I have spent several hours going over and over the past couple news releases covering the temperature mishap, Management QA, going forward plans etc. Hell, I even went over old NRs from 2011 just to make sure I am not missing anything.
I dont get it? The story hasn't changed! I know many sold due to that slime ball AFs comments. To me - he crossed a line and needs to be put in his place. He has done the same thing to many other biotechs. It is evident he has an agenda. Why sell? Look what he did to NWBO. You have to respect AMPEs management team for not responding and stooping to that rats level.
Alot of you here also sold because of the low life #$%$ on here slamming the company. Again, it is very clear the shorts have an agenda and will continue to drive the AMPE share price down as low as possible. Why sell into them?
The freezing/temperature issue was completely out of Ampios control. They did the right thing by notifing us, the patients and FDA. #$%$ happens.
We KNOW the drug works. So big deal if we have to wait another five months. I agree it sucks to watch the SP take a beating every day, but it will recover. I am not worried. I see no reason Ampio will not get BLA by early next year. They are taking the right steps to ensure this happens.
To the cowards hiding behind your keyboard slamming the CEO and mangement team at AMPE - be carefull. What you are posting is defamation and slander. All it is going to take is someone (like me) to report the posts and if Ampio's team want to pursue legal action, YAHOO is legally responsible to provide IP addresses and other contact info they have. If you think I am joking.....Google: Stockhouse Board Posters Sued.
As a shareholder it is my responsibility to protect my investment and I will do so. So you little slime balls....keep slamming the CEO and management team. I dare you.
The share price may drift down, and alot of you may sell but it is your own fault. No one else!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I have almost never gotten involved in the immature drivel and personal arguments on this board. In this instance I find it so very unfortunate that such a strong and long time supporter of AMPE (ri66) has shown himself to so small minded, bigoted and ignorant. I hope this doesn't reflect poorly on the truly intelligent and open minded AMPE supporters. One cannot hope to change a closed mind, but can only hope that others that bear witness to its limitations and distorted views act and respond in such a way that reflects it's impropriety... in this or any other forum.
The Citi analyst covering AMPE published an update entitled "Maturing Pipeline:If you Dismiss It You Miss It" and it was released today to Citi's institutional clients.
The introduction is as follows:
Maturing Pipeline: If You Dismiss It You Miss It
Conclusion(s) — We believe AMPE’s valuation meaningfully discounts both the
late-stage and large commercial potential of the company's two Ph 3 assets. Data
from Ampion's second P3 trial in osteoarthritis and Optina’s P3 for diabetic
blindness readout in 3Q and 4Q, respectively. We continue to view the unusual
level of positive regulatory feedback on Ampion and lower risk bioequivalence US
regulatory path approach for Optina are broadly overlooked by the Street. With two
shots on goal and near-term catalysts we believe AMPE should not be dismissed.
Ampion Trial Exploring Potential Breakthrough Cartilage— AMPE recently
initiated a trial for Ampion to explore prior early signals from the Ph 3 SPRING trial
of the drug’s potential to stimulate regeneration of cartilage in osteoarthritis patients.
We found literature to support the biologic rationale of human albumin’s role in this
process and even early supportive data of cartilage formation would be a major
breakthrough with potential to multiply this already multi-billion dollar WW market.
Next up; confirmatory P3 STEP trial data on osteoarthritis of the knee during 3Q:14.
Optina’s Ph3 Strategy on DME Risky: But Modest Credit in the Stock— Last
week AMPE decided to end enrollment early for its Ph3 trial of diabetic macular
edema (DME) agent Optina, with data ~YE. Signs of patients benefits/declines
when starting/stopping therapy in an un-blinded treatment extension is risky in
making broad assumptions of the blinded potion of the trial. However, given a
majority of patients had failed currently approved agents, we believe even these
efficacy observations cannot be completely dismissed. What also appears
overlooked is that the base drug in Optina has been approved
Underground Stock Alerts* (google em) just came out with a detailed report on AMPE today - I recommend any fellow shareholders here sign up immediately and wait for the next update, last time they alerted a stock as a buy it went up 1350%, and last two times they put out sell ratings the stocks dove over 75% - don't be the last to know and get screwed, I learned my lesson on their AAPL sell alert, and GOOG buy alert sub $300
There is NO PROBLEM associated with the drug Ampion or any drug in Ampio's pipeline. This is only a procedural problem where we do not even know the magnitude yet. And that procedural problem has created a huge misperception and heavy selling that is creating an opportunity for the experienced and the knowledgeable.
