I did not realize the difference in mortality rates is so substantial. If accurate, then it is tragic, if not borderline criminal to not use Spy or Firefly in all colon cases.
Do you happen to remember where those numbers (30% vs. 3%) come from? One of the PILLAR or other prospective studies? Sales/Marketing should be trumpeting those numbers if or when substantiated.
As always, thanks for posting, you contributions to this board are tremendous!
Cornell University President Dies of Colon Cancer
Today 2:01 PM ET (Dow Jones)Print
By Melissa Korn
Cornell University President Elizabeth Garrett died Sunday night after a short battle with colon cancer, eight months after taking the helm of the Ivy League institution.
She was 52 years old. Ms. Garrett was Cornell's first female president.
She announced her diagnosis in early February and underwent surgery two weeks later.
How sad. With ~30% mortality rate without SpyElite to ~3% with, when will the adoption become standard of care?
Something has to give, and I hope soon:
Either NVDQ will greatly outperform the conservative guidance given, hopefully based upon the number of units placed this past quarter and all the attention put on the sales team
IF this is a disruptive technology, be a take over target for ISRG or Medtronic looking to get into the robot side of healthcare. Or Google is looking to jump in. Easily affordable to any of these co.
What I would like to see, Management go out and purchase shares on the open market, hopefully the SEC filing might just grab the attention of others to take notice of this company. That might just cause some of the short interest ( around 8% ) to run for cover and move the needle and would make me feel that they ( Mgmt ) believe.
A few months ago this was near $14, now below $10, This stock should not follow the normal market trends if it is a disruptor. Glass ceiling at $10 I think ( hoping ) it will run if it breaks thru.
I hope your right about the $19.6 million because I'm not buying into the cyclicality of the 1st quarter. You would think that the fact this is a disruptive technology with such strong benefits both physically and economically would offset 1st quarter slowness. Also, Arun has repeatedly indicated that each salesman needs about a year to come up to speed. Even with that lead time, the productivity by half the salesforce is poor to bad.
Endo, last quarter the company sold 65 machines up from 47 in Q3. But what was even more significant was they placed 63 machines up from 36 in Q3. They had been burning through the 250-300 "pipeline" of placed though not bought machines. During Q4 the inflows essentially matched the outflows for the first time. Machine sales Q1 20, Q2 36, Q3 47, Q4 65 is a trend that is so strong that it should overwhelm the Q1 seasonal weakness. Even including seasonal weakness I get revenue coming in around ~$19.6M. This may be high but it will only take 54 machine sales to get there.
We might get some hint out of the March 16 Investor update. We shall see.
At the last CC Arun indicated that revenues for the 1st quarter will come in around the consensus number of $17.5 million. The market has not been impressed by that number. That isn't much productivity when you consisder the size of the salesforce. The 5 largest institutional investors own over 47% of the shares outstanding. Unless there is a marked uptick in productivity we could see some some changes at the top.
I came to the same conclusion just based on block trading over the last months. During low volume days, since there is no news or path to positive earnings put forth, a few sales could drive the price down (higher amplitude when low volume exists) and then when sentiment is leaning negative, come in and buy back the shares and then some at a lower average price. I suspect the only way to stop this is for real good news to be made public and institutional interest to be rekindled. They would eat up gladly any blocks offered at lower prices as they are in the accumulation mode.
A second way to stop this is if, knowing that this was happening someone or institution takes the opposite side of the trade. I would like to have ~$100M to take this up...now I would own ~11 M shares at $9+ knowing that I am holding a "ten bagger" in the making. But alas....
See you all at the next Investors Day Conference, when the price should be approaching $20@.