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Outerwall Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Last Note from a Long-time OUTR Bull

    by wwtimewarp2000 Dec 15, 2014 3:25 PM

    Part 2
    One Bull argument and interesting story might be ecoATM. It takes your old phone and gives you cash. But I can’t see why someone like EBAY or AMZN can't automate the same process and give consumers MORE virtual currency. I mean, phone companies already do this trade-in stuff and are ramping it up with buyout offers this holiday season. So this business segment doesn’t warrant a significant enough offset (and then some) necessary to withstand a strong long-term vision. There’s also a way it could help finally put GME out of its misery. But they’ve yet to ramp up the VG segment of their business in general, so I don’t see them as having much of a VG plan at all, let alone one strong enough to try to take on this competitive space. They clearly do not have the experience level to do this. So color me unexcited all around on ecoATM.

    The WW’s still enjoy a Redbox many-a-week or weekend. But even I can see those days as now being numbered. The Deals that we’re offered nowadays are more profit-seeking than genuine as they once were. And that is putting the psychological nail in the coffin of a once-great brand builder. Look, I’m not saying the stock is going to $10 overnight. But the Redbox future that once burned bright is now dim. And as I reflect on the actions of management over the past year, I get the impression they are actions of a team that believes they are sitting on a sinking ship. Or worse, don’t know they even hit an iceberg. It’s not quite buckets on a sinking cruiseliner just yet. But stocks fall much faster than they go up. And this is the type of story you won’t necessarily predict the precise top on. You just know that barring company redirection, it is coming sometime soon. So you take the opportunity to step aside and see if the company somehow changes its ways to get back on track. Heck, for as lauded as Reed Hastings is, even he has had bouts of getting off track and witnessed his stock getting crushed as a result.

    GLTA. It has been fun.

  • Some of you may remember me as the Bull that owned the stock years ago from $25-30, and very likely single-handedly caused the algo-spamming posters that once ruined this very yahoo thread with my ‘Truth’ posts. You see, they got blown out of the water. We did not. But for as great of a ride we have enjoyed to the upside backed by real earnings growth and dumb market luck, it pains me to write that I’m afraid those famous Bears with ‘The End of the DVD’ calls some 5 YEARS TOO SOON will now be proven correct. JC will finally have his day in the sun.

    Why have I so drastically shifted sides for an argument that Bulls and Bears alike have seen coming for years. It’s simple. The primary difference is in the psychological detail of the price. Redbox recently upped their rental price to $1.50. You might say, who cares vs $1.30. It’s only 20c. The reality is, a large part of the Redbox population holds a movie for 2 nights. That’s $3. You can conveniently rent that same new movie on just about any device nowadays, not just your PPV channels, for about $5. Still a rental savings of $2 but add in that gas prices at the pump are significantly lower than what they used to be and here to stay, and a large part of that cohort will start to measure the convenience-factor as worth the switch. And so renting movies at The Box finally goes the way of the dinosaur.

    Worst of all, they lost the streaming partnership with VZ and with it went the Next Legs to this potential story. I get it. It’s outside their business of building automated machines. And it’s a tall order to take on the likes of NFLX. But this business was 85% of the story. It deserves everything this company can throw at it to maintain relevance. Otherwise you’re left with 15% of the stock on the business that remains. And unless they have a non-movie automated machine hit we don’t know about, that says the stock is worth $10.
    [cont.]

  • Lame? Good grief.

  • Reply to

    Setting up a SELL order

    by mr.mcgoo79 Nov 7, 2014 1:06 PM

    Great!....nice trade. Have you or are you planning to re-analyze the fair market value given the new rental price?

  • That worked......63.56 to 73.33 in one day; close enough. Judging by the "thumbs down", some of the short interest is represented on this discussion board. I short myself, but not when the tape is saying to buy. Better luck on your next trade.

  • OUTR is lame guys. Turn to Ultimate Stock Alerts (have a look online) for something

    better

  • @Dvds_are_Dead. This is the last time I will reference this post. But I asked you to mark this one down if we wanted to keep score. Well, the '$70s possibly more by year end' is here my friend. Hope you closed your short position before this all happened.

    Now will you be big enough to admit I was right in this case?
    Ball is in your court now.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    85 BY DEC 12

    by cstr_defender Oct 31, 2014 12:27 PM

    sewfg ewr

  • Reply to

    BEST ENTERTAINMEBT STOCK IN THE MARKET

    by cstr_defender Oct 31, 2014 12:18 PM

    srg wser

  • Reply to

    Setting up a SELL order

    by mr.mcgoo79 Nov 7, 2014 1:06 PM

    good call. I ended up canceling my sell order when it hit resistance at $64. Woke up this morning to a pleasant surprise. I just sold at $68.50.
    I believe you that it may have room to run from here even. But I have quite a good profit at this point.

    thanks for the feedback on my post. you have my thumbs up. happy trading.

