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AxoGen, Inc. Message Board

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  • Looks like AXGN is about to breakout to the upside. I like this action.

  • BioLargo (BLGO) and Lockheed have proven and game changing technologies to help create abundant water for everyone.

    BioLargo’s AOS Filter close to commercialization while Lockheed’s Graphene Filter is about 3 to 5 years away.

    To read report, copy and paste and google: Desalination Industry Screams for Cost Cutting Innovation: Lockheed And BioLargo Hold Key Technologies. Seeking Alpha.

    BioLargo is Strong Buy with $3.00 12-month Price Target

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anticipated profitability

    by aetheranimus Mar 6, 2015 9:38 AM

    Often heard... but if that's the case they would need to guide for the next 6 years. After which time they will pay and have paid some 50 m for the 25 m loan... or a net 25 m to make it sound better. They raised the cash to use it, so technically we have an EV of 107 + 10 m or so for options, if the cash is used. Or EV is now 7x fy2014 sales. That's what they need to grow into! 80% margin was maybe what the market expected for guidance for 2015? Need that to pay the royalty!

  • On the company's investor call this morning, they said they had enough cash on hand to reach profitability. Management had always followed through on its projections (which tend to be conservative), so this is wonderful news. It seems largely a matter of waiting now to see how large and how quickly the market for their products develop. With an $82MM market cap, there is a whole lot of upside potential.

  • Reply to

    Why higher than $2.75

    by kvzeyde Feb 5, 2015 5:09 PM

    it was a shelf offering. no open market trades. A nice profit for the new shareholders with a 180 day lockup. That profit from 2.75 to current prices will keep the new investors in their stock.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Did better on sales than analysts interpreted "guidance"... added a bit to 2015 as well. Need a stepup to the qly rev rate though, maybe due to salespeople finally getting productive?

  • Three Austrian men who completely lost the use of their hands because of devastating nerve damage have been fitted with robotic hands that they can control with their thoughts.

    Sensors were then attached to the patient’s forearm and the signals sent to the image of a “virtual hand” on a computer screen. As the patient looked at the virtual hand, he was asked to “think” of a movement, such as opening his palm.

    The patients practiced this for several months. The exercise had the effect of gradually strengthening the nerve signals that would eventually be used to control a bionic hand. “The patient needs brain training” about how to use his hand “since he hasn’t thought about his hand for several years,” Dr. Aszmann said.

    The patients then practiced by using their thoughts to control a hybrid hand, which is a prosthetic device attached to the nonfunctioning hand. Once the patients had mastered the hybrid prosthetic—providing evidence that it could be controlled by thoughts alone— their useless and nonfunctioning hand was amputated.

    A prosthetic hand was then attached. Thanks to the earlier training, a patient could control it merely by thinking about different movements.

  • Great Article link below I think AXGN could be in the CLUB



    http://abovethecrowd.com/2011/05/24/all-revenue-is-not-created-equal-the-keys-to-the-10x-revenue-club/


    ALL REVENUE IS NOT CREATED EQUAL/ THE KEYS TO THE 10X CLUB
    1. SUSTAINABLE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE (WARREN BUFFET’S MOAT)
    2. THE PRESENCE OF NETWORK EFFECTS
    3. VISIBILITY/PREDICTABILITY ARE HIGHLY VALUED
    4. CUSTOMER LOCK-IN / HIGH SWITCHING COSTS
    5. GROSS MARGIN LEVELS
    6. MARGINAL PROFITABILITY CALCULATION
    7. CUSTOMER CONCENTRATION
    8. MAJOR PARTNER DEPENDENCIES
    9. ORGANIC DEMAND VS. HEAVY MARKETING SPEND
    10. GROWTH

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • between 3rd and 4th quarters. Good yoy results.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • AXGN has huge potential going forward. just added 10K shares to my position @ $3.15 range now
    Im long with 55 thousand shares

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Bruce Jackson estimates 2016 revenue at $33.6 million and indicates 5x revenue = $5.50/share
    He also said cash from the offering de-risks this investment and the increase in sugeon seminars( which the cash infusion will help fund) increase product usage by 60% when attending which was well over 100 at the last seminar..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why higher than $2.75

    by kvzeyde Feb 5, 2015 5:09 PM

    Good news is that there was max demand... bad news is that it led to max dilution!

