so go buy netflix and pay that outrageous multiple for the growth. I can't stomach the ride. Notice how OUTR was getting bought up when the market was scared? that is because it offers value at these levels. Same with the OUTR director buying shares on the open market.
Crazy idea, you can go long Netflix and not have to short OUTR
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yes, but even you had to laugh when the company pointed to of all things as 'opened emails' as a positive metric. What matters was revenue and it is slipping. If they were not buying back stock and shuttering redboxes, the numbers would be even worse.
that's great. why don't you go post it on the Netflix message board??
RedBox stock is a totally different animal at this point.
What do you mean they did not scale down enough last quarter? They have more data/facts/metrics for each kiosk that they reveal in filings so I don't feel comfortable second guessing them on that. They have said they will downsize and continue to optimize their remaining kiosks.
Yeah the guidance was lowered - primarily because they raised an additional amount of money which increased interest costs. But still doesn't change the fact that it's ridiculously cheap at these levels (even assuming ecoATM is a dud). Netflix isn't really a good comp because there are ZERO recent/fresh titles there. A better comp is Amazon and iTunes.
Speaking of Amazon and iTunes, there was a question on the conference call about that - "do you see VOD pricing going up or down?" and CEO basically said that studios want to maintain fat margins so he sees the pricing going up rather than down.
Again, cheap on P/FCF basis with a proven business model with pricing power is what makes it attractive for me. Don't get me wrong though - you can make money being short and long and I'm not long because I'm in love with Outerwall, I'm long only because the risk/reward is so damn attractive in being long, as opposed to being short.
Give consumers unlimited online access to original programming, TV shows and recent movies for $9 a month and you’ve got market driver — and winner.
That’s the finding of a new Strategy Analytics report that projects the North American over-the-top video market will grow 21% this year to $10.7 billion in revenue. Revenue is forecast to double between 2013 and 2019 to $18 billion. Of course, North America is home to OTT video market leaders Netflix, Amazon Prime Instant Video and Hulu Plus.
Well they did not scale down enough for the last quarter, I am sure you saw the results along with lowered yearend guidance. Now they are once again forced to test higher pricing in the hopes that will save a declining revenue model. Streaming continues to become more mainstream and continues to grow as can be seen by the results that Netflix produced in the same quarter.
I don't understand why you keep comparing it to blockbuster. Redbox does NOT have fixed costs like Blockbuster - no stores, no employees to staff each store, etc. Redbox has a lean operating model that can be scaled down to accommodate any declines without imploding. There's no competition and the masses don't have a meaningful alternative that provides them with cheap movies at the 1.2-1.5 per night.
Any other concerns?
5 - 7 years? Wall Street will start their punishment long before redbox ends. See stock history of both Blockbuster and Movie Gallery/Hollywood Video for more informed information.
The bottom will be around 51. They are blaming Hollywood for not having enough movies. They need to get some exclusive deals with HBO and Showtime. If they raise the price on rental they are going to really piss people of . People might start going to Netflix.
well current earnings were about what I expected but 3rd quarter guidance was down a bit yoy and 4th quarter no better. It is based on a somewhat weaker yoy film slate for the 3rd quarter too(if you exclude the last day of the quarter) and current box office is certainly a lot weaker than last summer so that should hit 4th quarter earnings. Redbox will decline but so far it seems pretty gradual. However at 5x cash flow, thats all you need.
yes this forum is notorious for having a single poster with 10 accounts who gives himself thumbs ups and anyone disagree with his short position 10 thumbs downs.
i agree, but that shows you how baked into the stock price this awful earnings report was. All it needs is the slightest catalyst now or even just someone willing to buy a few 100k shares and we will snap upwards.
Held up good today because of the guidance. Making lots of money. You can't make money if you have weak hands and sell because it drops a few bucks.
Sentiment: Strong Buy