Thanks Allen. So, it was Q2 13F and not Q3? Buying into the decline due to STRIDE failure says something. Talkot has a good reputation for small biotech investing. At one point, they held a much larger position and Akin himself also had a large position. The largest hedge fund holder, Knoll, also is an experienced biotech investor and has held firm in the top ~3 non-index holders.
BW i was observing Susquehana's moves. It appears that they increased not decreased and they are known for doing extensive DD.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Do you have a source for that? There are no updated 13F's for the last Q filed that I could find on WhaleWisdom. Q2 vs Q1 was a drop of 21%. Susquehana and Noven added among the majors. The Penn Public School Retirement fund added, but they only had 87K shares as of Q2. BlackRock, StateStreet, GreatPoint Inv (Put) , EAM, BlackRock Inst, Talkot, Susquenhana(Call) all sold significant (more than 100Kshares) positions.
That's funny right there. Roger rabbit is looking for his hole to jump down. Any day now the Optina disposition will be announced as will the JV/Partnership for Ampion. Those trips to Europe were not for vacation.
Those numbers are absolutely meaningless. Most likely hedging with current position or playing a swing. Pay attention to Volume and SP. There are more interesting observation that I look at. There is an interesting move from a billion dollar investment firm out of Philly that increased their position recently in AMPE along with a few others.
"You have questions..... Macaluso has your answers" Wasn't he the guy you were saying lied to you when this tanked after a flubbed trial.Now he has all the answers. Your back to recycling old BS. Then again you never had anything original to say.
The whole Biotech sector has been taking a beating. The only safe bet is if your invested in it is to get out. Your stock picks tend to get hammered loser.After what you have lost on AMPE and then on KERX, by now you don't even have coffee money and plunging Toilets for a living probably doesn't pay much.so your opinion on anything is worth about as much as the shet you pull from plugged toilets
In the October options someone someone hedging on the put side 150 Oct 3 puts traded today at .40 and 95 October 2 puts at .05. On the call side 100 Jan 2.5 calls traded at .92
The risk reward on this is why many of us remained. We already took the hit and appear to be moving back gently upwards. The PPS has already taken the hit and the return multiple is significant. High risk and very high potential reward on this venture.
As you have stated, potential partner and clinical design, let's hope they have outside design support this time around. With MM's comment about was in negotiations and then now restructure entire game, I feel that they are not running this one by themselves.
I share most of those sentiments. I'd feel better if I knew how the T-cell assay QC correlated with clinical effectiveness and what the current batch assays at. Bar Or's articles stated a wide variance, and of course there are multiple components in Ampion besides DA-DKP. The yellow flag was MM's comments about different batches possibly having different potencies, though he was quick to point out he "wasn't saying that was a factor". Also, how confident are they with the patient and site selection (since they couldn't find any meaningful reason why saline performed so well in STRIDE)?
Still, they know all this and, while not releasing the details, are certainly paying more attention. Hopefully, a potential partner has voiced their opinions about how to structure the trial. They needed better development expertise. FLXN's recent failure due to nothing more than a high dropout rate in the Saline arm show how difficult it is to beat an active placebo. Including high-risk KL4s and non-differentiating KL2's adds to the challenge.
But risk/reward is good, many analysts are saying the sector is a value again.
BW, I made a killing on PCYC when it was at 5, HALO is another favorite of mine. Dont like short term trading but when you look at historic charts ref biotech the fall isnt pretty but the spring is. The sector will be fine and I am not even at a M&A stage with AMPE. It is about execution and results. I am happy to see the company be very thorough than any other study this go around. Remember this is the first time their lab will produce their product and that is good from a QC stand point but also poses risks due to not conducting a study before. Be a perfect scenario to manufacturer drug and then complete a successful study. Validates Expensive Lab and Study. That will make it very attractive as we move forward. I was never concerned after the studies because of the data it presents. once it passed the sniff test it was a matter of execution. VC is an obvious rookie and frankly the company was new at this so you have to expect mistakes. IF they dont have it together by now the company is doomed. Looks like an excellent risk reward benefit.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yes, unfortunately it's rarely rational. The main factor is still NPV based on future expected revenue. The multiple someone is willing to pay still has a risk component.
There is a summary of banker sentiment & biotech outlook on a CNBC clip "Gilead, a favorite pick". I don't give much credence to views from the various hosts, etc., but industry and banking survey reports are useful. This mania will pass and long term growth prospects are good. I still recall the whack the industry got when Bill Clinton first took office.