Tim, Steve and the other Symbol Mafia cohorts, it's memorial day weekend. It's a great time to retire and enjoy the summer - you should consider it this weekend.
If you don't exit soon your exit will be selected for you! I mean we will still say it's for personal reasons or because you want to explore new opportunities.
2/3rds of the way through the quarter and let's just say it's not going to plan, internal, external, macro, micro, or any which way you cut it. 600K to 1M RSU's are still worth something but by the end of the year that may not be true.
I guess someone is playing chart psycology and fool me to buy? NO WAY! I don't want to be a bagholder. Forget technical and look at fundamental instead.
Timinator and Steve-O - here is another example of how the management team hasn't ever faced reality.
The market turned around in 2010 but Monster didn't even with Hotjobs. Now that you are half the size you were and the others are huge (linkedin was 154M in revenue back then) it's only going to get worse. See you guys never understood the network effect which linkedin perfected with the passive candidate that you (Sal) didn't believe in. It take far more than hope and cherry picking metrics to turn around the downward momentum that has been there for years. Give up and enjoy your retirement.
Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q4 Growth M Q4 Growth %
Monster 255.1 261.4 269.7 259.1 250 -5.1 -2%
Careerbuilder 140.6 157.6 173.4 173.9 165.8 25.2 18%
Linkedin 81.7 93.9 121 139.5 154 72.3 88%
Dice 37.9 40 44.9 46.8 48.3 10.4 27%
Total 515.3 552.9 609 619.3 618.1 102.8 17%
Dice and Linkedin are estimates for q4/11 based on guidance as they have not reported yet.
Sal and team please verify these numbers. The first step in solving a problem is to admit you have a problem, and you have a problem.
Clearly Linkedin is killing it but you can see the market grew by slightly over $100M and MWW went down $5M so it lost market share.
Also note that MWW includes hot jobs in all these quarters - the bump you've seen YoY for the last 12 months has been because of Hotjobs. But even with Hotjobs they are down $5M year over year.
according to morningstar
Year - Monster - SP&500
2006 - 36.6 - 16.8 (Sal Chairman)
2007 - 28.7 - 16.5 (Sal CEO)
2008 - 12.9 - 10.9
2009 - 108.7 - 18.6
2010 - ZERO (negative earnings) - 15.5
2011 - 22.6 - 13.7
2012 - 11.0 - 15.0 (BEAT)
2013 - 43.5 - 18.6
2014 - ZERO (negative earnings) - 18.6
2015 - ZERO (negative earnings) - 19.0
TTM - 52.2 - 18.8
According to that it's overvalued by more than 2.X which means stock should be in the $1.xx range by the end of the year. In any given moment or quarter you can find a metric that support the growth story - they do it every time on the earnings call - so and so country is good or this market segment. But over time and in the aggregate it's continued to go down. They have yet to find a metric that consistently shows a growth story which is why they change it all the time.
The company is 20+ years old you don't use EBITDA, you don't use Adjusted EBITDA, you don't use Cash EBITDA, you don't use pro forma, you report real (GAAP) net income and that's what the market bases the valuation on and the senior management can't understand that.
They sold a division last year - actually the other half that they sold the year before. It was almost all of the earnings last year. They did about $0.05 last year but had over $0.70 from the sale so if you use just the reported number it looks good at 3+ but that's a one time event it's not what they really did. Some sites report net income (minus 1 time events) and others just report whatever the number is.
So both numbers are accurate depending on how you slice it...if you are a seller or monster management then use the 3+ number if you are a buyer the 50+ is generous considering they haven't made any money the previous 2 years.
You are not the first to come here thinking that you found a gem. History shows you won't stick around long and the longer you stay the more money you will lose. Normal metrics don't apply to a company like this because they have been restructuring and selling and creatively adjusting the financials for nearly a decade now. IF it pops in the short term sell and move one - no need to thank me.
Today's volume: 3,280,848 double the Avg Vol (3m) 1,497,210.
In for 10,000 shares (long) at 2.49. It's a small position, but I need to
keep powder dry. Someone (or something) just made a huge Buy order at 3.30pm at 2.53/shr.
Sumpthin funny is going on, however, all my dials are pointing to a big Dow down tomorrow.
Within 2 pennies of all time intraday low....gonna be another all time close low today! You are killing Tim - can you change your ring tone please!
Shawty had them Apple Bottom Jeans [Jeans]
Boots with the fur [With the fur]
The whole club was lookin at her
She hit the floor [She hit the floor]
Next thing you know
Shawty got low low low low low low low low
P/E is not 3.43 it's in the 50's which is double the S&P. They only made about $0.05 last year once you factor out all the crazy stuff they do - most of the income last year was for the sale of their Korea business which was the most profitable business piece they had.
$2.57 / $0.05 = 51.4. The two previous years they lost money and most years they lose money. That's why the use cash EBITDA, pro forma, Adjusted EBITDA and all kinds of other metrics. They don't generate cash, they have spent ALL the money, they have a convert overhang, revenue continues to decline 10% YoY - they already tried to sell this thing. The only people that want to buy the stock are senior management team because it's a large part of their comp which is way to much.
The only time the stock goes up is when they lie about the future or start rumors that someone might buy them. This is a turd, it's been a turd for a decade, and now that all the money is gone it will for ever be remembered as a turd.
Applaud your effort to pump. How much are you going in for and what do you think the strike price would be?
FYI Yahoo sold Hotjobs to Monster for $225M a few years back....they got the better deal and since they are looking at getting bought I doubt they are a buyer. I really doubt FB or Google have any interest - who else do you think will buy this great company?
They have nothing that Google or Facebook would want. They may be interested in Indeed, CB, Dice or Linkedin, but Monster has nothing that anyone would want. All they have are renewals that are slowly going away. But, feel free to buy as many shares as you want, the institutionals are unloading at a fast pace.
Return to the share holders? The stock is at the lowest it has ever been since they were listed. Have you looked at the declining stock price over the years? Nothing has been returned to the shareholders but poor performance.
You've stated the answer to this question yourself several times-they simply don't have better use for the capital, hence it returns to the shareholders.
Book value per share $5.44 - Monster is worth double the stock price.
Very low debt and trailing P/E of 3.43 makes this a Prime Buyout Target.
If not Google, then FB, or even Yahoo. Social Media still needs to build
on the data mining for Job seekers. This will get Bought out. Just watch.