I have spent several hours going over and over the past couple news releases covering the temperature mishap, Management QA, going forward plans etc. Hell, I even went over old NRs from 2011 just to make sure I am not missing anything.
I dont get it? The story hasn't changed! I know many sold due to that slime ball AFs comments. To me - he crossed a line and needs to be put in his place. He has done the same thing to many other biotechs. It is evident he has an agenda. Why sell? Look what he did to NWBO. You have to respect AMPEs management team for not responding and stooping to that rats level.
Alot of you here also sold because of the low life #$%$ on here slamming the company. Again, it is very clear the shorts have an agenda and will continue to drive the AMPE share price down as low as possible. Why sell into them?
The freezing/temperature issue was completely out of Ampios control. They did the right thing by notifing us, the patients and FDA. #$%$ happens.
We KNOW the drug works. So big deal if we have to wait another five months. I agree it sucks to watch the SP take a beating every day, but it will recover. I am not worried. I see no reason Ampio will not get BLA by early next year. They are taking the right steps to ensure this happens.
To the cowards hiding behind your keyboard slamming the CEO and mangement team at AMPE - be carefull. What you are posting is defamation and slander. All it is going to take is someone (like me) to report the posts and if Ampio's team want to pursue legal action, YAHOO is legally responsible to provide IP addresses and other contact info they have. If you think I am joking.....Google: Stockhouse Board Posters Sued.
As a shareholder it is my responsibility to protect my investment and I will do so. So you little slime balls....keep slamming the CEO and management team. I dare you.
The share price may drift down, and alot of you may sell but it is your own fault. No one else!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I have almost never gotten involved in the immature drivel and personal arguments on this board. In this instance I find it so very unfortunate that such a strong and long time supporter of AMPE (ri66) has shown himself to so small minded, bigoted and ignorant. I hope this doesn't reflect poorly on the truly intelligent and open minded AMPE supporters. One cannot hope to change a closed mind, but can only hope that others that bear witness to its limitations and distorted views act and respond in such a way that reflects it's impropriety... in this or any other forum.
the numbers of total knee arthroplasties performed in the US are upwards of 800,000 and growing. Payment is generally by government backed insurance.This a large and and growing financial burden. The science behind Ampions main ingredient human albumin and its biologic anti inflammatory activity is already known. (Google it! ) This novel approach to the conservative management of osteoarthritis will manage symptoms delaying entry into the operating room,and will be accepted by the FDA if solely for its money saving potential.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Haven't seen you post here before, but you speak wise words, come back and help others and me in particular keep the story straight. Thank you.
yesterday's ambivalent doji candlestick was out muscled today with a bullish candle, a significant feat since the dji & spx suffered a multi year beating...the 3ema crossed the 8ema to the upside, a near term bullish sign....also, six week resistance was taken out on volume much higher than normal...the important 20sma was penetrated to the upside too...the closing price of 3.96 matched the Oct 2 and 3 high, which it must exceed to continue the run-up...4.47, the 50sma, may be minor resistance....secondary oscillators support the upward move
Just an observation on historical chart for AMPE. If you plot the top to bottom 10.40 to 5.07 Jan to April, then the subsequent rise to 8.67 in July. Then repeat that pattern again projecting into future, you have a bottom at 3.34 on 9/25/14 and a rise to approx 7 mid December. I note that company said news of the open label injections would be about 1 month after their 8.25.14 letter which would be approx around 25th Sept. Note the March to April bottom was rounded and took about a month to form. Thus, if this is start of bottoming process it could last a month again. Just an observation since this stock over time has repeated its chart pattern both up and down. I've been in and out several times over years. Good luck long or short. I'm on long side now.
I've been up for more than half the night after the shareholder meeting. Its been a combination of frustration and impatience, and uncontrollable excitement. In over 40 years of business, I have never, ever, seen the prospect of this kind of short squeeze. It is truly one of biblical proportions when one considers what is sure to be on the horizon for AMPE. Ups and downs, goof ups, acts of G-d, whatever. There is very, very little doubt that what they have, is one of the most valuable new drugs and discoveries in a long time. And frankly, OA (knee or otherwise) is only a minor, first step, subset of the many wonders of Ampion. And i shudder to even think about the added value of the much maligned Optina, as well as the unspoken quiet giant of NCE001 for cancer (David Bar-Or is nothing if not prolific in his scientific discoveries).
Someone, a couple of years ago. wrote about another bio-tech company that went up 1500% in a short period, and predicted that AMPE could beat that record. The more I think about it (and unfortunately, the more the share price drops), the more convinced I am that this is not a fantasy. For this to be a $5B market cap company is not a stretch. With 9M+ shares short, this could well be one for the record books. Business school students will read about this.
It will be fun to watch this play out. (I just need to stop playing it out in my mind and get to sleep!) And I know the recent group of posters will chime in with their usual BS.... but so be it.
The beat down we have taken the past 3 weeks on share price upon the announcement of the freezing of the drug AMPION and the so called "failure of the STEP trial". It sucks - I get it.