  • Reply to

    Why higher than $2.75

    by kvzeyde Feb 5, 2015 5:09 PM

    The other rule is that you raise capital when you can, not when you need! Another "law" is that price goes up when the potential dilution overhang is removed for a while.Like mot businesses that went public via r/m, this co is cash poor... still.

  • Reply to

    Why higher than $2.75

    by kvzeyde Feb 5, 2015 5:09 PM

    I asked myself that question, and was at first frustrated with the dilution. But...as I read the releases, Axogen had about $12MM at the end of 3Q and were burning a bit more than $3MM in cash each quarter. Looks like they sold a bit more than $3MM in stock in connection with the refinancing in 4Q, so maybe they ended 2014 with $12MM in cash. That means they operate for one year before going broke, which is what management keeps saying: "we have cash for anohter 12 months". Ok. They are going to keep spending cash like mad to keep growing like mad; 50% growth does not come cheap. Management so far has continued to demonstrate that they have a game-changing product, and that they can scale production and sales fast enough to dominate a new market. I am not aware of a competing product under development (anyone know differnetly?). So what is the greatest risk? That they run out of money. Amara's law: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." Even if Axogen's product is a winner, it will take awhile, and if they run out of cash someone savvy comes in and buys the platform for nothing. Happens all the time; you cannot negotiate a deal for debt or equity if you are about to miss payroll in 60 days. So as best I can tell Axogen's greatest risk is running out of cash; 12 months is nothing. Axogen pockets $12MM from this stock offering, meaning they should have around $24MM, minus the $3MM they blow in 1Q15, leaving $21MM. That is twice the time/capacity to prove themselves as they had before the offering. That (i) massively reduces the risk they run out cash, and (ii) demonstrates that management not only can develop a killer product and sell it, but also raise cash in a viable (if painful) manner. The largest threat to Axogen just got hugely reduced. So the act of raising $12MM in cash raises value of the company by more than $12M. Hopefully.

  • Reply to

    Why higher than $2.75

    by kvzeyde Feb 5, 2015 5:09 PM

    Time will tell if the share price goes up after the new public offering. I don't see it as downside protection but rather, as dilution with the increased # of shares. Thanks for your input.

  • Reply to

    Why higher than $2.75

    by kvzeyde Feb 5, 2015 5:09 PM

    I'm in ORBC and it slipped $.60 to the offering price of $5.60 on 11-7-2014 and proceeded to rally past $6.75 by 11-25-2014. I had GTT and it also traded higher.

    There are a lot of things that go into a decision to buy or sell. If there are enough buyers who think there is a compelling product with AXGN and they think there is a good risk to reward, they can push up the tape as long as there are holders willing to hold for higher prices in the future..

    Any shares I sell today are not likely to trade too much below $2.75 for quite a while and if the product gains traction, upside is big. That's a good deal for buyers. It's a little downside protection. So if I'm offering that, why wouldn't I wait for a higher price, say $3.00- $3.20?

  • Why is anyone paying more than $2.75 a share for this when the new upcoming public offering is for $2.75??

  • Reply to

    Playing it by the big guy rules

    by culleraa Feb 5, 2015 7:24 AM

    Looks like ceiling: same pricing as last time! only that was to shake some stuff off. 20% dilution again now ... so we really need that growth. Price all the cash and debt as shares and we got 18 m new shares equivalent from around 18 previous so all told 50% of the co gone! History now though.

AXGN.OB
3.850.0000(0.00%)Feb 24 10:38 AMEST