Maybe on a physiological level but I don't think so.
LNKD has 131M shares outstanding and a trade volume of 1.7M daily or 1.3%
DHX has 52M shares outstanding and a trade volume of 300K daily or 0.6%
MWW has 96M shares outstanding and trade volume of 1.5M daily or 1.6%
There is a constant dilution of nearly 1M+ shares a quarter due to exec comp. They stated they would buy based on FCF which is likely 1M - 2M shares a quarter or about 1 days worth of trading. Even though the institutions are the largest owners they are really holding for a lot of smaller players. They pulled out 25% of the shares and it didn't really affect the price, I don't think another 10% which really isn't that based on dilution is going to make a difference.
Or they know the stock price will be supported by $75 million set to buy back shares over 2 years. After 4th quarter numbers, you better believe they will be buying with the bulk of that money. If I knew there was a $75 million investor, take the loss now and as you know...wash sale rule...go short in January.
That may be true but the short interest took a positive turn this last round. Just over 4M shares are no longer short. So either someone thinks things are going to improve, they are tired of waiting, or they think it might be sold.
Heck Q2 2013 - Adjusted EBITDA 19.3%
You are right these guys are focused on all the wrong metrics. What do we want - GROWTH! When do we want it - NOW! Do we care about adjusted EBITDA - Heck NO! The C level exec and board MUST GO.
What do we want - GROWTH! When do we want it - NOW! Do we care about adjusted EBITDA - Heck NO! The C level exec and board MUST GO.
So before the reign of Sal, his henchman, and Mark E Mark - Monster was a once profitable company.
Q4 2007 - Revenue $354M EBITDA $84M or 24%.
Q4 2015 - Revenue $167M EBITDA $25M or 15%.
They want to pat themselves on the back and claim that they are 'managing' the business effectively but they aren't even close to what the company used to do. Plus they are using Adjusted EBITDA (you know without the stock compensation expense that the team hasn't earned) and still they are only at 18.1% - with Korea!!! Without they are 16.8%.
Tick Tock - time to end the Symbol mafia and Mark E Mark.
They wasted $600M in the bank when they took over and over $200M a year in cash - you know net income - generated by the business. Now they might generate $30M in net income for 2015. Bravo - Bravo - time to start figuring out what stock bonuses you need to keep the professional management team in place.
Sal took $11M for some yet to work long term strategic plan - What the crapola people?
Europe is likely not to be the bright spot that Monster was hoping for. The US also seems down so I would expect closer to $160M in revenue - real revenue not unicorn constant currency and other stuff.
I think the team is starting to realize that when you have only 5% or less of market share you are really at the mercy of the market and job postings are a commodity.
The only real hail mary that they have left is to duplicate or clone Linkedin. Start on that now - capture the passive seeker and you might have a chance at survival. You can do what they do but cheaper and maybe you stay alive. Otherwise I think the symbol people are finally out of the picture come the end of 2016.
Happy turkey week people.
That is what they did before. Remember when they were doing those share buybacks when the stock was over $5 per share. They did that until they needed a loan and could issue convertible debt at $5 per share.So, buy high and take out a loan so you can issue the shares you bought back...lower than what you bought them for. Oh, and pay 18 million just to get the loan.
and I quote "THE BEST USE OF CAPITAL IS TO PURCHASE THE MONSTER STOCK BECAUSE WE BELIEVE ITS UNDERVALUED." But it's not since they are all selling.
At least Tim is keeping the illusion the rest are selling. The management team reminds me of Ben Carson how did someone so dumb and out of touch with reality end up rich, a brain surgeon, and in charge (or at least running for president.)
6 month low and still dropping. Management team not telling the truth and selling stock as fast as they can without 'retiring.' Why not pay a dividend that would have returned at least $400M+ AFTER taxes to the shareholders - instead you have bought stock above the current price. How can a group of managers make the wrong decision for nearly a decade now and still get paid big bucks.
Mark how do you live with yourself you have been an key player in the demise of two companies now? America is great isn't you've made a ton of money and ruined to industry leaders - bravo - bravo.
Oh I know we are lowering the stock price so when we decide on next years bonus plan we know we'll make it just like last year.
