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Ampio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    AMPE status- High flyer or dead duck?

    by honeymoonerz Jan 29, 2016 8:44 PM

    HM, Your spot on but more than that ampion works. with excess of 1000 patients and no side effects this is a winner. This stock is very well positioned to pay off big time. They know more about this drug than anyone here can even suspect. I have little doubt the patient selection will put them in an excellent position to blow up. 80 pct of patents already injected, 100 patients already through the study, looks like no adverse events, brother I am rolling up the sleeves and getting ready for the BIG LONG.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Extreamly bullish call option buying and increased trading volume signaling a move higher . OAK is 3B market with KL4, 5B now addin with Hand wich is larger than Knee and value increases exponentially. Pivot has more the enough patients enrolled to cover drop out. The company has never been this close and as soon as trial is completed I imagine they will ask for priority review for FDA approval. AMPION is ready for production at Ampio's facility as the company has gone through all the steps to mass produce Ampion saving 2 to 3 years . The table is set.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hey Shorts. You have checked in, but You can't get out. It's showtime!

  • Pivot Trial nearing full enrollment. Tight controls and careful patient selection will drive success. 4 appraisals on estimated 5 Billion $ market. No drug has treated KL4 patients. No drug can do what Ampion can therefore will capture large share of OAK Market. Its all coming together don't miss the opportunity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Looks like Ampe is finally headed in the right direction. The competition BW has brought forward seems to be floundering a bit especially in KL4/KL3. Clearly there will be more complete treatments in the future with stem cell but it's many yrs away and as BW has stated, reducing inflammation with Ampion may be a pre-treatment to those. We're hearing a lot of discussion on other indications for Ampion. Lots of speculation on a total sale and or BP partnership. We have numbers like $60 out there which I have voiced is not realistic IMHO. I realize I wear long AMPIO lenses but I'm seeing a pretty interesting opportunity happening. Thoughts? (intelligent ones preferred and luckily Roger Rabbit has blocked me so our chances for an intelligent discussion are high.

  • Reply to

    Welcome to Hotel California

    by naples4sun Apr 14, 2016 6:13 PM

    6,563,114 short shares outstanding. Why didn't the morons cover when it was high $1 or low $2's? It won't see those levels again.

  • 1) $16M in cash with a burn rate of $900k/month and the last FDA guided trial well under way. 18 months of funding with the do or die results due in 3 to 5 months.
    2) Ampion value determined to be in the Billions by 4 different independent assessors.
    3) Production facility built, FDA approved and ready to go with stock in hand and guaranteed. Very rare to never is a biotech with a drug in trial in this position.
    4) Revenue producing from day 2 of FDA green light
    5) Optina showing some promise although I would agree this is not a hat hanger.

    Rubberman, Roger Rabbit, Bill W and the rest of the shorts and the longs, we can talk all we want. We can banter back and forth. It comes down to the phase 3 trial. As Bill has stated, this is a high flyer or dead duck. what's your bet? You either get paid by the MM's to short bash or you are betting long.

    Based on the controlled trial, previous results in not so controlled trials, the fact the FDA would even bother to give them the guidance they have, the valuations on it, previous results, the $10M FDA approved facility up and running.... I'm betting on the high flyer. To each his own.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Call Option buying extremely bullish. Daily Volume now double reflects increased setiment of investors. Huge upside. Upon a successfull trial Factory will be ready to go with 30-40M of Ampion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    AMPE status- High flyer or dead duck?

    by honeymoonerz Jan 29, 2016 8:44 PM

    Actually, it's $900K/mth without clinical trial cost. So, no it's not 18 mths. They did state they are funding "into 2017".

    These are all the positive points. I focus on highlighting the high risks since few others do. Any smart investor balances the risk/reward. Big risks include

    1) 2 consecutive Phase 3 failures
    2) A very poorly designed and expensive Phase 2 (STRUT)
    3) 1/3 of patients in current trial that will not react better to Ampion than Saline, using Ampio's own clinical data.
    4) Several products of equal or better potency near approval.

    Was it "independent" appraisers or "paid"? What exactly was stated in the CC?

    Another positive point are smart money investors ACT and Knoll

  • Reply to

    Ampion- thoughts?

    by honeymoonerz Mar 29, 2016 10:24 PM

    My thoughts BUY as I did. Everything is coming together and the story is compelling. Dr's and patient have both validated the drug works. No other drug is treating the KL4 market. Why wouldnt the FDA approve as fast as posible. Appraisals have been done and the company will be sold from my understanding with no further dilution. It's ready for take off.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    AMPE status- High flyer or dead duck?

