$17.5 M? Endo that would imply only 39 machine sales vs 65 for Q4. Is this your estimate or do you have a source? I hope you are wrong. From my model this would imply using only the 80 experienced sales persons Q1 2015 $420k, Q2 2015 $600k, Q3 2015 $670k, Q4 2015 $835k, and Q1 2016 $700. That is a big drop off as it includes an ever (10%?) contribution from recurring revenue and maintenance contracts so the # of sales per person would have to drop from .8125 to .4875 per quarter. I know there is a seasonality factor, but that is bucking the natural increase of productivity sales person acquire with experience and contact development. I estimate them at .6375 per quarter for 51 sales in Q1 2016.
It looks like we will get $17.5 million in revenues for the 1st quarter. If recurring revenue increases 10% as it did in the 4th quarter, it will will come in at $7.3 million in the 1st quarter. That leaves $10.07 million in Capital sales. Since they entered 2016 with 100 salesmen the average sales per salesman will be $100,700 or substantially less than the cost of one machine. Not good. These numbers assume all of the sales were domestic. Were there no capital sales internationally at all? That would be bad in my mind. If there were some, than the capital sales for the 100 domestic salesmen is even worse on average. Personally, I believe that in the rush to bring salesmen aboard, the company has not been as selective as they should have been.
Oh joy, after talking about international sales for several years, they may actually have some in the second half - great execution! I was baffled by your labeling of the European market as "socialist" - what do you think the Asian healthcare markets are?
GSA - Agreed, no new information except confirming their current guidance is "about 32 to 35, 36% growth" and they "remain pretty comfortable with that guidance".
The Investor Presentation is unchanged since January with the following exceptions:
1. they updated Slide #10 now showing Q4 15 results
2. they inserted one new slide (Slide #28) providing details regarding new molecules:
" 5. New Imaging Molecules: Long Term Growth
* First molecule (ICG) - blood flow in vessels, perfusion, lymph nodes
- Product upgrades, new clinical applications
* Second molecule - On track for announcement in late 2016
- Critical anatomy
- Enablement of certain new surgeries
* Third molecule - Cancer margins "
Arun provided an update regarding their four new product announcements:
- they have already introduced two new products this year (color software upgrade, 5mm endoscope)
- they will introduce the third product later this week (LUNA software upgrade)
- they have the fourth product ready and will release it in Q3 (handheld SPY device).
Other growth-driver color provided by Arun:
- they will announce their second molecule before the end of 2016, it will provide impact in 2018.
- they expect to announce results of the FILM Trial (SLN) in Q4-2016, impact in 2017.
- they expect to release interim results of PILLAR III at SAGES 2017, impact in 2017.
And lastly, no one asked any questions even though they had 4 minutes remaining... which struck me as slightly odd.
Agreed, disappointed about the lack of revenue news for the current quarter.
Enrollments picking up, with Film results expected in Q4 and Pillar results expected at SAGES, Q1.
International on track for H2 with the European socialists and Asia expected to kick in.
2nd molecule to be introduced this year, 3rd molecule next year.
Sales team still at 100 on the way to 120.
So we're still in hurry up and wait mode.
Thank you for your input and participation just trying to see if can't do just as well as the analysts,
My guess is b/b
Will be interesting and hopefully they will touch on all the items you mention.
Although I would agree that the Provider Budgeting process has tons of bureaucracy, I would say it depends on the FYE of the provider for budget planning , Easiest for me was 10/1 this way it syncs with the Federal IPPS, but system at now is a 7/1 Terrible for Budgeting Medicare on the IP side, Hopefully with the Trial sponsors NVDQ has a foot in the door to make the pitch.
But still tough with all the reductions to provider reimbursement in the pipeline.
Tomorrows meeting I believe is in NY if I am not mistaken,
Enjoy the posts
Not too many other inputs so far, I thought other regulars would have shared a guess?
Daniel, there are some down side forces to consider. 1st there is the Hospital budgeting process that depresses 1st quarter capital equipment sales as it takes time to get approval and paperwork through committees and the administrative beurocracy. 2nd Arun has stated repeatedly the projection for 2016 is 32%-35% growth in revenue. If you plug in these and look at the projections to come up with 34% 2016 revenue growth I get $18.83M Q1 revenue and 47 Q1 machine sales versus $20.02 and 65 Q4 2015 sales. This is the "Base" case as set out by management and the calendar. Are they being conservative? I think so as they have trended in the last three quarters to beat expectations. Will the Q1 capital equipment headwind be diminished because of the newness and revolutionary clinical benefits of their products and software? Good question. I hope some light is shed on this in tomorrows meeting down in Miami.
My personal estimate is for 51 sales and $19.56M revenue. I expect the growth of both revenue and stock price to accelerate in the latter half of 2016.
