Wow I don't know who the buyer is on this one but hes crazy - I bought back in the 2.0s this week and sold it all today at 2.5 on this huge market buy order.
They will most likely release their Q1 PR next week so I will be looking to get back in if it drops back down
I think Q1 could be good - one of the reasons their Q4 was weak is because they increased their spending on marketing. The benefits of this increase would be seen in Q1 which is their strongest quarter by far. Very likely we will see $2s again in May.
Sold out all in the $1.9s. Looking for $1.6s again going into Q1 do you think I will get them? I think I will, the sentiment around this stock is extremely negative.
Our loss ratios in 2013 and 2014 were higher than historical averages, partly due to the introduction of new products and technology. The higher loss ratios reflect increased charge-offs from our higher dollar installment loan product due to the seasoning of our installment loan portfolio, together with our continued education and development as it relates to underwriting and customer credit quality for installment loan products. We expect the loss ratio in 2015 to improve over the rates in 2013 and 2014 but skew modestly higher than historical averages given our continued emphasis on new products and to implementation of technology to enhance the customer experience.
let say 2015 loss ration falls to 28%, 130 bassis pt improvement, and rev falls to 152M, all else being equal, EPS will rise to about 0.45, that pretty much assures the regular 0.20 dividend will be fully resumed, QCCO should rise to 4 again
so far so good, they called it a special dividend, probably to cover their butts in case earnings don't go over 5c next Q. but it's clear to me they are focussing on getting better borrowers, and gradually shrinking the Bal Sht
my guess is that Mr. Early got his buddies to buy out the used car lot, and then reinvested 3M into the subdebt just to get the covenants changed in order to pay 20c annual dividends again
Earnings came in today at $.08 -- could write a novel here about all the different ways these guys are undervalued, but I don't really see the point. I'm holding.
Maybe tomorrow? haha If I'm wrong again I'll just be quiet. Honestly the late PR worries me a bit, but I don't see much downside risk when its selling at like 65% of its loan book net of loss provisions and cash minus all liabilities.
Looking for earnings PR soon, most likely tomorrow morning, hopefully with ~.10 GAAP EPS for the Q for .32 for the year, and a dividend announcement. That would put them at about 5 PE, 12% div yield, and price/tangible book around 0.4.