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Canadian National Railway Company Message Board

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  • Reply to

    CNI is now a Triple Bagger for Me

    by banmate7 Sep 18, 2014 10:32 AM

    Ban...Pay no attention to Smoked, he has serious mental issues. The vast majority of his posts are whining about Canada or bashing someone else for posting their thoughts. The rest of the time he is busy answering his own posts, since few will bother to talk to him. Thanks for your example of value investing, I also have held CN since the IC buyout many years ago and have been well rewarded. GL2U

  • Reply to

    Fine then.

    by smokedlobster Sep 17, 2014 5:39 PM

    And what completely predictable consequence do you get when you bend over backwards to pander to whiny children?

    Wade Sobkowich, executive director of the Western Grain Elevator Association, complains that its members aren't getting all the grain cars they order when they say they want them. Never mind that these cars can then sit on the tracks for days or even weeks without anyone doing anything with them with out any consequences.

    If you could call up your local garage, and have them reserve ramp space for you every day...for free.... just in case you decide you might want an oil change, I'd bet a whole bunch of people would start doing that. And just guess what would then happen.....people wouldn't be able to get their cars fixed, garages would soon go out of business, people would be unemployed, vehicles on the roads would become unsafe, blah blah blah.

    Obviously, the Canuckistan government would never dream of imposing such a rule on garages. Because people would notice that, and laugh them out of office for such stupidity and incompetence.

    Doing it to railways doesn't bother anyone in the least.

  • Reply to

    CNI is now a Triple Bagger for Me

    by banmate7 Sep 18, 2014 10:32 AM

    Let me clarify something. TRN is best known as a rail car maker, although it does a bit more. But it is in the railroad and general transportation supply chain. It's not a railroad, as I may have implied.

    When Buffet started buying BNI stock, I looked throughout the rail supply chain. Again, that's how I found CNI and TRN, both surprisingly undervalued. Both had significant alpha, much more than the S&P500. Clearly the PEs have not only reverted to trailing pricing valuations...but are establishing higher ranges.

    Again, I'm fairly confident that North American energy and manufacturing will power a secular bull for the next decade or so. We might get a remaining cyclical bear, but I doubt it will be severe.

    All the best.

  • Reply to

    "Guilty....next!"

    by smokedlobster Sep 18, 2014 9:48 AM

    IN fairness, they really had to fine SOMEONE to justify spending the hundreds of thousands of dollars it cost to put the complete BS piece of extortion...errr, legislation...in place.

    The place doesn't have a military or any search and rescue capablitiy, a 1960's highway that you couldn't ride a horse over, and a health care system that is their leading cause of death...but THIS they can get done.

    What myopic putzes.

  • Reply to

    CNI is now a Triple Bagger for Me

    by banmate7 Sep 18, 2014 10:32 AM

    The point is to buy when cheap. But based on your responses, you clearly don't understand what I mean by the term cheap in this context. It has everything to do with proportionality.

    Anyways, you're clearly not interested in a productive exchange. You're simply trolling. If you have something interesting to say, do so, and say it like a gentleman. Otherwise, like I said, feel free to put me on ignore.

  • Reply to

    CNI is now a Triple Bagger for Me

    by banmate7 Sep 18, 2014 10:32 AM

    So...just hypotheticially.....you know, just for giggles.....if someone else out there...anyone... saw the opportunity much earlier than that, bought it cheaper than you, and much more of it than you could even fathom, how fast might that help you sit back down and shut TF up, Warren Junior?

    Bye putz.

  • Reply to

    CNI is now a Triple Bagger for Me

    by banmate7 Sep 18, 2014 10:32 AM

    If you have any investing expertise, you'd recognize the term "value investing". And apply it to what I demonstrated with concrete details and results. I buy quality companies when they are cheap.

    Meaning I evaluate PE, PEG, PS, PB, & ROIC, especially in the context of average training valuations. When cheap, I buy in heavily. I hold forever, reinvesting dividends along the way. Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffett 101 stuff.

    I bought in 2008 due to Buffett having earlier bought into BNI. Most rails spiked. But CNI was still undervalued. So was TRN, which is nearly a 4x bagger now. And I liked emerging energy and manufacturing trends...in which North America is undergoing a renaissance.

    Right now CNI is expensive. But it might be a high growth machine for a while. I'd buy TRN before CNI on PE alone. Again, CNI probably will sustain a high earnings growth. If you get a 10%+ growth a year at a PE 19, it might be worth getting in...but I prefer value.

