One of them runs SDOI which I have a position in. He has been president for about 2 years and hasn't done a darn thing. (Its an empty shell)
Gamco owns 1.02%.
This cant hurt and I suspect PBY might agree to 2-3 of them.
Good to hear from you again. I remember you. I too would not touch ORLY, DAP or AZO. PBY is in a different situation. It is the perennial turnaround story or buyout story. Has been for almost 20 years. Real estate is main support worth $9-10 and perhaps more now. We got a clue of that based on relocating a few stores or closing stores and selling the real estate this last quarter. The tax people just increased my appraisal for my personal home by $70,000 for this year after $50,000 last year. It is causing me to rethink PBY's real estate values. PBY's has been so poorly run and mismanaged it's pathetic. I said this year's ago when I posted a turnaround plan and offered to fix PBY's for $1 a year and options only if I got the stock price above $14. It can be done but time is running out. I am waiting to see who the CEO is going to be. DaninFW
I was also buying lots of PBY back in the same time period....we conversed several times and I too made a lot of money on PBY.
my latest thesis is less good for these auto parts suppliers. At the time we were entering the great recession and major catalyst for their business was people retaining and fixing their cars. Now that the O'riely and auto zone and advance have run up so much, I'm actually short their stocks. I think the boom times are over regardless what the analysts say aboiut increased drive miles due to cheap fuel. I'm thinking people start buying large quantities of new cars and predict north of 20 million per year sales. Eventually this will cause and downward slide in prices and total revenue will pressure net margin for these companies.
Im a big seller but would love to hear your opinion as to why I might be wrong about this.
It's been a few years and I would have to research but I do remember buying 77,000 at one time. I usually trade 40,000-60,000 when I trade/buy. But, I usually buy 20,000-30,000 and if it pops I sell. If it drops I average down. DaninFW
especially at the big qty's you acquire...what's the biggest PBY position you have ever taken? 100,000 shares?
Based on history you should do okay. But, as I have said for a year or so now......if any of the big holders finally give up and dump it could get ugly. Gabelli has been supporting for almost two years now. I may miss out this time but I don't plan to buy until it bottoms and I see a narrow trading range for several days. I would rather it go up a dime or so and I buy then buy now and it drop 50 cents or dollar. DaninFW
I feel comfortable buying at $8.50- I don't expect to grab the exact bottom anyways. At $8.50, I believe the stock presents way more reward then risk. Lower expectations are a good thing...they make it easier to surpass them. Under promise and over deliver. I love to buy wholesale and sell retail. At $8.50 you can be assured you are buying wholesale. After all. wall street is nothing more than a big merchandising game.
The analysts in the last 7 days have lowered expect in 2015 from 37 cents to 16 cents and in 2016 from 39 cents to 24 cents. The poor performance of PBY's will also not allow for top dollar in a buyout with current problems exposed. Not a long term investment IMVHO but always a great trading stock. I believe we will dip below $8.50 and possibly even $8 especially if current overall market continues to weaken. Taking over 7 months to get a CEO also says something is going on in the background. Stock will pop or drop depending on who they announce but they better get a heavy weight this time. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Im still holding my shares. Feel pretty confident that $12-15 will be seen in the next 2-3 years.
Bought a $25 PBY giftcard off Discover for $20, About time for an oil change. They don't make much off $19.99 oil changes.
The reason it's down still on a strong market today is that there is a MM who is squeezing those who bought yesterday in the 8.90 - 9.10 range.
This will continue rest of the week and price will hover between 8.50 - 8.75 and then back above 9 next week. They did the same play Dec 8th thru 12th when the last earning came out. So sit tight LONGS, don't put any stops, they took out some weak hands at 8.70 today !!
Might be a dead cat bounce too. I would not be surprised if we are close to the low as Gabelli is probably shoring up. Still down on a strong market however. Argus came out today and lowered their projections but left it a strong buy and price target of $15. They have done this every quarter for at least a year now. That might be giving it support. I wouldn't touch unless around $8.50. Average consensus now is just $9. DaninFW