Just to be clear - when any drug is stored at incorrect temps it DOES cause the drug to be less effective. For anyone here that takes Insulin - what happens if it is left at room temp for 24 hours? Do you use it? NO! You discard it. What happens to testosterone compounds that have been subjected to freezing temps? It separates and is basically ineffective.
Now here is the positive - NO PENDING CLASS ACTION LAWSUITS!!
Why?? Because the Employees at Ampio did absolutely nothing wrong.....and those snake oil Lawyers cant find a thing to file such a claim.
To me this is a good sign. A lot of people on this board slam Michael and his team. This proves to me that they are straight up and can be trusted.
Michael and team are NOT trying to hide anything, they have been very forthcoming, they unfortunately were dealt a bad hand. For those of you that have made the stupid comments that Michael KNEW the drug didn't work, so he sabotaged the STEP trial - (you know who you are) Do you realize how ignorant you sound?
Take a look at (AMRN, ICPT, CBLI, ARIA, RNA, WWE :) etc....) within days (4 max) there have been lawsuits filed.
Nothing here!! I am good. I can sleep at night.
Longs or new investors to AMPE do NOT get fooled or suckered by the cowards on this board who want you tell sell - for them to prosper.
hold on to your shares!
Have a great weekend all
The following calculation is an estimate, the data is from the media and company publications.
1. Cash $60 million.
2. Property Plant and Equipment $10 million.
3. Ampion™ drug value *$300 million. Present Market Size $2.5 Billion.
4. Optina™ drug value *$150 million. Present Market Size $1.2 Billion. On 2018 Market Size $2.5 Billion.
Ampio Subsidiaries assets value.
1. Vyrix $150 million. IPO during the 2nd half of 2014.
2. Luoxis $60 million.
Total assets value: $730 million.
Present Market cap. $202 million.
Conclusions : There is a huge undervalue from the above calculation, fair value for share is $14.
Present upside 361%
* Modest and minimal estimate, some analysts estimate both drugs value around $1 billion.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Most reported dates are still as of 6/30 or so, but a few of the 91 institutional AMPE holders have reported their positions as of 9/30 (aka post STEP trial snafu). Of those that have reported it looks like almost all have retained or increased their positions. Barclays most notably, they increased by about 18% (260k shares). I'll be keeping an eye over the next few days to see who is still in this pig. All 13-Fs should be reported by 11/14.
Thanks to everyone on this board for the very informative posts.
As to the short covering, don't hold your breath, imo.
People want to post the short position on the stock. When you get that number from Nasdaq, it is the number of "borrows" that have occurred.
It says nothing about the naked shorts, and one poster said that the CEO lamented the naked shorters.
While I know little about drugs, etc, I know a lot about naked shorting, and the roles played by the various regulatory agencies.
In short, if there is 9M shorts reported, there could be 20 or 40M more naked shorts. They do not need to "borrow", they just short. And, if the mkt moves up, they just sell 10M more shrs. They can keep the prices down until a buyer surfaces with enough capital to absorb all the shrs they can inject into the system.
Only when that happens will the HFTs, who are the naked shorters, close out their positions.
For that reason, I don't expect a bounce of any significance, and if there was one of just 50 or 70 cents, the naked shorters would come back with more selling. They do not give up based on one company meeting.
I can't say I agree or disagree with the analysis about their drugs, I am not a scientist. But, I do know that when there are so many naked shorts in a stock, over time it must move up. If that couples with good science, all the better!
So I have a large position, and I will wait a long while for the shorts to be gone, and see where we stand at that time.
GL, and tks again.
The street's perception of AMPE is very negative.
The short interest is close to 10 million.
It's likely that tomorrow's shareholder meeting will clear up any uncertainties that have been plaguing Ampio shares. Why else would Ampio have it webcast at noon EDT.
It is likely that the smart shorts will cover today so they won't be exposed to good news this weekend.
It's also very likely that positive news may come from tomorrow's meeting. Perhaps there might even be FDA guidance for the BLA filing announced.
Then there is a long string of events that I personally believe will be very explosive for shares.
At their low for the year, shares are expecting the worst and I do not believe that is the case so I would be a very strong buyer here and hold for the long term.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The quality of the discussion on this board or the PPS but I fear we are starting to drown in our own BS. GLTA. I am holding onto what I have and buying more from time to time
From the various PRs, a list of what we can expect - dates are clearly just estimates. There may be intervening PRs should FDA decisions be made regarding data releases, etc.
Significant Event Calendar:
1) STEP Results: "likely, within several weeks" (mid-Sept)
2) Open Label MI 12 wk data (MRI's): "1 month" (Sept 30)
3) Optina Results: 1 month? (Sept 30)
"pending the completion of the 12 weeks period for several patients...request the FDA allow us to unmask the trial"
4) MI Enrollment Completion (N=300): "several months" (Dec 1)
To simplify the simple statistics further for those that need it: the AF article made false conclusions not supported by the data. The only data that matter (scientifically acceptable) were those released by the statistician.
As this is public, all can be certain that those are also the data and conclusions that the FDA cares about: there was a beneficial effect at 20 wks for the most severe KL4 patients above what saline can provide, even at lower than expected doses.