen unless they cut the pay out.
I was short; but I wasn't desperate or lying. Now that HGT is getting down to a reasonable price, I will be going long shortly. I will let you know when I do.
I predicted a big fall, and that fall has come. I also said I would buy in when the price became reasonable. It is getting in the reasonable range.
I must not have been too desperate. I closed out my short with a tidy gain. HGT fell significantly. My only regret is, I should have held on longer and made a lot more money. I told all of you HGT was significantly overvalued. I was correct. The market proved me correct. By the way a strong dollar does affect the price of gas. Any commodity traded based on the dollar, is affected by the price of dollar. The increase in the value of the dollar is the main contributing factor for the falling prices in gas and oil.
The big problem with gas is its abundant and we have a rising dollar. HGT is lower and will remain lower because of the abundance of gas in the US, the strong $ and the declining production of HGT's wells.
I feel sorry for you die hard longs. You have lost a bundle by not selling HGT and then buying back at a lower price. You will never see HGT again valued above $10. You will be lucky to see $9 in the near future. Long-term you will see HGT go to $0. The wells will be depleted. You should consider your investment to be a return of original investment plus profits. The stated yield is very misleading.
Fair value is around $10. Everything related to commodities is getting decimated. All about natural gas prices, and those have stabilized already. A cold, or at least normal winter would be nice.
While it's true that the 10k does say that, it also bases that npv on the current low price of natural gas lasting for the next 20 years. Change the nat gas price to 2005 levels and you get an npv of north of 35 per share. In the 1980's when the San Juan Trust was formed it's statements implied that it's wells would run dry long before today. Higher prices and revisions changed those assumptions. Even more dramatic example would be Bpt (Prudhoe bay trust)
I think more realistic npvs are founded on the mcdep web site but that's just my biased view.
I think there is too much attention to the current dividend when this is a 20 year or longer investment.
Perhaps in the short term tax loss selling will drop this even further as it did last year, that just makes it even a better investment. long term however.
tony, wanttruthinvestor has been right on everything that he said so far.... you realize that, right? i want to disagree with what he is saying too, but after some point you need to face the truth.... just saying.
In the last year oil has dropped from 112 to 92+. Of course royalty trusts like HGT have fallen too. Oil has fallen and come back before and I believe it will again. When it does HGT will follow. If oil falls more I will buy more HGT.
So what will be the low on this? I know its just a wild A-- guess but lets hear it. It would be nice to know if the divi will be cut and by how much so we calculate a great buy price. The question is will nat gas prices fall from here stay level or rise.
Oh the last time I bought in it raised the unit price. I'm not sure I will be doing as much this time.
I have been out of HGT for awhile now but I'm thinking about getting back in. I just put in a order to sell some puts so that will be the deciding factor if I'm in or out. Time will tell.
When I saw HGT this low, I decided to close my short position. When HGT gets around $8, which it will, I will go long. I have to pay out the monthly dividends when I am short. This eats into my profits, and with so many of you believing a fable, HGT is not falling as rapidly as I thought it would. You should thank me for supporting HGT today. I bought 2,100 shares to cover my short. Unfortunately, for you and me, HGT fell another 10 cents after I covered.