Even though shares have tanked, STEP results are not in yet and are still unknown.
What we do know is that Ampion has performed exceptionally well even in the Spring Study where the FDA called results "ROBUST".
Since then, we have seen astonishing results from the multiple injection study and that study is expanding to much larger numbers. With safety and efficacy data so strong, and with the need so high, it seems more likely that the FDA will do what they can to expedite so millions of patients suffering from pain and potential costly and high risk surgery can benefit.
Shareholders and traders are certainly free to act on any decisions they make, but I strongly believe this will turn out to be another amazing buying opportunity.
The amount of really big news in the short term from multiple events is overwhelming and those investors and traders who buy now or hold will be rewarded very handsomely.
Judging on the price of shares today, most will disagree with me, but that is the the way it is, and is also what provides the opportunity to make very large returns on investment.
Ampio has not been diminished in any way. I predict that shareholders will quickly do a 180 and will be cheering and praising management.
Think carefully before making decisions that you will regret later.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Like racavalli justly said,he talks from both sides of his mouth,one of the reason I cut my stake in ampe to almost nothing. I don't know who is worse ,donper,frdstein,or billyboy here. Be careful.
the numbers of total knee arthroplasties performed in the US are upwards of 800,000 and growing. Payment is generally by government backed insurance.This a large and and growing financial burden. The science behind Ampions main ingredient human albumin and its biologic anti inflammatory activity is already known. (Google it! ) This novel approach to the conservative management of osteoarthritis will manage symptoms delaying entry into the operating room,and will be accepted by the FDA if solely for its money saving potential.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Haven't seen you post here before, but you speak wise words, come back and help others and me in particular keep the story straight. Thank you.
Management certainly would not be initiating this new trial if it was based on the response of just a few patients as Bill Williams suggested.
After speaking directly with several people involved in prior trials including Dr. Yvonne Lungershausen, (the Senior Director of the Phase II trial) it has observed and known that patients in general show dramatic improvement within hours of the injection and that THE DATA KEEPS GETTING BETTER AND BETTER IN WEEKS AND MONTHS THEREAFTER.
Physician's and even Ampio management were elated when this striking data was first revealed, but when the data repeatedly kept getting better and better with time, everybody was at a complete loss of words. I spoke with Don Wingerter, the previous CEO who years ago predicted that Ampion would trigger recruitment of stem cells to the injured area without the need for harvesting.
Based on the plethora of observations during multiple trials, it is now all but certain that Ampion regenerates cartilage and the only missing piece of the puzzle is this final trial with the endpoint being proof of cartilage regeneration.
Readers of today's press release overlooked the strong implication that this kind of technology will not only benefit cartilage regeneration for any part of the body, but the most significant implication is that if this is so, Ampion may eliminate the need for harvesting stem cells in stem cell therapy.
Remarkable results from recent stem cell trials have demonstrated that stem cell therapy is the most exciting space in medicine because it is about to transform medicine rapidly by improving treatments and lowering costs.
If Ampion does in fact regenerate cartilage, (and it does strongly appear that way) Ampio may also become the new leader in stem cell therapeutics that can be used to regenerate damaged hearts, lungs, kidneys, bones, organs, and to treat cancer.
