Oops, i meant to give you thumbs up. Darn touch screen. Two thumbs up for keeping the faith and keeping us informed.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks Endo, Von and Mr B for weighing in with your thoughts. I'm standing pat but it sure is troubling to watch.
I have never been a technical day trader so I am not firmiliar with the tools they use. That said, there is one thing they monitor which is important to them. That is when the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average. There is a name for this situation which alludes me. The current 50 day moving average is at $17.53 and the current 200 day is at $17.39. Unless things change, they will cross shortly. At the same time the RSI has once again crossed below 30, which usually indicates an oversold position.
As mentioned in a previous posting, there are some investor presentations scheduled this month; namely, William Blair on 6/10, Bloom Burton on 6/18, and JMP Securities on 6/24.
To CHASE someone away , the person must first RUN.
No one can CHASE AWAY anyone who stands still
Thus a SELLER is willing to RUN AWAY
A fighter stays and fights and defends his ground and beliefs.
SO RUN OR FIGHT..Not their fault if you RUN
A couple of points. I find your comment that you have recently learned that short interest on Novadaq has reached 3 million shares worrisome. That is a 700,000 shares increase since 5/15 and it occurs after the stock has already declined by 40%. While it is true that many companies the size and type of Novadaq have been trashed over the past two months, I have always tried to not underestimate the folks that are taking a position opposite mine. In that respect, the only fundamental I can readily think of that they know something about that I don't is the current status of the marketing effort. Were the initial sales just low hanging fruit and the marketing effort has now stalled? That, imo, is the only fundamental issue that could cause such a substantial drop in the pps.
The second point is the volume yesterday. It was over 400 thousand shares and we were down. That much volume on a stock that is 80% owned by Institutions indicates that institutional selling continues. Given the size of the company, there are a number of institutions with very large positions. JP morgan Chase come to mind. I remain convinced that one or more of these institutions is making a significant reduction in their exposure. The $64 dollar question remains, do these institutions know something we don't ?
One thing that could help us get some clarification is the fact that this month the company will be making several investor presentations. If they indicate that they remain on course to grow revenues by 40% a year, the bleeding could finally end. Right now, it is a heck of a situation.
Secondary Sales Squeeze Investors
Slide in Technology, Health-Care Stocks Has Burned Those Who Bought Into Follow-On Offerings
A piece in today's (June 3, 2014) WSJ by Matt Jarzemsky may answer our questions. ( Just google the headline/author to read it if Yahoo disallows the link). Novadaq has been caught in a web of institutional selling, not particularly relating to Novadaq, but rather because of its status as a highflier in the med/tech space. This initially caused the selloff of similar companies, but has since continued because of nervousness by institutions who lost money buying IPOs and secondary offerings. That the bad news. The good news is that Novadaq's fundamental story is 100% intact and getting stronger. In time this draft(hurricane) will subside, and the stock will once again trade on its amazing fundamentals.
Sentiment is everything, and it changes all the time.
Keep the faith!
Hey. I know how we can both make money. Send me 10% of your monthly gain, and I'll promise NOT to buy any of those, because, as soon as I do, the gains will be over. :-)
I watch what could be one of the most undervalued company on the open market have its stock price continues to drop full percentages almost every day. On April 4th the stock hit a high of $24.09. Two months to the day (tomorrow) the price will open around $13.71 (closing price 06/03/14). Down 43%! I thought it was high at $24 but not 43% high. The institutions are absent by and large based on volumes and types of trades for the last few weeks. I was told a few days ago there were approximately 3 million shares shorted out of 55 million. With this many shares (about 10-14 days average volume 270k) I would think shorts would be loath to pile up much more. Does someone know there is an unannounced threat to NVDQ's technology? Does someone have knowledge that the ongoing marketing initiative of PINPOINT and/or LUNA is not going well?
I remember back in 2008 ISRG dropped from $357 to $87 in a few months! I was befuzzeled back then too. It later rose to over $600 before it was beset by rumors, false law suites, and a prominent news casters twisted negative presentation on Bloomberg. Back then I wish I had a $ Billion. I would have purchased 25% of ISRG and returned 6 fold in 3 years. Today I would take that same $ Billion and buy 80% of Novadaq!