    I invested in IBM, AFL, CBI, and DE on value relatively recently.

    Anyways, feel free to put me on ignore. Or you can check my past posts for more details. All the best regardless.

  • Reply to

    CNI is now a Triple Bagger for Me

    by banmate7 Sep 18, 2014 10:32 AM

    Internet bragging is juvenile. Do you know anything about CN that you'd care to share, or should I just go ahead and put you on ignore?

  • CNI shares total price $/share
    14-May-2008 358.39 $10,009.13 $27.93 basis
    1-Jul-2008 1.71 $40.57 $23.70 div
    2-Oct-2008 1.68 $39.18 $23.27 div
    2-Jan-2009 1.82 $34.25 $18.82 div
    1-Apr-2009 2.08 $36.48 $17.52 div
    1-Jul-2009 1.84 $39.87 $21.67 div
    1-Oct-2009 1.78 $43.50 $24.38 div
    4-Jan-2010 1.62 $44.65 $27.49 div
    1-Apr-2010 1.61 $49.30 $30.58 div
    8-Apr-2010 1.62 $49.48 $30.58 div
    1-Jul-2010 1.68 $47.49 $28.30 div
    1-Oct-2010 1.53 $49.14 $32.03 div
    3-Jan-2011 1.51 $51.21 $33.82 div
    1-Apr-2011 1.66 $63.32 $38.05 div
    1-Jul-2011 1.61 $63.92 $39.80 div
    3-Oct-2011 1.82 $59.37 $32.69 div
    3-Jan-2012 1.53 $61.11 $39.99 div
    2-Apr-2012 1.82 $72.28 $39.71 div
    2-Jul-2012 1.69 $70.91 $42.06 div
    1-Oct-2012 1.66 $74.02 $44.59 div
    2-Jan-2013 1.58 $73.42 $46.47 div
    1-Apr-2013 1.66 $82.88 $49.81 div
    1-Jul-2013 1.63 $80.27 $49.12 div
    1-Oct-2013 1.61 $82.47 $51.29 div
    2-Jan-2014 1.42 $80.32 $56.68 div
    1-Apr-2014 1.602 $90.19 $56.29 div
    30-Jun-2014 1.437 $93.64 $65.16 div

    That's a 200.36% total gain, with a CAGR of 18.91%. It crushed the S&P500.

    Value investing works.

  • ......CN and rival Canadian Pacific Railway are required to move a weekly minimum of 536,250 tonnes or about 5,000 rail cars of wheat, canola and other grain, or face fines of up to $100,000 a week. CN chief executive officer Claude Mongeau defended the company's actions on Wednesday, saying there has not been enough demand from grain companies for the railway to supply the 5,000 rail cars. He said that is an indication the backlog that gripped the rail network last winter has been cleared and the railway is having no trouble keeping up with the fall harvest. Mr. Mongeau says, "In fact, to be honest with you, the last several weeks, there has not been enough demand for us to meet the [government order], not enough demand, not enough deliveries in the farm country. ... So we can't move what they don't deliver or what they don't order, and I think that's a good sign."

  • So the Canuckle heads are going to fine CN for not moving enough grain. Of course, the main port grain terminals are still 96% full as of this moment, meaning that grain isn't getting anywhere, and that any faster train delivery would simply result in carloads of grain sitting on the docks, rusting.

    But apparently that's just fine....as in "just fine CN", and keep turning that cowardly blind eye away from the thug unionized stevedore malcontents. Stomping on the "evil railways" is dam fine politickin'!

    RRRSholes.

  • Reply to

    Damnation...

    by smokedlobster Aug 31, 2014 11:44 AM

    Not sure about anybody else but I thumbs down because his post has absolutely nothing to do with CN. But since I'm on ignore he'd never know.

  • Reply to

    Damnation...

    by smokedlobster Aug 31, 2014 11:44 AM

    But I should cut hosers some slack. Before they discovered freedom, people in the Soviet Union all dreamed of one day owning a Lada.

  • Reply to

    Damnation...

    by smokedlobster Aug 31, 2014 11:44 AM

    Yup...judging from the "thumbs downs", I've struck a nerve among the eejots. If there's one thing you aren't allowed to criticize or say a disparaging word about, it's that dead drunk driver's donut chain. Canada is carpeted with their paper coffee cups, and no one even notices. A cult among cults.

  • The takeover of a chain of donut shops has that entire "country" in an uproar, a tizzy, and out of their collective minds...the front page of the Grope and Bail is still little more than Tim Horton's stories a week later.