1) the preliminary results of FILM (Sentinal Lymphatic Node Study) in Q4 release
2) first material International sales starting in H2
3) material additions to recurring revenue of DermaCELL in the 50-100 top hospitals adoption
4) first successes of Arthrex joint marketing initiative to capture Hospital equipment and supply contracts (typically 5 years in length)
If it is the former, a) and a).
I estimate (vote) for b) and b).
If Arun talks about the 4 drivers above and is both "excited" and convincing , then b) and c).
Poll question 1: Revenues
a) Below $19 M
b) Between $19.01 & $20M.
c) Greater than $20M
Question 2: Stock Price Market Close 4/16
a) Below $12.00
d) Between $12.00 - 12.99
c) Above $13.
Leap year extra Day for Rev / Mild Winter
Hi Buzz IM = Immaterial, sorry if the other was a typo. IF you have not already done so, go to Clinialtrils.gov in the search box type 'Novadaq' , 12 studies will come up all in different phases. In an individual study I use the tabular form and I look for some items I think are relevant like Study Sponsor, I hope this helps, I am just trying to get others view to keep challenging to see if this is a runaway stock or just a good story that never fully took off. I do not want to go long, but I have a lot of questions? BOTTOM LINE and I did it in caps is because and many may argue on this point, but the company has to produce a positive bottom line.
As a share holder my view is we have been stuck in a range that does not sit right with the opportunity, and in ARUNs own words they must execute. From looking at the financial statements I believe there are incentives in place to help move this along. See Message from the President next to last paragraph $100 million milestone, to me this means Bonus for the "C" Suite, which is hopefully in Stock options which should hopefully is enough incentive to work on raising the stock price.
Please understand this is my opinion like to hear from others?
Last if results are published they should complete it on Clincaltrials why not? Maybe some one can offer an answer or opinion, like to hear.
Good luck to all
I couldn't find a study numbered NCT0156033, typo? Pillar II (great results) has been published, press release Oct. 2, 2014. I guess the company has the option to share or not share the data at clinicaltrials. What is IM?
I am starting to get a little more questionable. I have to do some more looking, but don't understand why the Pillar II results NCT01560377 have not bee posted on Clinicaltrials.gov There could be reasons but you would think that they would want too unless it was IM. Others I will keep my eye on is NCT0156033. Wondering how much of the Accrue Trail Liability is related to each of the open ones and how much more will be expensed to complete. This conf. update I hope gives some additional info on all aspects. Don't want to be caught getting strung along either.
2/29 to 3/15 - For the most part the pps remains in a narrow band between $9.25 and $9.375.
During this 2 week period, short interest declines by 650,000 shares. The largest two week
drop that I can recall.
3/17 - pps reaches as low as $8.67
3/18 to 4/5 - The pps increases 13 of the 14 business days during this period and is now up 42% from the
During a relatively short period of time the stock has moved from being extremely oversold (RSI of 27) to extremely overbought (RSI of 77). While daily price movements will continue to give us some insight, the next piece of solid insight should come in a few days when we see the latest short interest numbers. As with most investors here, I remain hopeful that some good news is percolating below the surface.
Irony I have been holding for approx 2 yrs . I too also have a ways to go to break even.
I just have a feeling that the incentives are there now Mgmt. So I have a feeling that over the next 2 qtrs. that we will see some movement hoping in the positive trend direction, but IMO not sure if they can execute with what they stated in the past. like to see a positive bottom line soon. I hop for all our sakes that they execute. Regards
Daniel, in the years i've held and lost money on this stock,
their economic projections have very seldom proved to be conservative!
I keep getting suckered into sitting on it in the hope of breaking even....
Looking forward to the conf. call,
Skimmed thru the annual report, ( On NVDQ website)
Guidance in the Letter to Shareholders for Rev has been consistent $84m- $86m. So I hope this is conservative and I am putting my projection bet on Q1 overall Rev at $19.8.
Bal Sheet. I found interesting is that the AR YOY grew 61% / Allow for Doubtful accounts remained steady.
And If I am interpreting the Credit risk note correctly, 1 customer is a big client with a steady AR Value approx. $5 million each of the past 2 years, hopefully in disposables. Lots of items to ponder and plot as this Story of NVDQ unfolds.
Comedy thought on Letter to share holders paragraph 4 "does NVDQ really want China to reverse engineer and be a competitor?, just saying concentrate on the existing market; no worry about currency fluctuation and note in the fs stays IM.
Later expenses and RSU's and DSU's.
Good Luck to all Still Holding.
You are absolutely right . Over the past year we have had a number of strong upward movements only to come crashing back to the $9 to $10 pps levels. Over the past 10 business days the stock has increased on strong daily volume. The overall market has upticked over that period as well. We have moved from under $9 to nearly $12, which is a very strong move. Is it company specific or are we just rising with the tide?? Is it a coincidence that just prior to this move up, short interest declined by 650,000 shares during the first two weeks of April?? Short interest is now at its lowest level in over a year. I guess we'll know soon enough.