Investing is like this. With passage of time you come to a new understanding and the thing to do is to rethink your strategy.
I too believe nextradio maybe a too little too late type of thing and that the seemingly advantage of being free is not so much. I do listen to radio plenty while I work on my computer but there are many choices with no commercials whatsoever. I listen to earbits a lot just as background music. I wonder how they make their money... providing the music I like and zero ads.
BUT strange things happen in any industry and one day this one may too see the light. Not too long ago airlines were broke and Warren Buffett would badmouth them daily as a poor businesses. Yet with the barrel of oil above $100 they are making coin. They will charge passengers for the toilette paper by-the-inch every time taking a poop is in order. All at 10,000 feet. Can radio come up with ways to squeeze money out of customers the way the airline industry did?
Right now I am not liking this investment too much but would wait for a better opportunity to close my position. And sorry for being a downer but as a long I am frustrated. I still think that radio-wise emms has good properties. What is missing? What is really the problem?
Agreed, and I doubt that NextRadio will ever mean much. I mean, how many Millennials (AKA 20-somethings) do you know who really give a rip about radio? Wasn't that way when I was a 20-something. (I'm 59 today.)
I don't listen to EMMS stations (not in the market) but when I do tune in to commercial radio on longish car trips I'm astounded by the ratio of commercial time to content. I'd swear that it's something like 32 minutes of content and 28 minutes or commercials per hour. It is, in my opinion, to the point where it's almost unlistenable. I only do it when what's on NPR doesn't interest me. And the repetition in the commercials suggests to me that they haven't got a very broad advertiser base.
Like newspapers, the problem here is secular and actually may not be fixable. No, I'm not a closet short here to bash. I'm long at prices way below today's level but beginning to believe I made a mistake by not cashing out around the time Longtime did most of his shares.
it would be nice if a bigger company acquired EMMS and Smulyan got relieved of his CEO position. I don't understand why the CEO and CFO get paid so much salary. Last year, CEO got 2.3 MIL and CFO got 3.3 MIL. Seems pretty large considering net income from operations was only 45 MIL. I think by owning this stock, we are betting on future growth for the company. Can they double their net income is the question and they need accelerating revenue growth to do that and currently, revenue growth in this industry is not very strong. The key question is, will next radio be able to help accelerate growth for the industry.
Thanks. I am not sure how much to trust a quantitative approach as those guys have. My best investments have been investing on ONE guy. That ceo that is committed to equity and will leave no stone unturned. Now, I think Smuylan is a far cry of the Henry Singleton's of this world. No doubt he is shrewd. No doubt he understands his field. But he is not for equity, just for himself. So I regret having built a large stake here. Truth is in the world of microcaps and even small caps there are very very few Singleton's. I had great success with Chisholm at FTK. The way he dealt with equity and in particular common equity in the turnaround always showed enormous support for common shares. I was glad I was part of the building/resurgence of that company. I am disappointed on Smuylan. My view is that understanding companies' books is important and whether they show a promising business or not what really, really matters is what the CEO is made of.
the IWC index has been such a good performer all throughout last couple years. It looks like it peaked in March, right when the insiders sold a lot of stock. during last conference call, the radio local market revenue was down for the industry so maybe that signals weakness. If GDP grows, that would signal the economy is getting stronger and i would expect revenue to increase. I agree that GDP is likely to improve in next couple quarters. I am going to listen to the Cumulus Media conference call which is on Aug 6th. I want to see how they perceive the radio broadcasting industry and want to see if they mention anything about growth due to the next radio initiative. I have a feeling they will be very bullish on the industry.
I did see that there was an enterprise value investment portfolio that sold EMMS on 7/15. They had a 1.2% portfolio allocation and sold it so they owned nothing. If you click the market pulse link underneath the message board link on yahoo finance, you'll see that.
