You must a mathematician. I accept your point. The 108,000 are something like "votes" against the stock going higher. There are many reasons, previously identified, that suggest the stock will be going a lot higher soon. Noteworthy is the ease in which it made a 52 week high. There is not much supply between the present price level and $7 and there is little supply at $7. I take it for granted that the stock will be at least $7 by the end of 2015 and, instead, try to focus on the fundamental valuation metrics of the stock based on income, the rate of growth of income and revenue, and industry factors. With the more accelerated rate of growth of revenue and income, I think the PE ratio will expand. I have no feel for the valuation at this time, but I do think that it should hit the $7 value sometime this year. The value should be higher than $7. Unfortunately, I think that one of the cyber security stocks will cut a deal with management on a buy-out. I would prefer that not happen, but I believe it will happen. But back to my main point, any investor selling stock at this level is making a dumb mistake, especially with news of a vast expansion of distribution channels. To the contrary, stock should be accumulated now. Once the stock breaks over $5 per share, the stock will quickly shoot to the $7 level because of the added leverage. I also think there will be new initial stock coverage by one or more investment firms that will attract the active traders, and that will also spike the stock. Right now I think the stock is worth more than $7 per share, but I do not know if it is a $10, $15, or $20 stock; that remains to be seen. The internet security sector alone will float the stock higher as investors are added to this hot sector. Most of the talking points for this stock are apparent and sales of this stock, especially before 1Q2015 earnings report are, frankly, stupid (in my very humble opinion).
Are you one of the 108,000?
My focus is that the industry is at its inception. The demand for internet security is getting large investments.
There is presently constant attention to this sector. And GSB, will grow with the market because the volume of business will correspondingly increase. It is nice seen growth in a growth sector. The industry is embryonic.
It will grow to be a giant.
Alvin, why don't you do a good article for stock twits and twit that link? You can join and contribute to stockt wits in 5 minutes. You know, there's a guy eldoctoro (S Boney) who is one of the latest GSB watchers. He's only got a few followers and look how much he posts. Looks like he lives on that thing. 3,585 ideas. 9 followers. That's a lot of time with ideas for so few followers, if you ask me.
You have a lot more to contribute. You could also consider contributing to The Street, (Cramer's), as they are taking new writers on. Just a thought or two.
I was thinking ... we gave a lot of good info the last 24 hours on GSB and the stock has tiny volume, so it seems to mean we're preaching to the choir here and need a larger audience and let our little stream flow into some of the big rivers.
Here's another good point by FBR Capital's Ives, that Now it's all about proactively protecting firewalls, and that's why the next-gen firewall market has exploded. When you look at the business products of Globalscape, this is one good reason Globalscape has highlighted their DMZ Gateway in recent weeks, months. It's definitely a next gen firewall. No doubt about that. You can see it on the site under the Business tab, the second option, just after Enhanced File Transfer. DMZ Gateway.
It would be a smart move to notice who our largest, top 20 investment firms are, if you ever want to look for an investment vehicle provided by a sharp advisor. It's apparent that the funds in Globalscape are ahead of the curve of the rest of the market. They were savvy to GSB way before the rest of the market is still waking up, asleep, waiting for their first coffee. CNBC would really help the country by focusing more on this and I am serious about them interviewing CEO James Bindseil. He's been in enough high-profile articles like USA Today, for just one, for them to appreciate him as a commentator on cybersecurity. And that would ramp up sales for them, too, no? I think so.
This is a really nice validation of our investment, guys.
From the CNBC article: The best news of all is that most companies still have woefully outdated cybersecurity infrastructure. That means the next-gen cybersecurity boom is still in its early innings.
Man, somebody in the mainstream media finally got it. In fact, somebodies and some station! Speaking of channels, CNBC has long been a favorite channel of investors, shareholders.
Hey, it's high time CNBC interviewed Globalscape's CEO... ! Anybody want to call and set that up with their bookers?
This quote from today's CNBC article you referenced states the same point you are making:
Cybersecurity stocks have been an underinvested tech theme relative to other tech trends, and analysts say it runs counter to the sales opportunity for these companies.
Gad to see Globalscape's cybersecurity industry getting some much needed attention on this fact. "And analysts say ...." Hence, this is playing ,,, Reveille ... a bugle call, trumpet call or pipes call most often associated with the military; it is chiefly used to wake military personnel at sunrise
Nice find, catch, btw.
It is the security internet sector. I have been pounding the table that cloud used with 1/2 a brain will want server backup. Add to that is the fact that the could industry is at its inception and has weaknesses.
Being in a high growth sector, at the inception of that growth sector (compared where it will be in 10 years), is a great place to grow value.
