Yeah, some guru posted an article the day this number came out saying it was going to be one of the most important numbers in history and it would show how we're about to have an inflation explosion. Haven't heard from him since.
Per today’s ECI data, the quarterly increase in US wages was just 0.2%, the weakest wage increase since records began in 1982. Why might this be happening, when the media keeps telling us the employment data is so “strong”? Simple. The labor participation rate remains at a 38-year low, so there is no wage pressure at the margins. Also, the majority of jobs being created are low-paying jobs in the service sectors, while we are losing high-paying jobs in the manufacturing and oil sectors. But I thought everything was awesome? Lol…
seems to me that you believe anything ANYONE says that makes a case for increased i8nt rates....the fundamentals indicate a softening economy, and you want the fed to create a economic crisis just to prove or attain your point. Very myopic! Meronkov's analysis has been real good for some time...and the entire worlds economy is softening as well.. ^ yrs we heard rates will go up....and we won't see it this yr neither!
I think next week will be an exception. Also, if you're sure about the trade, why not just buy puts on TLT.
I'm the biggest Treasury bull on the internets, but if you ever wanted to short Treasurys or buy TBT (the double inverse bond fund), today would probably be a good day to do it. Rates shot up during the first week of almost every month this year (except January). I'm not a short-term trader, so I'm not inclined to do it, but it is tempting...
The BIS is exactly right, but it should have been warning about this years ago. It didn't, and in fact for years it encouraged central banks to maintain lower rates. So now the damage has been done. Here’s what Lacy Hunt had to say about the matter in his 4Q 2014 report for Hoisington (describing the economic performance he expected in 2015):
“Conditions will be sufficiently lackluster that the Federal Reserve will have little choice in their overused bag of tricks but to stand pat and watch their previous mistakes filter through to worsening economic conditions.” Importantly, he went on to conclude: “Interest rates will of course be volatile during the year as expectations shift, yet the low inflationary environment will bring about new lows in yields in 2015 in the intermediate- and long-term maturities of U.S. Treasury securities.”
.. "the annual report from the BIS — the Bureau for International Settlements — says it best. The BIS is after all the central banks’ central banker, and if there be a shift in the “feed a fever” zero interest rate policy of the Fed and other central banks, perhaps it would be logically introduced here first. The BIS emphatically avers that there are substantial medium term costs of “persistent ultra-low interest rates”. Such rates they claim, “sap banks’ interest margins…cause pervasive mispricing in financial markets…threaten the solvency of insurance companies and pension funds…and as a result test technical, economic, legal and even political boundaries.” Greece is not specifically mentioned, nor the roller coaster ride of Chinese equity markets, nor the rising illiquidity of global high yield bond markets, nor the…well a reader should get the point. Low interest rates may not cure a fever — they may in fact raise a patient’s temperature to life threatening status. "
Yes because the long term rates are manipulated by big money. The central banks hold most of the outstanding bonds so the float or bonds available for sale are very few and so the price can be manipulated.
lol, my track record on interest rates over the past two years is better than Greenspan's, and I know you know that. :)
From 1870 to the late 1990’s, real GDP growth grew by 3.7% annually. Scholarly studies published in just the last few years document that economic growth slows dramatically when combined debt (public plus private) of a country exceeds 275% of GDP. The US breached this significant debt threshold in the year 2000 (which has since climbed to the current 345% of GDP). Part of the Fed’s “solution” to the financial crisis in 2008-09 was to encourage even more debt, thus prolonging the malaise. In response to today’s revisions to the GDP data from the past several years, the Wall Street Journal observed “the economic expansion – already the worst on record since World War II – is weaker than previously thought…”
The Fed’s approach fundamentally ignored the brilliant insight of Austrian economist Eugen Bohm-Bawerk that debt is future consumption denied. You can’t solve a debt problem with more debt…
The BEA’s first estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter came in today at 2.3%, again remarkably close to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of 2.4%. That’s two quarters in a row in which the GDPNow forecast fell within one-tenth of a percentage point of the BEA number, far more accurate than any Wall Street forecaster that I know of. Importantly, though, the Nowcast did not really provide an accurate picture until it had at least two months of data, but by early this month one would have had a good ballpark estimate of the actual number.
FB calls are at $130,000 profit...lets see how much of that profit i am going to lose today. Bought near $4s they were at $17 yesterday
Right. Because the current rate of debt accumulation is not fast enough, we need to borrow more and faster now by issuing more IOU's. Once we get the proceeds from the sale, the politicians in Washington can then instantly spend it on anything and everything they want, then issue more IOU's when the money runs out. What could possibly happen if a country does this?
what the hell does he know about interest rates ? he has no experience ! :))
ask merenkov which they will go.