Despite fieldman's negativity, I see that Bruce Simberg, director, has spent around $160,000 in August purchasing lots of shares. As the saying goes, there are many reasons for insiders to sell shares (to buy a new car, new home, help with child's university tuition, etc) but there is only one reason why an insider would buy: he has good reason to believe that the share price is undervalued and will go up. Period. So I am quite hopeful that these $21-22 levels is a new base...and that the PPS will be going up. Historically a 20-30% price increase from these levels is very possible. Perhaps in connection with the next quarter report. -scott
Another good move. Very strategic by the management of this company. PPS should be closer to $25 than $22 in my opinion, but this divvy move could help it along. Strong buy. Disagree strongly with fieldman's postings.... he seems to be a newbie to this company. -Scott
Up 3% today, the day after the 25% divvy increase was announced. Nice. Hopefully on our way to $24/25 where it should have been.
Fieldman....you fears about hurricanes seem to be misplaced. Danny did no or little damage. And now less than 60 days to go in the current hurricane season. Meanwhile, FNHC ups its divvy by 25% and the stock is in an upswing. Company has excellent management, which seems conservative and they have not over-promised in the past years. FNHC could easily hit $26 by end of year, given past history.
I'm probably more closely tied to this company than you may realize, and have been for quite a while. The divvy increase is definitely in the right direction, but that is about all. Jury is still out on the C&D from regulators. Big fine could be damaging, but more importantly very revealing about their internal management as the company has a history of using unapproved rates as revealed in past market conduct examinations by the regulators.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The company's management is mediocre at best, I know the entire team personally. And yes, Danny did fizzle as did Erika and Fred. The management has a short memory about the 2004/2005 season. They've gone from having 4 event coverage to only one reinstatement on their reinsurance. To give you a hypothetical example, lets just say that Danny had gone into Louisiana as CAT 2, Erika comes into the Gulf and hits Florida panhandle as CAT 3 then Fred hits tri-county as CAT 4. After Danny, Braun is running around trying to buy another reinstatement on the reinsurance while Erika is beating up the panhandle. Reinsurers are smiling at Braun because they see opportunity to recoup some of their losses they just paid out; or they decide to wait until Fred comes ashore because Fred is at Puerto Rico; Fred strikes tri-county at CAT 4; with no reinstatement its RIP FNHC. Nobody regulates reinsurance costs, its whatever the market will bare. With only one pre-paid reinstatement, that's like drunk driving, you hope a cop doesn't see you and you might make it home safely, and you might not.
While the above scenario is hypothetical, it could happen but it would only be devastating to FNHC if the events occurred within certain timeframes; like 72 hour lapses between events, not sure what their period is.
They may make another season without a reinsurance claim and that's money in the bank. But they still gotta deal with the OIR.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Fair enough, fieldman. You've shared enough to make me take you more seriously. I had wondered if you were just a basher, short-seller. Still almost impossible to know anyone's bias either pro or con a company, based on message boards. I must say that the PPS action in the past few months has been troubling me, given everything I expected. Then again, the whole market has been nervous and on a downswing. FHNC is caught up in some of that, also. But I do really like how management on some level appears to be level-headed, not over-reacting, not rash, not even signalling the divvy increase--when they could have been tooting that horn loudly. So, overall, I have confidence in them. And the stats all look good to me: P/E, PEG, P/B, ROE, etc. -Scott
Yes, he did. However, he is no longer a Director of the company as he immediately and abruptly resigned as Director March 4, 2015, just six months before his term would expire. Being the largest single stockholder, he has sense enough to buy the stock at $21 instead of $36. I think the closer the market price is to BV, the better buy it is due to the company putting the earnings into surplus, which will increase BV, as they certainly don’t pay dividend worth mentioning. I think the stock is trading about what its worth right now, largely due to the internal dynamics of the company and the management’s interest in sending money out the door to reinsurers for quota-share coverage and letting others use the paper to make real money and kicking the change to FNHC.
I guess they are still reporting Simberg to the SEC because he is the largest single stockholder and still does legal work for the company.