THE ANSWER: "A rising tide lifts all ships." The massive money to be dedicated to this industry will benefit GSB.
the 10-k report for 2014 will be a shadow of the 10-k for 2015. My focus is totally on what is ahead, not what has been in the past. To make the point, if GSB can grow its revenue by a multiple of 2, 3, or 4? That is my focus - not what it did in 2014. The news released about new marketing opportunities is more important than 2014 operations.
Alvin - if history repeats itself, CEO should release Q1 10K by the end of the first week of May or possibly the second week of May. He likes to get good news out to the market faster than CEO Robinson did or even CEO Poole.
It is a given fact that the comparison with 1Q2014 will be stronger than anticipated because there has been ongoing progress in developing new sales, GLOBALLY. It takes time to develop or expand those markets, and for that reason the balance of 2015 will reflect those new sources of revenue.
The "window" for these new sources of revenue will be known at the time of the earnings conference.
I think that 1Q2015 report will be significant. It appears that the new markets will significantly improve stock valuation. The market loves high growth rates; the new market channels have been identified. That is why it is safe to add to current positions. Where is there another company where the new markets are identified before earnings are reported? This stock has a small following. When other investors wake up to this situation, you have predictable stock appreciation. With this thin float, guess what that does to the stock when the demand ramps up? If anyone knows about any comparable situation where new markets have been identified, post it here. Stock appreciation is a certainty. The only debatable issue is at what price will it level off? I do not know; but I would not be surprised to see the stock move past $7 this year. To repeat a point, the 1Q2015 conference will be illuminating on the new GSB markets and the revenue expected from those markets.
We will know very soon if the stock can be expected to move past $7 per share this year. In statistical analysis, a "sample" is evidence of the whole. That is my point.
Quarterly bookings in the 4th quarter had to be much higher than 24% in order for the total 2014's bookings to average 24% growth. They were flat the prior year, basically, we know. We also know the bookings are building steadily quarter by quarter. It's important to recognize that the company's statement of 24% growth in bookings was for total bookings for the year 2014, not the 4th quarter. Since it's increasing quarterly, simple math & statistical correlations show it HAS TO BE way more than 24% during the 4th quarter 2014. It ramped up in Q1, some more in Q2, some more in Q3 with strong additions to resellers and distributors partners, and finally voila we have 4th quarter even more things going on and shifting gears to more selling by channel partners who have completed Globalscape product certifications. All right, Mama! That's all right!
There are multiple factors in the 1st Q report that will have a dynamic effect on the stock: 1) strong improvement from the 1st Q 2014; 2) reports on the new channels of distribution 3) the contributions to revenue from the new channels 4) results from the WorkSpaces software 5) other software development; new coverage and the publicity that goes with it. The fact is that we know that sales and revenue and the prospect for larger sales and revenue will stampede the stock. The only issue is: how far?
For the sake of making a point: is it reasonable to assume that revenue will increase by 25% (an arbitrary number)? [Not too arbitrary since booking jumped 24% for the year, and you can rightly assume that the percentage for total bookings grew more each quarter such that Q4 2014 had the highest bookings of any quarter in 2014 or any other year. If it was 10-20-30-40% Q1-Q4 = 25% avg.]
That would not surprise me. What impact would that have on the stock price? My view is that the stock can easily blow by $5 per share within the next two months. Given the data we have seen in connection with the very strong progress in marketing, it is reasonable to think of the impact of that new revenue (or its prospects) on net income and, accordingly, the stock price. Two months from now, you will wish you had more shares of this stock. Given the stock action yesterday, I think we will see $7+ before the end of 2015.
The correction today had light volume. I saw 100 shares push the stock down 4 cents. Basing out for the next 5 or 6 weeks would be constructive.
This is a very rare opportunity to have insight into significant and successful marketing. We were given that insight. For that reason we KNOW that there will be substantial increases in revenue and net income. Just a guess, but with a lot more income, it would not surprise me if the dividend payout increases. I also think their profit margins will increase because their current marketing success was at a nominal cost.
You mentioned in this thread, "For the sake of making a point: is it reasonable to assume that revenue will increase by 25% (an arbitrary number)? That would not surprise me." I wanted to point out that 25% revenue growth is not an arbitrarily picked number by anyone that would use it due to the fact that the company released their booking information as 24% growth in Q4 2014. Their total bookings and new client bookings are very strong ...:
24% year-over-year growth
In 2014, we had $29.9 million in bookings which is the highest ever for GlobalSCAPE and we had 24% year-over-year growth in total bookings and 21% year-over-year growth for new client bookings.
-- CEO & Pres James Bindseil, 4th Quarter Conf Call, February 5th, 2015
PS: You packed a lot of info into one paragraph man!