If you could figure this out , what makes you think any Co would buy it with this bad data ?????????
Do you really believe anything you wrote here, "mdan599", or are you just trying to be funny and provocative? You have to know your accusations are outlandish and far-fetched. To think all of those parties (with all of that money at-risk) would conspire as you suggest--you have to be kidding. I do like your optimism that Puma will be back to $250 in a few weeks though, but believe that is dependent on the NSABP FB-7 readout. If it is good, as many hope and expect (and the G3 diarrhea is single digits with Imodium prophylaxis), you may in fact be correct, if not light in your estimation.
WOW, you are incredibly naïve. Do you really think a company can be scammed into spending 7 billion?
Think about the entire situation before shorting. The CEO comes out with a bold faced lie calling data from a failed trial positive and the stk drops only 10%. Shocking in a general context but not for this co with 85% institutional shareholders and 14% insider shareholders who all huddle together to keep the stk up with the goal of scamming some wayward co that does a poor job at vetting puma and buys the co for billions of dollars and ends up with a failed drug.
He gets away with all this because he has the backing of the institutions that hold most of the stk and will not sell the stk unless it looks hopeless for a buyout and the sell-side analysts that incessantly pump the stk to create a perception that the puma drug will bring in billion of dollars and is better than Herceptin when in reality the drug is mediocre at best and the treatment landscape has shifted away from Herceptin as SOC and now includes drugs like Perjeta and Kadcyla. All this is being done to scam a co to acquire puma at outsized valuations. The sell-side analysts are pumping the stk because higher the sale value of puma higher the commissions for bank(s) that manage the sale. The institutions are doing it because they are positioned to reap millions if not billions of dollars if the co is sold now, selling shares could reduce their returns. Obviously, insiders are not selling because they will make millions of dollars with little or no investments if the co gets sold soon as they are expecting it will.
With almost all the stk of puma held by insiders and institutional investors they manage the stk price by trading between themselves and keeping the stk price between 200 and 250 no matter what news comes out. Therefore no matter if the Extenet complete results reporting is delayed by 2 1/2 years since primary endpoint and 1 1/2 year since completion of study, no matter the CEO tells a bold face lie calling failed results positive, the stock loses only 10%, it'll be back at 250 in weeks.
Dude, use your common sense and your brain. Sponsor can start a phase 3 pivotal trial based on what they see from phase 2 at their own expense and risk. FDA will ok if the safety signal is reasonable.
Puma has a decent shot at another successful phase 3 trial in another setting which will add more value to the company.
If neratinib were expected to be better than herceptin, the ORR would have to be close to 100 percent as herceptin was 76 percent. This will not happen on earth. Otherwise puma would have been valued at 50 billion instead of 7 billion.
Your whining without understanding the oncology business makes u look like an ignorant idiot.
All of this information is already priced into the current valuation. So good news holds current price. Bad news sends it lower.
That's also my impression. Looking for an attractive entry point if those naive short sellers knock the price down further - these short sellers have gathered some strength lately.
Good luck with your short position, bwillis1701, but don't forget the NSABP FB-7 readout could print the 2nd week of December (based on recent Street reporting of Principal Investigator's comments). If that data is strong and shows Imodium prophylaxis dramatically lower than non-prohy 30+% historical toxicity (like the recent NSCLC readout that showed neratinib G3 diarrahea decreasing to 8%), the stock could get marked up quickly. The other big, obvious open item is the ExteNET safety and trial details. Since the CEO said in an interview with UBS's Roden a few weeks back he's not losing any sleep over ExteNET safety detail, which is supposed to be unveiled in June at ASCO, unsure what "in question" means. Keep in mind the CEO would be putting his $1+ billion personal equity position in Puma on the line, not to mention his personal freedom, should he be knowingly "misreporting data" as you note. There is no logical reason to believe that is the case as this is a near $7B company, not a $50M biotechnology flier. Do you know Alan Auerbach's history with Cougar? I think you're reading it all wrong. Regardless, talk of a $50 or $10 stock is silly. Neratinib has been in about 30 trials and thousands of patients. In my analysis, sum of reasonably handicapped parts keeps us dramatically higher than that even if a some things go wrong. NDA will filed in early 2015 and neratinib will be approved for it's first indication as planned. That is my expectation. We'll likely see soon enough which thesis is accurate.
I have seen this before. Stock can go from 250 to 50 in weeks. Then the company gets sued for misreporting data and other reporting problems. Then it goes to 10.
Any long position here is wildly unsafe. I see another few huge gaps down. Prepare.
He is likely referring to the p value. And is expecting neratinib to show superiority to Herceptin and becomes the new standard care. That is not gonna happen and no one is expecting that all.
WOW. You are saying the 16.6 months "is not even close" to 16.7 months? I give up. You can continue to believe whatever you like.
Enough, already. Not a lie.
From the PR:
"The primary endpoint of the NEfERTT trial was progression free survival. The results of the trial demonstrated that the progression free survival for the patients who received the combination of paclitaxel plus neratinib was 16.6 months and the progression free survival for the patients who received the combination of paclitaxel plus trastuzumab was 16.7 months (p=0.35). "
Not even close.
"... Alan H. Auerbach, Chief Executive Officer and President. “As expected, there was no statistically significant difference in progression free survival and objective response rate for the paclitaxel plus neratinib arm compared to the paclitaxel plus trastuzumab arm. ""
This was NOT a non-inferiority trial. Fail! Fail! Fail!
Stop pumping this #$%$.
Neuvax /Gale minuplation has galena at bottom as puma over 200.00 go figure Neuvax saves lifes dr peoples said ,Results from p2 neuvax gave 78% less reacurance on breast cancer her2 and 100% on control group with booster shots.Neuvax test in p3 ,Gale pps 1.88 has ton of up side comeing in 2015 .You can buy over 1000 shares for 10 shares of pbyi .When Neuvax gets full approvals expect over 200 a share. Do dd and see for yourself.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
And, as Puma says in its PR: the primary endpoint failed. Failed! Failed! Failed! No amount of spin changes that. Failed!