Let's see thsir sales force is double the size as last year and thT did about a 100k more in sales????? Shorts smell money, this company hAs no more rabbits. They will burn all that money left withinf. 2 Or less years.
There turnover is ridiculous. Everyone I talk to in field is miserable, get rid of managent top down clean house. There sales will continue to drop they sold all the capital in return killed their disposable margins. Good luck trying to cpete in a world of tissue, just what we need another tissue company. Not enough of those.
Not at all happy with the non response re: replacing poorly performing sales people.
I'll redouble my efforts to speak with Steve Kilmer.
For the two week reporting period ending 4/15, short interest increased substantially by 460 thousand shares to 4.5 million shares.
p.s. Let's hope for some reasonable revenue numbers later today.
I believe the 3 years was mentioned by the company in their press release. The FDA rejected their application for their robotic surgical system and this is the time it will take to correct and test the problems found by the FDA.
PS- There is currently an installed base of 1700+ Firefly systems. Even a modest upgrade charge ($20,000, at the current contract rate) on 25% of these systems would net $8.5M. And I would be surprised if a new contract didn't at least double the current rate. Last I heard Firefly only contributed about 5% to Novadaq's revenue, 10% would make it significant.
My understanding was that Arun and Roger were prepared to eliminate the lower quartile of salespeople for under performance. That's what I'm most interested in. Everything else was discussed at Needham.
#1) the productivity of the 80 existing marketing persons hired a year ago. If it exceeds $925k annual sales rate there will be "Joy in Mudville"! That translates into ~$18.5M revenue from Capital Sales, Recurring Revenue and Service Revenue. Another way of doing it is to subtract "Partnership Revenue, Overseas Revenue and Royalty Fees from the total Revenue. This may be a little aggressive given this is the weakest of all quarters due to hospital budgeting and capital spending plans. So you could take 10%-20% out for the Q1 impact. That would diminish the $18.5M to around $16M. If they come in above this, by how much? $16M from the 80 is boggie. $18.5M from the 80 means they are on target to have ~$19.5M total sales and the stock price should reach ~$15@ within a short time. If total sales are in at ~$18.5M the stock will drop to ~$12-$12.50@.
Looking forward to the conference call on Wednesday.
TransEnterix seemed to be the closest threat, but I was also thinking about Medtronic/Covidien and Google/J&J (oh, I forgot- and Titan). At least one competitor will emerge in the OR within three or four years, we'll see just how viable their machines are.
By competition on the horizon, I wonder if you are referring to TransEnterix? Their robotic surgery machine was just rejected by the FDA. Will take them at least another 3 years.
He says, "We have been increasing our investments in imaging, analytics, and new product architecture to promote better outcomes." I can understand them investing more in analytics and architecture, but how would they currently be investing more in imaging? Or is he possibly referencing some other type of imaging such as magnification?
As you indicated on the other board, if this does involve us, the implications are substantial.
Maybe because up till now, they have been operating as a monopoly in the robotic world, and when they brought out the XI, they still had a cheap, medium term contract with Novadaq still in effect and no impetus make it any better than economics dictated. With competition on the horizon they may have decided now was time to sew up an operational advantage.
Thanks for the input. I hope this involves us and a more attractively priced contract. I never could wrap my head around why ISRG would bring out their latest model and not include our upgrades, especially given the level of their profits and cash position.