I think back to Investors day November 2015 when Tom Tamburrino (VP Sales) told me that "in 365 days" i.e. (the next Investors day) that we would see results. He seemed so confident...
With all due respect, while the decline in short interest has been substantial, at 33%, it has not declined as much as you indicated. It has gone down from 7.2 million shares to 4.8 million. Given the enormous uncertainty surrounding the overall stock market recently, it is difficult to determine whether or not this downward trajectory will continue. As i have indicated in other postings, we need a strong 1st quarter to continue and possibly accelerate a reduction in short interest.
Over the past 7 months we have now had 5 moves up to the $13.75 pps only to have that move decline down to about $10. We really need to get the issues surrounding marketing behind us in order to make a sustainable move upward.
My closest friend feels the way market "Shorters" manipulate the market for NVDQ--is unfair at least and maybe beyond that. It looks a lot like someone is selling a few thousand shares, perhaps in the range of 50k to 100k during the recent low volume days and then comes in and purchases 100k-300k in large blocks at the end of the day. It seems to be working...at least for them. Endo's post indicated that the short position has dropped from ~7.5M to 3.5M shares in the last few weeks---after the pre-announcement of the $20M beating all 10 of the analysts estimates for Q4. If my gain in gross margins (60%-65% management estimates for 2015) from spreading fixed costs over higher revenue and the fact that 40% of the costs are in Canadian dollars yielding a special ~10% gross margin bump this quarter and another nice bump in Q1 from currency translation. I still see the loss at ($0.07) per share instead of the analysts average of ($0.15) per share. If management can up the forecaste from 30%-35% revenue growth in 2016 we should see ~$13@ to $14@ before Feb 19th.
So all you "Longs", hold your nose for the next few days.
i'm showing 18 companies. 3 added, 5 maintained, 10 reduced, and a net reported institutional change of +116k shares thanks to Jennison's +234k 3 month add. But as you said, small sample size.
A very limited number of Institutions have reported their exposure to the company as of 12/31/15. None of the larger exposures have reported as yet. Of the 13 who have reported, 8 reduced their positions, 4 maintained their positions and 1 increased. Given the fact that the company has already reported strong revenues for the 4th quarter, a strong 1st quarter could hopefully reverse this trend.
p.s. This is obviously a very, very tough market.
Glad to hear it's a little earlier than last year, when there were, accounting-wise, too many moving and negative parts from the Lifecell sales agreement dissolution. I see this as a positive nod to business normalcy.
These dubs have had YEARS to become profitable, & now, MAYBE 2017. What the H--- was the prediction back in Apr of 2014 when the price was $24??
The first time we can possibly get an insight into the 1st quarter is when the company has its 4th quarter CC in late February. I believe it was around 2/25 last year.
As with most regular posters here, I believe that Novadaq has been caught up in Institutions reducing their exposure across the board. We have been hit particularly hard because of continuing uncertainty related to the progress of our marketing efforts.
We had a solid 4th quarter compared to the 4th quarter of 2014. Now the company has to show that that momentum will be continued here in 2016. We had a terrible 1st quarter in 2015 which resulted in the company reducing its projected 2015 revenues. I believe 1st quarter 2016 results are absolutely critical for the company. I do not believe the market will tolerate an excuse filled poor showing in the 1st quarter, not with the salesforce fast approaching 100 salesmen.
On the other hand, a strong 1st quarter that crushes 1st quarter 2015 results will go a long way to convincing the market that the marketing effort has now taken root. We have a great product. We have little or no competition. We now have an experienced salesforce. We have no excuses now, none that will be accepted by the market. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Interesting how the street is crowded with all of these downgrades and at the same time short interest keeps dropping. As of 1/15/16 short interst declined another 534 thousand shares and now stands at 4.8 million shares. That is a sizable drop from the peak level in excess of 7 million shares several months ago.
Tried to send you an E-mail and it bounced back. Send me one and I will have your correct address.
Will answer your question.
Haven't heard a word from the usual suspects who follow the company on the conference calls or who host the various webcasts from the healthcare conferences.
Is no news good news?
Market Edge rates NVDQ as "Avoid with a 0 rating (the lowest) Jan 22, 2016
The Street Ratings has a D+ "Sell" rating Jan 24, 2016
Research Team has a "Reduce" rating Jan 27, 2016
Ford Equity Research has a "Strong Sell" rating Jan 22, 2016
Market Edge has "Avoid" Jan 22, 2016
Any wonder why the price is down? When I read through the reports I realized they were all basing their recommendations on:
1) price trends over the last year
2) the increasing deterioration of earnings (well they just hired 110 marketing persons over the last year for a company of 351 employees and the need for training and it was stated that they would take 6-12 months to come up to speed--Revenues Q1-$11.7M, Q2-$15.1M, Q3-$17.0M, Q4-$20.0M---duh!
3) deteriorating cash flow over the last 4 quarters
Who pays these guys to drive looking in the rear view mirror with Stevie Wonder glasses on?
They currently are forecasting a $0.15 loss for Q4 2015. My model has the company with a $0.07 loss and break even sometime late 2016 or early 2017.