Not to be overly negative, the stock is at a fair price right now. I just thing UVE and HRTG are better investments, that’s all.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Very, very interesting moves in PPS lately. Take a look back one year ago. PPS went as low as $21.47, only to spike up to $35 at the end of October. It didn't hold that, of course, but it hit it.
Here we are, one year later. Very similar pricing action. Low point in 2015 thus far was...guess what? $21 on August 24. Now, in early October, is hitting $25. By the end of this month, my guess is that it will hit $30, potentially even up to $32-35. And it probably will drop back down.
So, if you have picked up shares of FNHC near its low point at the end of August, you could quite easily be seeing a gain of $8-11 per share. 50% gain in just a few months. Wow. As for me, I am more of a long term holder. But the pricing action of these shares makes me want to be more of a trader. Especially on a small company like FNHC.
It seems like a fairly predictable way to make money, each year, just in time for buying Christmas gifts...or to take a nice winter vacation to a warm place. -Scott
At the close of October 9, FNHC is at $26.12 and UVE is at $33.25. Analysts' earnings estimate for 3q for FNHC is $0.80 vs $0.69 for UVE. Rational or irrational? IMHO,volume and beta tells the story. If and when active traders get interested in trading our stocks, our shares may trade on par or exceed UVE's market price.
Next few weeks should unveil our near term fate. Good Luck.
I am curious what your source is for 3q analyst estimates. Yahoo has 29 cents for FNHC and 57 cents for UVE.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm a TDAmeriTrade customer. The concensus analyst's estimate shown there is what I posted before. BTW, the trailing 12 months EPS is also in favor of FNHC vs. UVE. I think the 12 months fprward projected EPS is quite a bit higher for FNHC than UVE, hence, a higher analysts 12 months high target for FNHC.
Best of luck.
Janney upgraded this morning to a buy! But your estimates are wrong, and I just checked my TDA estimate and it agrees with yahoo....they are estimating .29/share in the third quarter, and UVE is at .57. You are looking at q2.
your wrong huahua...not sure what your looking at, but I'm looking at TDA now, and the estimates are what I said before.....the same they are on every single outlet, including yahoo. You should check again, b/c you are definitely wrong. BTW, they did make .60 in q1 and .80 in q2, I think thats must me where your error is. But all outlets have them at a .29/share estimate for q3.
You can repeat what you see, but either what you are looking at is wrong, or you just made a simple mistake.
If you are a client of TDAmeritrade and use their site for trading. You'll find there is an additional headline news under Events and it states 10/28/15 Q3 Federated National Holdings Co, Earning Release- $0.80 Estimate.
This information is not on the free access site.
No reason to dwell on this because it is factual.
YOU ARE WRONG!!!!...I am a premier client of TDA with over $2 million bucks there in my investment account. I use Think or Swim for trading on TDA. But, login to TDA, enter 'Research', enter 'Overview', in search bar enter 'FNHC', enter 'Earnings', enter 'Quarterly'... and voila, you get the correct earnings estimates for th third quarter....here is the cut and paste:
"Upcoming Announcement (Q3 ending 09/2015)
Q2 Non-GAAP earnings $0.80 Estimate increased in year
leading up to announcement
Q3 consensus estimate $0.29 Q3 consensus estimate is lower
than previous year"
You see, it says q2 is .80/share and the Q3 consensus estimate is 0.29/share....which is what every other source says.
You can continue to be a bore, or try to figure out what you are doing wrong.
huaua,now I see you're just a farce. Just went to TDA and used your method, going to Events, and again it states that the q3 earnings estimate is .29/share. You better call TDA and ask to have your account updated. Are you attempting to pump FNHC up with false information? It doesnt need your help.
Here is a cut and paste from TDA login, FNHC Upcoming Events:
"Upcoming Events FNHC fiscal year ends in December
OCT 28 2015
Q3 2015 Earnings Release
EPS estimate consensus
$0.07 to $0.67
Previous year's Q3 actual
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