Adam Says ONTY Great Data - PYBI Is Toxic. LINK
Adam Feuerstein @adamfeuerstein now
$PBYI neratinib extenet study gets mediocre review from discussant. Small benefit but toxic.
$ONTY — I’ll write w/ more detail later but updated ‘380 data look good. More responses, including in the brain + no Gr3 diarrhea
While the drug may get approved based on the trial endpoints(this is by no means a slam dunk either), the minimal benefits along with the severe side effects will not translate to significant revenues even if it does get approved.
The overwhelming negativity from the cancer specialists/ MD’s lamenting its slim benefits and severe side effects indicated they saw little benefit in prescribing the drug.
RBC can beat the “it’s approvable’ drum all they want – if the medical community doesn’t see the benefit, they will not prescribe it (and that’s what we heard during the ASCO presentation and why the stock continues to fall).
A month from now people will be kicking themselves for not selling at 146 – take it and run folks, this thing easily falls (at least) 100 more points by then.
I posted this for another high-flying Bio-tech that's now crashing back to earth. The same scenario is occurring here;
You remember the game show with Howie Mandel….
Those [long] with profits in PBYI are playing the game today. The scenario goes something like this…
Towards the end of the game, the contestant is guaranteed $230,000 to quit or risk it all for an [unrealistically slim] chance for a larger sum. Though most of these people couldn’t save 230,000 in their lifetimes, they’re increasingly swayed by the chants of those around them- urging them to go on, ignoring common sense and allowing greed to cloud their judgement. “My God, I’ll be rich” they muse. So they press on…and then…in an unfathomable instant, as we’ve seen so many many times before - they lose it all.
All that remains is the shock, tears of disbelief, and realization they were fools, along with the faint laughter of those that had been urging them on, and the disgust of those who knew better.
Later when they get home, they try to explain to everyone how ‘this time was going to be different’, and how they were ‘so sure’ they had the million dollar case. The sad fact is - they HAD hit it big, but this time wasn’t different, as they, like so many before them, refused to take what had been given them, thinking it wasn’t enough – it’s never enough.
It’s never different.
Folks – the drug simply failed to meet the wild expectations that drove the stock from up from the 70’s. Don’t let the Wall Street sharks keep your hopes alive while they run for the exit.
Take the money and run.
Looks like people are beginning to wake up:
"Puma Biotech (PBYI): Weaker, because more people are asking the question, "Why would a relatively healthy breast cancer survivor want to take a drug, neratinib, that will make them feel horrible and provide only a small reduction in the risk that that their cancer reappears?" The correct answer is, "Not many," which is a problem for Puma and its $6 billion-plus market valuation.
Analysts are pounding the table because they are in total denial. The market has spoken and PBYI is down $130 from highs. The market hates this drug.
End of July... under $100. There is nothing that is going to rally this stock. Sure, there might be a couple of up days, even in a row. But this thing got way over inflated, and reality is settling in. This is a very mediocre drug with repelling side effects.
Please educate the board and let us know what percentage of FDA approved cancer drugs allow patients to extend lives substantially longer than several months.
The stock is finished, at least in the short term. I'm down big also, around 50%. Sometimes it's best to cut your losses and sell. I'm probably out with the next up tick. There are other stocks out there to make money on. Chalk it up to experience.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Today's open was just off the high of the day, with the stock closing just off it's intra-day low. The stocks inability to rebound despite the analyst's attempting to 'spin' the data is worrisome. There were a significant number of large blocks sold at the bid late in the day(near the lows no less) - that says fund liquidations.
I think the stock is setting up for another round of significant selling tomorrow which will likely continue leading up to the conference.
Based on what we've seen, there's no way the sales expectations will ever come to fruition - this drug simply isn't providing much benefit beyond current treatments(and it has significant side effects to boot). The wild pop last year will have a technical unwinding and bring it down pretty quickly(albeit not in one day).
Guys, if you're long it's time to take the money and run - don't let the street take everything from you. (mark this post)
300 people will attend the event. And they plan to webcast the event as well, Not sure you can say this is shady practice.
Having trouble dumping your shares? Volumes low cause no wants to buy this junk stock