Arun said "When we are ready we will release our upgrades...not dependent on the competition" Sample size, sample size, sample size...tick toc, tick toc, I suspect they would need thousands to present to the FDA to get clearance for doctors to rely on such an indication tool.
We shall see...but it is painful watching the price get pounded.
Thanks for response. I agree except that I have heard Novadaq "estimate" number of procedures conducted based on SPY kit sales. They do not seem to have complete knowledge on all procedures which makes me question if it is easy for them to gather the sample points to do such an analysis.
I also noted Arun's difficulty in responding to many of the analyst questions. It appeared to me that he was avoiding many of the questions directly. That was my take and i dont understand why. It is a responsibility as the company leader to point out positive info without an extraction process. Certainly puzzling.
On your other note, what is the expected time frame in this industry for salesman productivity to reach full productivity?
I am an engineer. I know we use quantitative measures coupled with statistical (large numbers of samples) evidence to make decisions on reliability and "predictors" of adequacy or success. NVDQ has all or will have all of these attributes available to them. They currently can measure over time the intensity of the energy emanating from the concentration of their chemical when stimulated with near infrared light. They also have a "calibrating" solution that can be given to each individual patient to determine what is a "good" flow for that person. A 5 year olds blood flow will differ markedly from a 65 year old, yet each has a flow that is associated with "healthy" tissue. Now take this information in large samples of individuals (statistical sampling is more predictable when samples get larger---below ~200 this technique is not "accurate" enough to be counted. Now gather these two and incorporate the software into the product presentation and this simple presentation of a very complex information and analysis system becomes a very very powerful help to the medical evaluation, treatment decision, implementation, and verification.
I have no insider information, just looking at what Novadaq has, what they could do and the direction Arun is moving in and ...speculate.
If Novadaq is doing this they will not let it be known until they have a proven concept and patent application in hand.
GSA, Agree with your first point. Arun indicated that as time passes, their decision to take back SpyElite *when the opportunity arose* will prove to be right.
Your thoughts about the next generation enhancements are quite interesting. However, I re-read the investor presentation and other material but have not found clues to the plan that the company is working on this "zones of adequate blood flow" enhancements for the products. I am sure you have reasons to believe the same. Can you provide some clue? Thanks.
I suspect they didn't plan or want to take back SpyElite but LifeCell decided to play hardball and not yield on the value Novadaq developed. The 5 year special concession was now over and as often happens in negotiations the curse of framing judgment often leads negotiators to not review the fundamentals of the situation. "If they got X before, isn't it fair to expect X again?" What changed was Novadaq had an unknown and unproven new technology 5 years ago and 5 years later is was both known and proven to be of great value. A good distribution channel 5 years ago was still a good distribution channel 5 years later and deserved a "fair" share of the Present Value, but that was much less than the "fair" share of 5 years before.
All that being said, I think NVDQ was taken by surprise that LifeCell was unwilling to adjust their position. The best option for NVDQ was to take a hit up front on the distribution channel and take back the product to become part of their Integration Strategy...though earlier than they were ready for.
Looking at their Investor Presentations you can clearly see the change in emphasis. They moved from individual products to the Diagnostic/Surgical Aid/Result Confirmation Integration using their current and future suite of products. I suspect that was what Arun was hinting at when he stated at the CC "we will release our product enhancements when we are ready and it fits our strategy" not dependent on completion's introductions (Stryker).
Look for "zones" of adequate blood flow in the screen presentations the doctors and surgeons can use for diagnosis, surgical guidance and confirmation of results. Think of a topgraphical map with contour lines. Iso-flow lines of blood flow differentiated by color, red for inadequate, orange, yellow for marginal, green for adequate and blue for superadequate. Imagine what this would do for diagnostics. Treatment determination based on lack of blood flow followed by real time observation.
At the end of April, in the investors section of their website, Novadaq released a new letter from Arun. It discusses events of the last couple of years, studies (completed and in progress), partners, patents (89 granted and 102 pending), and the direction of the company's future efforts.
