What I know, is that this freaking thing has given up every penny it gained yesterday. Was it worth more yesterday than it is today, or for some reason unknown to us, worth less today than it was yesterday. I suspect somebody, or somebody's with a motive is jerking it around. Behind bars would be a good place for them./
Add to that thought:
Q4 2012 "8 direct sales persons, 2 marketing support" (regional sales managers?)
Q1 2013 "20 direct sales persons, 8 marketing support"
Q2 2013 "22 direct sales persons, will add 5-10 per quarter with goal of 35-40 by year end"
Q3 2013 "42 direct sales persons, goal of 60 by year end"
Presentation 2 weeks ago, in conversations with participants it was overheard---"we now have 70 sales persons and will add to that by year end."
Arun is building the pipeline for what he sees just ahead. Now add to the above that he expects these sales persons to contribute $1 million plus in revenue per person 6-9 months after hire. Sounds like additional revenue from Pinpoint and Luna of $20 million/ quarter by Q3 2014. That puts the company in the $0.15 positive earnings range by my modeling. I hadn't expected them to get to that until Q2 2015. I will gladly recalibrate my model. (:-)
What we know.
Originally, the full results of the Pilar study were going to be presented at a medical convention during the 4th quarter of this year. That was subsequently changed after the results were in to publish in a major medical journal.
What we know.
The results of the preliminary study revealed zero negative events post operation.
What we know.
At a CC, Arun was questioned about the success of the full study. He responded by simply saying, do the math. The first half of the study had zero negative events, so even if the 2nd half had the normal number of events, the total number would be substantially below the norm.
At the Investor Day conference during the panel discussion, one of the doctors indicated that the pilar results could create a real dilemna for the governing bodies related to standard of care. Would they require a time consuming phase III trial if the Pilar results were outstanding. What if there were zero events totally? Given the first half results this is well within the realm of possibilty.
For myself, I am anxiously counting the days until that report is published. They have to be truly outstanding. Afterall, why else would Arun walk away from the convention presentation?
Off topic? I see ISRG and NVDQ and CRDC as linked. ISRG will need the new micro cutter technology if they are to make serious headway into the General Surgery arena. This area is the next big Domestic growth story for ISRG and without it they will just grow in the mid single digits for years. Novadaq also will be opening up areas in minimally invasive surgery that will use this new micro cutter....perhaps a significant untapped area in diabetics and when they get their cancer targeting molecules approved. Minimally invasive, both robotic and laparoscopic will need the new micro cutter and the diagnostic capability of NVDQ to push medical treatments to the next level.
Based on your inputs and those of Fish I find a similar thinking along these lines on all three of these boards. I enjoy the insights and vision expressed.
Its a sure thing. If there was a problem they would already have communicated that to CRDC or asked for further evidence. I would say it should be announced before the end of December but then this is the US Government we are dealing with so....perhaps in the 1st quarter of 2014.....15?.....16?..... That is what Applied is counting on.
I think CRDC will run out of money late 2nd quarter or early 3rd quarter. If they haven't gotten approval by then they have no visible source of cash (life blood) and will die. How sad. I still think they will make it and have increase my holdings recently.
I've been posting on the CRDC message board.
There is a concerted effort by Applied to push down the price per share...two, in succession announcements to sell 500K of their shares (~3.6 million original holdings) since the submission of the stapler-cutter 510k. Why?
If they are doing this for non-economic reasons (vendetta for Dr Hausen rejecting a low ball buyout offer?) that is possible but not likely. If they need cash the 1M shares at ~$1.10 @ seems unlikely, but when combined with tax loss of ~$2 @ that could add another ~$0.40 @ assuming 20% capital gains tax rate. Still this wouldn't move the needle for any normal institutional investor. Most likely they are trying some sort of squeeze play (my thoughts only---no actual evidence or information). If they can keep them from raising cash when they most need it (to finish the development and regulatory approval) for a potential block buster instrument, as well as limiting their ability to hire marketing staff and infrastructure needed to roll out in the US, they might force CRDC to a sweetheart deal and scoop up the company for pennies on the dollar of value. I don't think they could win in a head to head bidding war with Covidian or JNJ so this may be their best option. What are the downsides if they lose? They give up 1M shares at ~$1.10 and if CRDC succeeds and the price goes to ~$10 in 5 years, they still have 2.6M shares and forego ~$9 million gain. If they win and take the stapler-cutter in their winnings they gain a dominant entrant in the 3-4 $ Billion sealing/cutting market. At 10% net margins that could be worth over a couple billion in present value dollars. Would someone bet 0.009 to get 2.000? Some may.
Other investors will be hurt by the process. I wouldn't do it but some would.
fwiw~ I have a friend who's daughter just had a procedure done at Columbia Presbyterian hospital in NYC.
She reports that the doctors there used SPY, they're thrilled with it, and furthermore the hospital is planning on purchasing "many more" (kits).
She added that it looks "very good" for Novadaq because the smaller hospitals don't have it yet.
Claiming that this administration's "policies" (Obamacare, regulatory overreach/fines, publicly vilifying the private sector, advocating wealth redistribution instead of growth overall, and now a 2.5% tax on NVDQ's device sales) have led to the recovery is like the rooster who cockadoodles in the morning and then takes credit for making the sun rise. Yes, the debt problem is b/c of the GOP protecting tax cheats! So simple. If you don't like political stuff creeping in, than don't perpetuate it with a political rant.
Unlike the previous administration, the market has recovered under Obama.
The rise in debt wouldn't exist if the GOP wasn't working hard to block the legislatures and agreed to fund the SEC and IRS so they could enforce the laws and collect all taxes actually due.
No; some of your postings are good, but this political #$%$ doesn't belong here.
The ONLY THING that keeps going UP IS THE FEDERAL OBAMA/BIDEN DEBT Be happy NVDQ is Canadian and gradually ascending with reasons.
Nice summary. I also listened to the presentation and want to pick up on one of your comments on colorectal cancer. I think they might have let the cat out of the bag on the Pilar study. Maybe it was wishful thinking on my part, but I got the impression from comments made that the full Pilar study is going to show no leaks and it will be directly attributable to procedure changes made during some of the surgeries due to our equipment.
Bear in mind, the original gameplan was to have Arum present the results of Pilar at a conference at this time. This was then changed to having the results presented in a reputable medical Journal in the first quarter. Was this change the result of no leaks???
I listened to the presentation. Novadaq is really increasing the number of utilizations of all of its products. They are hoping to achieve standard of care with their products and so they will be doing phase III type trials. Pinpoint in colorectal surgery is showing no leaks and so some surgeons are saying that ethically they should not do clinical trials but novadaq has decided to go ahead and do a phase III trial and will start recruiting in q1 of 2014 I think the sentinel node biopsies is another area where it will likely achieve standard of care. If the endometriosis trials are as promising as suggested, this will also likely become standard of care. Finally with wound care and vascular surgery, being able to evaluate perfusion is huge in deciding further treatment options. They are also hoping to get their systems to 100 hospitals by the end of next year. Right now they are focussing on teaching hospitals.
Reducing complications and risks of complications is what Medicare and hospitals and of course surgeons are aiming for.
It is frustrating to see the stock price dwindle but I really think this company has huge potential and I think shareholders are going to be handsomely rewarded.
Sentiment: Strong Buy