Ampio's future is already very bright, but with this new potential increases it by magnitudes.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I've been up for more than half the night after the shareholder meeting. Its been a combination of frustration and impatience, and uncontrollable excitement. In over 40 years of business, I have never, ever, seen the prospect of this kind of short squeeze. It is truly one of biblical proportions when one considers what is sure to be on the horizon for AMPE. Ups and downs, goof ups, acts of G-d, whatever. There is very, very little doubt that what they have, is one of the most valuable new drugs and discoveries in a long time. And frankly, OA (knee or otherwise) is only a minor, first step, subset of the many wonders of Ampion. And i shudder to even think about the added value of the much maligned Optina, as well as the unspoken quiet giant of NCE001 for cancer (David Bar-Or is nothing if not prolific in his scientific discoveries).
Someone, a couple of years ago. wrote about another bio-tech company that went up 1500% in a short period, and predicted that AMPE could beat that record. The more I think about it (and unfortunately, the more the share price drops), the more convinced I am that this is not a fantasy. For this to be a $5B market cap company is not a stretch. With 9M+ shares short, this could well be one for the record books. Business school students will read about this.
It will be fun to watch this play out. (I just need to stop playing it out in my mind and get to sleep!) And I know the recent group of posters will chime in with their usual BS.... but so be it.
This well executed timing of an announcement could theoretically start a stampede of buying that could add another doubling in the first minutes of trade. I have seen this unfold in real time, with HALO, ICPT etc. If management hates the shorts like we do maybe they could help us long time longs to drive the steak into the hearts of the shorts just with a good strategy to bring forth the anticipated news, this all potentially unfolds next week or perhaps the following week. Several different headlines substantiated with an concurrent analyst report and then in hours the stock rockets to sustained valuations based on roughly 12 days to cover for the shorts.
I won't be selling my shares anyway but this will be awesome to watch.
Citi through it's senior biotech analyst published an Ampio research update today.
The price target of $21 pps is reiterated based on multiple of sales valuation along with the statement that these sales assumptions could prove conservative with additional updates over the course of 2014.
The report is entitled: Alert: Another Regulatory Win-Hard to Ignore Much Longer
The front page is as follows:
Ampio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPE)
Alert: Another Regulatory Win - Hard to Ignore Much Longer
Conclusion(s) – We continue to be buyers of AMPE, seeing key regulatory boxes
to be checked for their potential blockbuster Arthritis drug Ampion. We believe
today's favorable FDA update on Ampion manufacturing only solidifies the favorable
regulatory feedback to date cannot be a fluke. While AMPE doesn't match the mold
of a "typical" biotech model many are used to, we continue to believe that it is a
story with meaningful near-term upside worth the time exploring. We maintain our
Biologic CMC Is Not an Easy Hurdle, but AMPE Appears to Have Nailed It – We
believe the FDA comfort to work out details of approving the company’s new
manufacturing plant in absence of a face to face meeting is 1) supportive of the
company’s competence in execution, and 2) optimizes Ampio’s potential BLA filing
timeline. Many time changes in biological products require a comparison trial to
show the to-be-marketed drug is similar to the investigational drug. This update
appears to suggest such a trial is unlikely for Ampion. While appearing somewhat
unprecedented, we think it is important to consider Ampion is extracted from a
pharmaceutical grade, FDA approved medical product (human serum albumin).
Next Catalysts Coming in the Near-Term – We anticipate data from the Ph3
STEP trial for Ampion in osteoarthritis of the knee in the 1H of Aug, with early
unblinded data from the multiple injection trial around the same time. The STEP
trial is important to validate the prior positive SPRING trial,
The beat down we have taken the past 3 weeks on share price upon the announcement of the freezing of the drug AMPION and the so called "failure of the STEP trial". It sucks - I get it.
Just to be clear - when any drug is stored at incorrect temps it DOES cause the drug to be less effective. For anyone here that takes Insulin - what happens if it is left at room temp for 24 hours? Do you use it? NO! You discard it. What happens to testosterone compounds that have been subjected to freezing temps? It separates and is basically ineffective.
Now here is the positive - NO PENDING CLASS ACTION LAWSUITS!!
Why?? Because the Employees at Ampio did absolutely nothing wrong.....and those snake oil Lawyers cant find a thing to file such a claim.