"looks like they should have waited until their own marketing effort on Pinpoint and Luna were fully established before taking over Spy Elite"
Good point. Seems like they were overwhelmed taking Lifecell back and lost their focus on PInpoint and Luna. But this is all short term growing pains that will fade in time. Speaking of time, let's remember that Pillar 3 and FILM are still on track to put Novadaq ahead of the pack, say, in a little over a year away. So let's not get hung up on temporary problems. jmho.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Hi folks, how much of these markets can Novadaq capture in the end?
Roger Tsien, a Nobel laureate, is pretty active in this field. Any spinoff from him? Or collaboration with Novadaq?
We are right now at a critical juncture for this company. We are about 90% owned by Institutions. Just about all of the recent heavy volume is institutional activity. Some have been unquestionably been selling heavily.
That selling has been soaked up by other institutions albeit at lower and lower prices. The overall stock market has been booming and we have been slipping back. It is obvious that some of the larger investors have a great belief in the products and continue to be very patient. How long can we expect that to last. Personally I am hoping that the stock holds at this level till the 2nd quarter report and CC. At that time, Arun MUST show clear evidence that the pipeline is fulling up.
I could not agree with you more. A few months ago I made a posting here that was not very well received. As with you I too have seen companies and CEO's in particular who were great in terms of their R & D and the products that came out of that research effort. Then they have to cross a bridge from being an R&D company to a revenue generating organization with the emphasis now on marketing and less so on research. Some CEO's have a problem effectively making that transition, not from a lack of effort but from a lack of experience.
Over and over during this recent CC Arun stumbled on questions related to marketing. For example, it took repeated questions from one of the analyst to get Arun to address pipeline. His response indicated that all levels of the pipeline were improving late in the 1st quarter. This was positive information that he should have addressed himself right at the outset of his comments. Thank God, the analyst asked the question.
I continue to be confused by the issue of salesman productivity and why it is taking almost a year for a salesman to reach full productivity. I also believe Arun and his team underestimated the difficulties of taking over the Lifecell accounts ans Spy Elite. I know this is Monday morning quarterbacking but it looks like they should have waited until their own marketing effort on Pinpoint and Luna were fully established before taking over Spy Elite.
more to come
For the past 2 days, Novadaq has outperformed the market on more than triple its average daily volume. Its pps has held above the round number of 10 on 2 occasions---Oct 22, 2014 and April 30, 2015. Hopefully the selling is all washed out and a rebound is in the works in the coming months.
-Stryker entry validates market and will lead to market growth which will be a benefit to NVDQ.
-NVDQ targeting more complex surgeries that are beyond Stryker capability (they think). The example given related to 800,000 gall bladder surgeries, of which, NVDQ products would target 100,000 of the more complex procedures. Arun stated that this has been their model from the start.
-Upgrade strategy will be delivered at the right time and not in response to other developments. Technology is being advanced and will set NVDQ further apart from any competition.
I believe the story is still in place here. NVDQ is the market leader (creator) and has top shelf products that are patent protected with no one in the rear view mirror in regards to their target procedures. What I question is the effectiveness of the sales staff and the 65 million dollar revenue projection. I think it will be difficult for them to achieve this. I wonder if it would have been better to revise this number to something lower. In the near term, I think the stock price will struggle and the shorts will continue to beat this stock. If the sales staff begins to bear fruit as expected, Q1 2016 could be the beginning of the upward trend we have all been waiting for. Until then, patience.....
I agree. LifeCell has been successful promoting the SPY because their reps had tissue and perfusion imaging in their portfolio, thus increasing the potential revenue per account and customer visit. Novadaq has done the right thing by taking in DermACELL, which seems to be a superior product over the other tissues. Now, Novadaq's sales organization has to be given the time to build LifeCell style momentum - which is feasible.
Sentiment: Strong Buy