To some -or great- extent it trades with the IWC index. The microcaps that were badmouth by Yellen today. So unless there is some good news in the horizon, insider purchases or a move by the CEO this is either dead money as LTF said or something worse.
On the other hand, Smuylan said EMMS trades as the GDP does and GDP is about to improve markedly in the next few quarters. If so, will they have any pricing power to improve margins? I am stuck with my position and buyers are out of sight. Dam it.
i figure the risk to the downside out ways the potential gains to the upside. I think the chance of a surge higher here is not good. It seems like it is more probable that the stock goes lower.
They stopped taking live questions, several quarters back, after I "manhandled" them with intense questioning about the LA radio station that was being sold to the Mexican outfit. I fully suspect that was direct cause of their going to "written questions only."
I retain a modest position here....about 2% of portfolio. (At one time this was a 10%+ holding for me.) Right now, I'm a seller at $3.25-3.50, and a buyer at $2.65 and down. I didn't like all the insider selling at few months ago, in the $3's. They apparently knew things were going to be treading water for a while. This looks like dead money at $2.65-2.95.
i think it is valuable to the consumer, or at least i personally find it valuable but i'm not really sure on how much revenue growth it can deliver. Is it going to be in every cell phone and if so, how can you get revenue growth out of that?
The CEO owns a big % of the company so he has some incentive to deliver to the shareholders. I do know that he got paid a very large salary last year, so that could be another reason the CEO is disliked so much. Putting all that aside, I think the company is generating good cash flow which makes the stock look cheap based on the current price. It would be nice to know if other radio broadcasting companies are talking about next radio because if it is going to be successful, all the broadcasters will be benefiting. Anyone ever hear
another company mention it? I had always thought EMMS would benefit the most from it because they cleaned up their balance sheet and got rid of a lot of debt that was owed. With good future cash flows i would think they could pay down more debt and then possible pay a dividend or buy back stock all of which would increase shareholder value in the future. I believe you have to look at the industry as a whole and if you think radio broadcasting industry is an attractive investment, EMMS should be in a good position to capitalize on that. Historically, the industry has been out of favor with investors so you can't really blame the poor stock activity all on the greedy CEO.
Well... I guess I couldn't contain my frustration. Yes, three version to prevent yahoo censorship but I see they don't censor the word masturbate. Considering the bonuses paid "for strong operating performance" yet nothing comes our way you are correct. CEO is no idiot.
He, his company and the industry may be treading water but I do not think that is the real issue. In my view, the issue here is he talks sweet while he doesn't give a dam for creating shareholder value. NextRadio will never deliver the strong profits he envisions some day into the future.
He simply does not want to deal with shareholders. Thus, the staged conference calls where everything is bright. In other words, he is telling you to #$%$ off.
You used three different versions of the word 'masturbate' in this post and managed to misspell each of them. That, along with your use of the word 'idiot,' is my biggest disagreement with you. He isn't an idiot, but he does seem to be treading water. I think terrestrial radio is in much the same situation as newspapers, frankly. I know from his previous posts that Longtime keeps an eye on the radio biz -- or used to. Maybe he'll be along with his take.
This idiot ceo continues to mastirbate his ego in each and every call with his massively cutting edge performance while never delivering to his shareholders. Everybody is down except his marvelous emms that navigates gracefully through extremely challenging and tough times. Yet, the stock has cratered and stays down. No matter how much amount of ego masterbating he injects into his speech. Man up Smuylan and face your shareholders LIVE and stop trying to miracously transform the Universe with your johnny-come-late schemes! What an idiot.
The only thing he can show is a "research" showing how transformational this nextradio will one day be during this "landmark" quarter that has beaten all possible benchmarks.
Where are the higher revenues (flat ex-purchases) and the accelerating profits?
YOU ARE A FAKE.
There is simply NO buying. Shareholders take advantage of rallies to unload from the microcaps. That is why we see the indexes marching higher while the microcaps go nowhere or go lower. It's horrible.