To me this is a good sign. A lot of people on this board slam Michael and his team. This proves to me that they are straight up and can be trusted.
Michael and team are NOT trying to hide anything, they have been very forthcoming, they unfortunately were dealt a bad hand. For those of you that have made the stupid comments that Michael KNEW the drug didn't work, so he sabotaged the STEP trial - (you know who you are) Do you realize how ignorant you sound?
Take a look at (AMRN, ICPT, CBLI, ARIA, RNA, WWE :) etc....) within days (4 max) there have been lawsuits filed.
Nothing here!! I am good. I can sleep at night.
Longs or new investors to AMPE do NOT get fooled or suckered by the cowards on this board who want you tell sell - for them to prosper.
hold on to your shares!
Have a great weekend all
Just an observation on historical chart for AMPE. If you plot the top to bottom 10.40 to 5.07 Jan to April, then the subsequent rise to 8.67 in July. Then repeat that pattern again projecting into future, you have a bottom at 3.34 on 9/25/14 and a rise to approx 7 mid December. I note that company said news of the open label injections would be about 1 month after their 8.25.14 letter which would be approx around 25th Sept. Note the March to April bottom was rounded and took about a month to form. Thus, if this is start of bottoming process it could last a month again. Just an observation since this stock over time has repeated its chart pattern both up and down. I've been in and out several times over years. Good luck long or short. I'm on long side now.
Thanks to everyone on this board for the very informative posts.
As to the short covering, don't hold your breath, imo.
People want to post the short position on the stock. When you get that number from Nasdaq, it is the number of "borrows" that have occurred.
It says nothing about the naked shorts, and one poster said that the CEO lamented the naked shorters.
While I know little about drugs, etc, I know a lot about naked shorting, and the roles played by the various regulatory agencies.
In short, if there is 9M shorts reported, there could be 20 or 40M more naked shorts. They do not need to "borrow", they just short. And, if the mkt moves up, they just sell 10M more shrs. They can keep the prices down until a buyer surfaces with enough capital to absorb all the shrs they can inject into the system.
Only when that happens will the HFTs, who are the naked shorters, close out their positions.
For that reason, I don't expect a bounce of any significance, and if there was one of just 50 or 70 cents, the naked shorters would come back with more selling. They do not give up based on one company meeting.
I can't say I agree or disagree with the analysis about their drugs, I am not a scientist. But, I do know that when there are so many naked shorts in a stock, over time it must move up. If that couples with good science, all the better!
So I have a large position, and I will wait a long while for the shorts to be gone, and see where we stand at that time.
GL, and tks again.
The street's perception of AMPE is very negative.
The short interest is close to 10 million.
It's likely that tomorrow's shareholder meeting will clear up any uncertainties that have been plaguing Ampio shares. Why else would Ampio have it webcast at noon EDT.
It is likely that the smart shorts will cover today so they won't be exposed to good news this weekend.
It's also very likely that positive news may come from tomorrow's meeting. Perhaps there might even be FDA guidance for the BLA filing announced.
Then there is a long string of events that I personally believe will be very explosive for shares.
At their low for the year, shares are expecting the worst and I do not believe that is the case so I would be a very strong buyer here and hold for the long term.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
no buyers, no coverage from any investment banker that has been distributed, new news, ONLY SELLERS AND SELLERS AND SELLERS AND SELLERS.
Perhaps this company is a reuse.
Great short here before it collapse on bad news
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I read this board on a regular basis, but have never commented. I hold a large position in AMPE, so I follow this and other boards closely. Your constant negativity compelled me to login and reply. Would you seriously quit whining? You sound like an amateur. If you're that worried, then sell your position and quit following the stock. I have been in this stock for years. If I had the attitude that you have, I would have lost my mind by now. This stock has acted the same way for years. This behavior is not anything new and is not linked to bad news being leaked. It is an easily manipulated stock. What don't you get about that? You either believe in the science or you don't. If you do, then shut up and sit tight for a few months. If you don't, then still shut up, but sell your position and leave the board.