Fits the pattern Endo. I would love to have NVDQ go positive ongoing earnings in Q4. That would leave 3.6 million shares to be covered as the price passes $25@. Once this company with it's razor/razor blade business model goes positive it will never look back. I think the recent price movement is not driven by fundamentals but fear of further shorting in the light of positive earnings possibilities. The volumes, accept for a few institutional purchases (the vast majority of these are accumulation not distribution) are meager at best. The tale will be told in 30-45 days.
Thanks for the data point Endo.
Short interest increased 428,000 shares to 3.659,000 shares for the period ending 12/15.
Bear in mind that the LifeNet health distributor agreement press release happened on 12/10.
The stock rallied dramatically on that news and continued up for the next two days. On 12/15, the stock declined substantially. Imho, that was the day this substantial increase in short interest happened.
The Lord Jesus Christ is the greatest gift. He has been gracious to me. I thank you one and all for all your help and insights as well as asking the hard and probing questions. Without those on this board and Fish from the ISRG board I would not have found NVDQ and invested.
Again Thanks to you all.
Endo and others,
Happy and safe Holidays! Merry Christmas! Wish you guys prosperous 2015, hopefully NVDQ will reward you as you guys hope for!
Fully concur. That what I saw too when I read the statement...WE ARE ENTERING A STAGE OF ANTICIPATED RAPID GROWTH. That is, above the historical 40%.
(from the comp[any website)
"We are entering a stage of anticipated rapid growth,” said Dr. Menawat"
Most companies manage expectations by giving conservative guidance.
Management must be quite certain or else they'd be setting up the share price for a future collapse.
They are definitely gearing up for 60% or greater growth. Probably triple digit growth for the next three years. Von, it seems to me they had no problem ramping up manufacture of the their capital machines 100% even 200% over their current rate. Do you or anyone know what their maximum rate is? Will they need to add an additional shift to go higher? At what point would even 24 hour production fail to keep up? If they announce the purchase of or long term lease of a new manufacturing facility we could view this as a confirmation of their triple digit growth estimate...
Thoughts one and all?
Excellent changes in the management team, especially pleased with bigger roles for Rick Mangat and Roger Deck. Much more streamlined, knowledgeable and forceful...looking forward to a great 2015!
Thanks for connecting the dots. Thanks also to Flamfurter for his comments. So, Arun waited until his team officially took over the marketing of Spy-Elite to pull this rabbit out of the hat. This new agreement had to have been in some form of development even prior to the settlement being reached with Lifecell. Remarkable!!
Thank you Flam. I do not have the exact market share of the LifeNet Health products except I looked into this about 6 months ago for a possible acquisition on the part of Novadaq of a small private company in the same area. Because of the private nature of the company and other products that they manufactured, it turned out to be not likely. However during the investigation I realize the importance of the product in providing a platform for cell / skin formation in surgeries where large wound areas existed. Of all the competing products the LifeNet products were the best and dominated the market. As I said, I didn't know the extent of the dominance (thanks again Flam) but they were the "gold standard". With the combination of blood profusion efficacy measurement provided by SPY combined with the cell mesh from LifeNet, you get synergies that will only enhance the 70-80% market share from the higher clinical performance and cost savings. If Novadaq can have their sales persons in 80%Plus of the market in an accelerated time frame...the dots are on the page.
I believe the institutions have smart enough people to connect these same dots and yesterday they returned to the table in a big way. I expect the institutions that did not participate yesterday will have to come back to acquire shares in the days to come. Combine this with the recent increase of 3.2 to 3.5 million shorted shares (Nov 15th) and institutions currently have 85% plus of the existing shares leave only about 6 million available for the shorted shares to bid on (assuming the institutions are in the acquiring mode). The squeeze is definitely on. If we have another up day today the shorters will begin to face margin calls and will be forced to either buy in the open market or put up cash.
To quote a successful Senatorial candidate from Iowa..."Make them squeal til it hurts..."
I have bin following your blogs endo and von. Thanks for your contributions.
Spoke to Breast reconstruction surgeon. Lifecell is the leader in this market with 70-80% share. So not only did we take SPY from Lifecell but we are now directly competing with them. My take is that NVDQ sales team has old Lifecell sales people and they are probably confident that they can compete with the life net health product line. This is exciting in MHO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I too would appreciate knowing more about the implications of this agreement with LifeNet Health. Can't seem to find a detailed listing of hospitals employing the company's products.
I love the conclusions you reach about marketing presence and price targets, but have to admit that I am having a problem connecting the dots of your posting. Any chance, when you have a free moment or two, to give it to me in a more expanded fashion.