  • Reply to

    Setting up a SELL order

    by mr.mcgoo79 Nov 7, 2014 1:06 PM

    With all due respect for you and fair value, I believe selling at $65 would be exceedingly premature and I'm not even long yet. You got in when the trading range began, late July, so you know how long it has been building cause for either lower or higher prices. The matter was settled with the sign of strength on Oct 31st, the right hand side of the trading range. The price has held the highs indicating that the smart money is absorbing all sellers in a pattern that the more mechanically-minded technical traders recognize as a bull flag. The trading range going back to July has a breadth of $10. Add that to the top of the range, 62 + 10 = $72 for what would be a simple measured move. $73 is the swing high. And if it can take out $73, then $109 is game longer term. At your proposed selling price of $65 the buyers will be lined up. There is nothing, no resistance, between $64.33 and $73.

  • Just window shopping as this one came up on a screen of highly shorted stocks. This was in a trading range (TR) going back to late July between about $52 and $62. It had supply (selling) in the background coming into the TR so you'd have to assume the downtrend would continue unless proven otherwise, until a sign of strength presented itself in the right-hand side of the TR........which it did on Oct 31st. Demand has now proven itself, therefore it does not need high volume to move higher. The 200day SMA is coincidentally about the same level as the supply bar of June 18, 2014. That bar has a high of 64.33. Once the price gets above that bar it will likely explode to the upside and attack the swing highs of May at about $73. Right now the big players are absorbing sellers (buying at resistance); holding it up in the upper range of the demand bar, until the funds and specs are confident to move it up above 64.33 at which time the shorts (37% of float by last count) will become discouraged and be forced to buy causing the price to rise rapidly. I think I've just talked myself into picking up some shares.

  • To all legitimate posters on this board (not the buffoons making the blockbuster comparisons and giving everyone 10 thumbs down). Look back at my late Jul posts here. I stuck my neck out and said in 3-6 months we would see a return to fair valuation between 65-70.
    Here we are at 64 knocking on that door.
    Again for anyone who still cares here, I will disclose that I'm setting a SELL order up at $65 and will happily take my money from this trade and move on. 3 months, 15%+ profit....i'm happy with that. Not my best trade, but not my worst.

    Happy trading everyone.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Looks like this is exactly what is happening, 3-6 months later as predicted. FYI to every poster here who actually cares, I'm setting up a sell order at $65. We may see 70 but i won't be around to see it.
    I made my money and I'm moving on.

  • yes stocks go up....stocks go down.

    but stocks eventually return to fair valuation as long as cash flow is present.
    that is what is happening with outr. don't be bitter you didn't buy in the low 50s.

  • You forgot to mention the part where it went from 62 to 51 in September.

  • you forgot the part where you yelled at the kids to get off your lawn...

  • Yawn. Yes, the sky is falling....meanwhile OUTR has gone from 54 to 62...and climbing.

  • Exactly? The pure garbage being released these last 2 yrs are really going to hurt the rental biz in every way. Look at all the "coming attractions" on the billboards of your local theaters. All no name actors! Does anyone else catch this!!! Its like with the top stars like Pacino, Dinero, Nick Nolte, Streep, Eric Roberts Mickey Rourke,etc....they cant seem to get it that saving money with mediocre actors doesnt make up FOR LOUSY SCRIPT WRITING! What is this...if a movie doesnt have tarrantino, francis ford coppolla, tribeca(dinero),scorsese, etc....you mean we cant replace this talent pool!?????? Forget the problem with DVD'S. ....90% OF THE MOVIES released this whole year I wouldnt watch if they stremed them in gold out of my behind. Look at the handwriting on the wall...NFLX is way off its highs also. Id rather watch cassettes but good quality movies than all thias science fiction, and vampire nonsense we have today. No wonder they made The Sopranos out to be God. There isnt anything better to keep a human brain interested than criminals doing their thing. Thats just beautiful. (eyes roll) I say 1st half of 2015 wil be brutal for the whole movie industry. Maybe brick and morter stores will come back "if" they can come up with a good gimmick. I miss em. It got yuh out of the house and maybe you could even actually talk to a real person. People need that. Watch NFLX or redbox start opening stores. ha!

    Sentiment: Hold

OUTR
72.88-2.00(-2.67%)Dec 24 12:59 PMEST

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