If anyone has a theory or even reasonable guesses as to an explanation for the precipitous drop in NVDQ over the last 60 days please reply to this.
it is there own private source of trading funds, and holding ;
when the ecb decides to charge eu banks for holding funds,
stock trading will be the only way to make money;
holding overnight will be dangerous;
this stock is undoubtably someone's playtoy;
it will soon gap up at an open and hold a day's gain over 4 or 5 points;
Just curious, if anyone who holds NVDQ also owns DXCM? DXCM is similar to NVDQ (Medical Technology company with large addressable market). I currently do not own DXCM, it's just on my watchlist...I think it's very richly valued at these levels, while NVDQ is only richly valued (I also think it has more potential).
Andersongordon, your judgment is on target, so we share an opinion, the shorting seems overdone,
but the price can stay distorted for a long time, and even go lower, and again I agree with the volume concept, any further selling would be on light volume, nvdq now off the low at 14.63 ask;
The price pendulum for NVDQ was pushed too far to the left when Institutional investors finally discovered the new and exciting company called Novadaq with its "Disruptive" technology in the large poorly supplied medical field of Diagnostics (multi billion dollar markets in US and international). This company that has not yet produced one penny of positive earnings went from $3 to $24 in a few years! Then coincident with a disastrous quarter from neighboring ISRG (caused primarily by two factors, 1) 70% uncertainties surrounding Obamacare, 2) 30% rollout of a new machine making the existing SI model a second generation "obsolete" option). A large institutional investor unloaded 500k shares at $24 and change....thus the pendulum by shear gravity overcame the buying bias and reversed course. As copycat institutions also began to unload "in the money shares, take money off the table, reduce risk,....etc." the Short sharks could taste the blood in the water and joined in the frenzy. The pendulum was now being at first drawn towards a neutral price and then was pushed beyond into an oversold price on momentum and fuel from Shorters (now over 2 million shares). When the Shorters risk reward diminishes to nothing and the institutional selling has burnt itself out the pendulum will reverse. Based on the miniscule volumes of late I suspect the institutions are done and now only Shorter can sustain the sell momentum. At $14@ Novadaq is well under the fundamental price (NPV calculation methodology). Shorters short at great peril at these prices. If the upcoming quarterly results indicate NVDQ PINPOINT and LUNA are for real, the pendulum will reverse and reverse hard.
We may have seen the price bottom yesterday at 14:10 ($14.06). I don't like Short sharks. They artificially distort the pricing mechanism. I would enjoy watching the price return to ~$18 in the next few weeks and watch them flail for the few remaining shares in the water.
maybe nvdq tomorrow;
spx at all time highs;
will continue higher;
the idea that nvdq is a source of funds for the shorts will become more ridiculous soon;
but where will it stop;
Agree with these comments. Aside from just profit taking, look at the 1Q14 13F filings: 8-9m shares in new instl/hedge fund shareholders there who bought in 1Q14 or at least appear to have done so. Marsico, Waddell, New Century, Visium, Janus etc etc - 1Q14 began at $16.30 p/s and ended b/w $22-23, so by definition you have a lot of newbies who bought right into the buzz saw of the post-Sages/post 1Q14 selloff - combined with those who bought the $16 deal last yr also underwater. And then as Endo points out, the 1st Q call raised a lot of ?s about the Lifecell JV, slower Firefly placements, the initial sales ramp for Luna/Pinpoint (which by all accounts is going great YTD). 2Q results are the next big datapoint which seems like a long wait - but I for one am not convinced the fundamental story has changed at all, just mkt sentiment about what it should be worth today. If they manage to buy Lifecell out of the last 12 mos of that JV for a reasonable price - then consolidate another $18-19m in revenue from than JV on the P&L, and control SPY distribution, that would be a nice positive as well.
It looks like nvdq has bottomed here, or very close to it;
take a look at mdvn; moving higher also; and very much up from the bottom;
not a bad duo to follow;
endo, On the intrigue side of analysis, I keep thinking that isrg wants the diversification
of nvdq products; Sages was a point of interest for nvdq products, isrg knew it,
and still knows it; Barclays and others most probably wanted isrg to buy
nvdq after sages, with Arun saving no; most institutions dumped a bit of shares,
knowing the near term revenue was not there, and Barclays dumped also, now
Barclays (acting as agent for isrg, is playing with the stock, (( as you say, vulnerable)),
so as to get shares cheap, prior to a confirmed sales ramp; hot money moved out,
and the shares dropped, so where do the new longs support the price; and are
the new longs related favorably toward nvdq, or isrg?); someone may have drawn a line at 14.50; just a round figure swag; but it is holding today;