    by honeymoonerz Jan 29, 2016 8:44 PM

    I think you're right. I just wanted to get a good productive discussion going and BW jumped in with very good counter points to make it a balanced and productive discussion. What I think and what you think are why we bet our money on them and the shorts bet on us to be wrong. I thought I heard there were 4 valuations done by different appraisers. Is that not true? I can't help but think the valuation is being done as part of due diligence from either a partner or suitor. Why else would a valuation be done and if I heard correctly on 4, there would only be that many done when negotiating a sale or buy in. If I want my house appraised because I just want to know, I would get 1 MAYBE 2 done, I certainly wouldn't get 4 done. If a buyer said they will buy but I need 4 appraisals than I would go get those. Is it different in drug world? I think Ampio's speed to market will be a big deal as it relates to their value. They will be able to make product on the next day while others could take a yr. So even if the 2 BW mentioned come to market, they will be behind and Ampion will most likely be the standard. I also agree these guys know their stuff about this space and their drug. I just wish they had learned how to do trials properly with more control before the 3rd phase 3 :).... I think the FDA guidance, controlled trial, cash in hand to get there, speed to market, previous successful trials is the horse to ride. I also think the AYTU move was a cleanup move. They'll sell this off and go work that one as their next gig.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Competition - Hydros-TA failure

    by billwilliams836 Feb 2, 2016 12:03 PM

    This is a good news for AMPIO! Go AMPE!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ampe Ready to Climb

    by biobuysell2020 Mar 22, 2016 2:01 PM

    "Exciting times for ampe long term holders" we heared it many times.

  • Reply to

    Ampe Ready to Climb

    by biobuysell2020 Mar 22, 2016 2:01 PM

    Otherwise we heared from honeybears, rcavalli, agenew etc. 100$, 40$, 20$, 15$ and optina sell and new factory on the moon, and etc etc etc and we heared a huge short attack because of aytu etc etc etc.

  • Reply to

    AMPE Completes Enrollment in Pivot trial

    by biobuysell2020 Mar 29, 2016 1:10 PM

    What is the $%^^& are you talking about. The number set by the FDA was 484 and the FDA then reduced it. AMPE enrolled 480. That gives then a cushion of 16 patients if some drop out. No prediction of the outcome, but your post is showing a lack of reading skills.

  • CBYL stock collapsed yesterday on Phase III OAK failure to meet both endpoints for Hydros-TA (a HA/CS combo). The 2nd endpoint was to beat the CS alone at 26 wks. But, the control arm did better than expected (sound familiar?):
    "patients who received the corticosteroid triamcinolone acetonide, or TA, showed a prolonged pain-reduction through 26 weeks, which was unexpected based on clinical experience and published literature. "

    What is also surprising is that Hydros-TA is the same HA/CS concept as Cingal (even the same API), which had excellent Phase 3 results, is approved in Canada and currently under FDA review:

    Apr 2015: Cingal(ANIK) "met the primary endpoint by demonstrating superiority over saline for the change in WOMAC Pain Score over baseline levels through 12 weeks after treatment in the Intent to Treat (ITT) population (-40.2 mm vs. -31.0 mm, p=0.01). The benefits proved long lasting as Cingal delivered a 72% improvement (-42.4 mm, p=0.01) in WOMAC Pain Score relative to baseline at 26 weeks after injection." Also, *all* secondary endpoints were met, substantiating the benefit.

    So, along with the statistical fluke in Zilretta's last trial it is another example of how unexpected problems cause trial failure. The failures such as seen in STEP and STRIDE are not uncommon. Leerink (a specialist biotech investment house) downgraded CBYL to less than $2 from $15. They show $60M cash as of Dec 31, so are in a position to repeat the trial. Clearly, AMPE does not should PIVOT fail.

  • Reply to

    AMPE on the move

    by gkopp60610 Apr 6, 2016 2:01 PM

    Up 40% in 5 days. The haters are wondering what to do with their short shares. Only gonna get worse boys. Clearly news is leaking to buyers. Hand indication coming next. Than the sale.

  • Reply to

    AMPE opportunity of a life time.

    by biobuysell2020 Mar 22, 2016 8:25 PM

    My ynderstanding Based on a 5B market opportunity the valuations on AMPE are anywhere from$ 35 to $65 pershare. A deal will get done and Manufacturing is ready to go.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ampio Announces 2016 Corporate Update

    by pironio68 Jan 25, 2016 1:58 PM

    " and of course the shorts are to blame." not likely. Short interest is only 14% of float, has decreased by 400K shares in the past month, has available shares(45K today per Interactive Brokers), is not on SHO lists. Shorts are benefitting from AMPE's failures not causing them.

    'appraisals with 3 commas'. as in but,but,but,but?

    Putting your money with scammsters will make them wealthy and you not.

  • Reply to

    Flexion on the moon

    by safetyman41 Feb 16, 2016 11:54 PM

    " AMPE paid for appraisals at some point. "
    Probably was MM and Cliffy over martinis.

    What do you think we can get away with as potential value?

    $10 million ?

    You're such a piker, $100 million.

    Oh yeah, $500 million.

    $800 million.

    One BILLION DOLLARS!

    Nobody'll believe that.It's too round. $1.4658 BILLION.

    Agreed.

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