    But something a tad more relevant to the national economy...oh, I don't know, say the basic means of moving the natural resources that keeps their government and banks solvent? Put the screws to 'em. Who cares?

    We're losing our donuts !?!!

  • Reply to

    Hedge

    by blackoutbuzz Aug 28, 2014 1:16 PM

    I should elaborate... I also hold CNI stock as a core (forever) portfolio position. In addition though, I have additional leverage via CNR.TO deep-ITM leaps call options. These are in a very profitable position right now. As you noted, CNI is relatively expensive on a historical basis, and I am not sure what to do with the leaps calls. As CP appears even more overextended, I was thinking to hedge the CNI calls with CP puts or simply sell some or all of these call options. If there is a correction, CP puts might actually more than offset any loss in the CNR.TO calls. The more I think about this though, the more I am leaning to just selling part of that long call position. Thanks for your comments.

  • Reply to

    Hedge

    by blackoutbuzz Aug 28, 2014 1:16 PM

    BTW: at best, with a stock like CNI, you might want to sell out of the money covered calls. At least to juice your dividends. Earn a bit more income this way.

    That's my 2 cents.

  • Reply to

    Hedge

    by blackoutbuzz Aug 28, 2014 1:16 PM

    I would never use options this way on a stock like CNI. I basically bought in at deep value, am holding forever, reinvesting dividends. This value investing strategy has provided maximum total return and CAGR. Why diminish this with hedges? Or even worse, why lose shares going in and out on volatility?

    In the interest of sharing, here is how I played CNI:

    date shares total price $/share
    14-May-2008 358.39 $10,009.13 $27.93 basis
    1-Jul-2008 1.71 $40.57 $23.70 div
    2-Oct-2008 1.68 $39.18 $23.27 div
    2-Jan-2009 1.82 $34.25 $18.82 div
    1-Apr-2009 2.08 $36.48 $17.52 div
    1-Jul-2009 1.84 $39.87 $21.67 div
    1-Oct-2009 1.78 $43.50 $24.38 div
    4-Jan-2010 1.62 $44.65 $27.49 div
    1-Apr-2010 1.61 $49.30 $30.58 div
    8-Apr-2010 1.62 $49.48 $30.58 div
    1-Jul-2010 1.68 $47.49 $28.30 div
    1-Oct-2010 1.53 $49.14 $32.03 div
    3-Jan-2011 1.51 $51.21 $33.82 div
    1-Apr-2011 1.66 $63.32 $38.05 div
    1-Jul-2011 1.61 $63.92 $39.80 div
    3-Oct-2011 1.82 $59.37 $32.69 div
    3-Jan-2012 1.53 $61.11 $39.99 div
    2-Apr-2012 1.82 $72.28 $39.71 div
    2-Jul-2012 1.69 $70.91 $42.06 div
    1-Oct-2012 1.66 $74.02 $44.59 div
    2-Jan-2013 1.58 $73.42 $46.47 div
    1-Apr-2013 1.66 $82.88 $49.81 div
    1-Jul-2013 1.63 $80.27 $49.12 div
    1-Oct-2013 1.61 $82.47 $51.29 div
    2-Jan-2014 1.42 $80.32 $56.68 div
    1-Apr-2014 1.602 $90.19 $56.29 div
    30-Jun-2014 1.437 $93.64 $65.16 div

    A $10,009.13 basis is now worth $28,770.55. Total return is 187.44%, with 18.26% CAGR. This has CRUSHED the S&P500.

    Mind you, CNI is significantly expensive right now. But I'm convinced energy and manufacturing fundamentals support high growth and this lofty PE. In a greater context, I think such North American fundamentals are transitioning us into a secular bull market...ending the secular bear we've been in since 2000.

    This is a time to hold quality, not go in and out. You can do that with more speculative stocks

  • Thinking of buying CP puts to hedge my CNR long position. Anyone have a better idea?

  • Reply to

    Dear TSB:

    by smokedlobster Aug 26, 2014 1:52 PM

    It's not as simple as that, and I think he's referring to long-haul trucking since intermodal is geared at replacing long-haul transport. I did some searching for trucking stats with a breakdown in long vs. short haul trucking volumes but came up empty handed. If short-haul truck traffic is growing, then either total transport volume is growing or that intermodal+shorthaul is displacing long-haul or both. I don;t expect intermodal to fall except if the economy goes into recession.

CNI
74.30-0.59(-0.79%)Sep 19 4:04 PMEDT

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