Agree, but the short position is still apparently quite large. Hopefully, they are wrong this time. Perhaps they will hedge with options. They have substantial resources for deep diligence, as do the big investors (Knoll, ACT) holding long positions.
Timeline from 2013 SPRING:
Apr 25 - completed enrollment
Aug 14 - results released
Nov 5 - FDA starts review
Dec 2 - FDA declares results pivotal:
“This recommendation is based on the fact that study AP-003-A was adequate (n=329) and well controlled (normal saline), the trial conduct was acceptable and the study met its primary endpoint (change in WOMAC score at 12 weeks).”
The 12wk endpoint for SPRING was July 18. There is therefore a 4 wk interim. The date of the last visit is not exact, the data has to be collected, locked down and analyzed. The company has the 4-day rule to time the PR.
Based on this, a reasonable expectation would be the week of July 18th.
Please also note FDA clause: "the trial conduct was acceptable" per my prior comments about rumors of PIVOT results leaking.
The stock is up $2 in 19 trading days. If anyone bought it down there it doesn't hurt to ring the cash register. Remember cyclically the stock collaped a year ago today.
Ah yes - the horns of that dilemma are sharp! I'd be really ticked if they did another offering before the results. But MM dilemma is what do you say to the folks on the roadshow about the prospects with no trial results - and who the h3ll would buy??
Bill, can you give us your best guess at ETA for trial results given what's been disclosed about the enrollment, etc. - and all you know about the FDA processes please? THANK YOU!
My B.S. detector has been on alert with the latest version of the bio pumper. The cash position was rather low on an historical basis at year end. However, the AYTU fiasco crushed the stock, so it didn't make sense to sell shares near $2. Magically, the normal window of opportunity opened (a few weeks after a blow-up), combined with a brand new bio 'analyst'. At least at these levels, the dilution is reduced. When do we see the big print?
This is all or nothing guys. The shorts aren't "toast" unless the trial is a success, and if its not, then they win. Nothing else matters. However, I think everyone can agree that any short that didn't cover when this was sub $2 is taking much more of a gamble than those who are long at this point. Why in the world would any short have been so greedy they didn't cover sub $2? On the slight chance this goes to $0? It would only make sense if they started shorting near those levels, which I think would be even more of a dumb move, given that there was bound to be a much better point to get in on a short before the conclusion of the trial.
Good point. Does MM wait for the price to rise enough then tap the shelf as an insurance policy should the trial fail again? It's not needed if the trial works but it won't be worth it after a failure.
With this stock, just when it appears that the shorts are toast, somehow they've been able to escape out of the box canyon. Remember the predictions in November and December, due to the AYTU distribution? Why they didn't cover in January and February is anyone's guess. This time, does the $25MM shelf give them another opportunity to escape?
Yes, the technicals say it could go quickly to $4.95 or so. But the bigger catalyst is there are about 6.5 MILLION shares short! So they have great pressure to cover unless they are short from much higher levels - and would be fools to not have covered already. So that's over 30 TRADING days avg volume that has to be bought to cover shorts. Yeah Baby!! GLTA Longs!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This baby will run higher to close the gap created a year ago. Call option buying extremely bullish signaling investors realize upside opportunity.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This is typical. AMPE has a large network of loyal longs that have been through the ups and downs. When the upswings begin like this it means there are no shares for sale and it's time to cover if you are short. Here we go again.
As I noted in the other (now deleted) thread about rumors - remember the past ones re:STRIDE. Anecdotal cases are useless to project outcome and No One (patient, doctor, AMPE employee) knows if it was saline or Ampion. STRIDE proved that under some conditions patients felt 50% or more pain relief with saline injections. Let's hope those conditions do not get repeated.
If it is true, then the blind is broken and the trial will be declared invalid. Even if it's not AMPE employees involved. So, let's hope it's all complete BS. If the trial is properly conducted to reproduce SPRING there is a reasonable chance that results will repeat on an independent population.
I hear ya. Lots of the long holders from that 3.5 years back and even 10 years back view these boards and keep pretty quiet. It was about a year ago today that the trial failed. Our chips stayed in, we waited another 365 and here we are again. One last acceleration to results. I wish the best for all longs along this last part. Come July we should know one way or the other good luck to all that have their chips placed on the pass line.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
After 3 + years 4th of July fireworks will be well deserved for many of us. Hard to enjoy until it's over but very ready for the finish line.
Good to see you are still around. The uptrend is great and a repeat pattern of all other Phase IIIs.
Those rumors had better be BS. It's a double-blinded trial so no one (except the statistician) is supposed to know who got the real drug and what the result was. Any leakage from AMPE or investigators can introduce bias or otherwise failure to retain masking. Result: the trial will be declared invalid since it was not "well controlled".
Also, as improbable (and still unexplained (at least publicly)) as it was: saline had more than 50% pain reduction at some clinics in STRIDE. I sincerely hope they (a) corrected the source of that problem and (b) don't cause yet another problem by protocol violations and (c) don't over-manage at the clinical level to the point of introducing bias.