Mostly rhetorical on my part. However, I always like checking for information that I may have missed or misinterpreted.
SC are still a few years away but do erode value, as does the recent success of Zilretta and weak balance sheet. If PIVOT is at least as successful as SPRING (assuming that is what the SPA states as minimum requirements) it seems likely AMPE will easily be at it old highs.
bill, I've been following FLXN in order to gauge a ballpark valuation for AMPE. Granted there are differences, but the price of FLXN is at a 76% discount to the $34 price target that was indicated a few weeks ago. Biotechs and pharma, as measured by IBB and XPH, have been severely lagging on the upside. What is Mr. Market telling us?
good point. FLXN will have NDA prep and PDUFA fees, but haven't followed the finances. They have some BIG major shareholders, even with Pfizer reducing their position.
Ampio will have almost have to dilute or take on debt, assuming that PIVOT even works. FLXN commands a greater value because of clinical success so comparing cash positions vs market value may not be the most appropriate measure.
They must be having real issues recruiting the last remaining patients. If enrollment fills by next week, we are looking at mid-June for earliest readout.
True, I believe AMPE's non-clinical trial burn rate was last indicated at LT $1MM per month, but my response to safetyman was regarding FLXN's cash position.
with all the different co's working on this and ampe in their do or die last breaths of life seems like odds are
against us - the real killer will be the stem cells and they're coming very soon - glta
fyi, I believe FLXN cash per share was ~$5.17, as of 12/31. $6.14 was the 9/30 number. Will they burn another buck a share this qtr.?
Flexion cash per share 6,14$, the share price is 7,6
Ampion cash per share ~ 0,2$ the share price is 2,07 (dilution can be any time)
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Interesting perspective. Love it... I'm not as bullish on the 20-30 but I certainly do hope you're right. My wife always says I'm wrong so it's very possible I guess :)...
Nothing can be done until successful trial. IF there are a few small trials on other indications with ampion, I think this increases the value and once it passes the threshold(trial) I feel 20-30 a share is reasonable. The nice thing they have is the 12yr patent protection, the lab and product and that puts them in a much stronger position value wise. It is a turn key for a pharma company. I am sure everyone involved is ready to get this done. No doubt there will be suitors for ampion and the company. They are lean as well so lets hope we can get this enrollment over with by april and then the clock starts ticking. I am not sure if we will go on the same trajectory as the last 3 times. Not the same volume we had before at same time so expect that trading wise we get small bounce. When the trial succeeds you will see a more steady increase as investors will feel more confident and anticipation of a sale will drive the price. could be one hell of a summer.
Anika has a good summary of the competitive arena in latest 10K. Wish AMPE did as much with their 10K's.
"In addition to marketed IA medications for OA, other companies have OA product candidates in advanced stages of clinical development. These IA products include:
Anika Therapeutics, Inc.’s Cingal, which is a mixture of Anika’s Monovisc and a low dose of a commonly used immediate-release steroid. Anika filed a Pre-Market Application with the FDA for Cingal based on a single pivotal clinical trial. In December 2015, Anika announced that due to the steroid component of the product, it will need to file this product candidate under an NDA.
Carbylan Therapeutic’s Hydros-TA, which is a mixture of Carbylan’s own HA and a low dose of a commonly used immediate release steroid. In February 2016, Carbylan announced that Hydros-TA met only one of its two primary endpoints in its first Phase 3 study.
Actavis plc/Hanmi Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd.’s HA product Hyalrheuma, which is an HA preparation.
TissueGene, Inc.’s Invossa which is a combination of human allogeneic chondrocytes and TGF-b1 transfected allogeneic chondrocytes. Invossa is currently in Phase 3 clinical studies
Ampio Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s Ampio, which is a derivative of human serum albumin, is described as having anti-inflammatory properties, and is formulated for immediate-release. Ampion is currently in Phase 3 clinical trials."
This is the question of the day. This is where I'm getting nervous as well. I think it does a little more than squeek by but I'd take a squeeker. As I watch other biotechs that succeed in Phase 3, some fly high but most rise a bit. Lots of dependencies there of course. So the question is, would a squeeker drive the price up by itself or do they announce a squeeker with a buyer? And if it's a buyer than we're talking about an asset sale vs a stock price. What's the asset worth with relation to current stock and production capability and market penetration. I personally think they are headed after the sale with announcement. MM said he just had ampion valued again and it was higher than last time. So why did he get a value for Ampion and not Ampio? Well Optina isn't in it is the first thing to infer. But more importantly he is getting a valuation for a sale. He has to be. I just struggle to believe that's significantly above the 52 week high. I think it will be below the 52 wk high but not too far below it. Of course, just my opinion (and hope)..
BW, i am banking on a squeeker but they get it done and I think the tight controls that were not followed in other trials will pave the way. I anticipate that this trial will conclude the end of april with results 8/1