I would agree here - I think you are right on. The management team had a revenue and bookings goal for many years that they missed but still got rewarded for. I still think that is a better goal than what the current team has which is stock price and EBITDA margin. The stock was very low and the EBITDA margins are easy to get even if it hollows out the company. We know there are 1500 - 2000 more people than needed in the company so you just cut some of those and you got your number. The stock price is based on 30 days and we know this stock can be pushed up and down for periods of time especially when the management team lies about how future quarters are looking.
I would agree on the 5% number as well although I'm not sure they ever had 50% of the market but it's possible. The strategy is the same since the days of Sal, we hope that things will improve in the future and we have so much extra overhead that 50% or more of the increase in revenue will drop to the bottom line.
You have the horrible incidents in Paris and the US planning on increasing interest rates. In the best of times Monster has continued to shrink so if the economy and world slip a bit I would expect Monster to do even worse. As their % of the market is so small now they are really at the mercy of the market pricing which is trending down. With 250K jobs you need $200+ average revenue to keep going but the market is closer to $25 so expected continued declining revenue.
This is why internet companies find that getting rid of the founders is a bad idea and why the bring them back to save the company. As long as the company lets Jeff DJ a couple of times a week I'm sure he would come back and lead the company. He wasn't a great manager but he surrounded himself with people that could manage. Of course Sal got rid of all of them because he thought his bar code reader friends could professionally manage this thing.
I think that is the real problem, all the C level execs including Sal and Lise thought of themselves as real professional managers. That really is the problem as in todays fast paced world and especially an internet based company you don't want professional managers. When the CEO wants to spend time with his family or farm or is it the books with the CFO you got a real problem. When the President wants to expand margins and buy more shares you got a problem. For a company that is a market leader the professional manager thing might work but for this company it's been the death of it.
Monster 167, Linkedin 779, Careerbuilder 180, Dice 65, Indeed 150, 51jobs 83 - in quarterly revenue gives Monster about a 10% share. The market has continued to grow even during 2008 when the micro macro stuff all started to happen. But add in all the other job sites and Monsters once dominate 50% position is really less than 5% now under the reign of Sal and his idiot henchman and woman.
As the doors said - this is the end - my only friend the end.
AW feels like old times. Short interest at all time high since May of this year. Sure sounds like the street is starting to see that Sal was the real brains of the operation and with him gone it's all down hill. Seriously the only thing we can possible think of to do with money is buy more stock?
That has worked so well but when you are the largest shareholders it really is the only way to keep the price up until you retire. You can't grow when all you do is cut but you can't stop cutting because you can't grow the business. If you have no idea how to run the company, if you have no idea how to grow the company, then step aside and give someone with vision a chance. Waiting for things to grow and talking about the margin expansion with growth is so freaking old.
I hate to say this but Tim and Mark you are worse than Sal and you should be ashamed of yourselves. You had an opportunity to distance yourself from Sal and instead you embraced his idiotic visions of grandeur. But we are the largest shareholders - yes that's true but the shares were given to you - you did not and have not earned them - just like Sal and Lise. You are the reason America is falling behind - you are the 1% that didn't earn it or deserve it. I hope you retire soon.
Personally I don't think it's worth anything, except to trade on the volatility.
I usually go by GAAP EPS which is horrible for this company. It lost $2.27 in 2012, made $0 in 2013, lost $3.29 in 2014 and it might make $0.30 a share this year or it could lose a few dollars if they do another write off of good will.
Best case you toss out the 3 previous years and you go with this year with the expected $0.30 a share. At the low end it's 12 x $0.30 or $3.60 and on the high end it's 20 x $0.30 or $6.00. I would subtract $1.25 for the debt that they have making it $2.35 - $4.75 but they sold Korea so it's more like $0.25. They plan on using that cash for stock buybacks which is worthless but since they technically still have the cash I would put it at $3.35 to $5.75 if it were sold today. Maybe a 20-25% premium on a sale, again that's best case.
Worst case is it's nearly zero based on the last TTM or average of the last 3 years, the $500M+ goodwill they still have to write off, and revenue continues to decline. Based on a 30% short float that seems to be holding steady I think the street is closer to the worst case.
They've kept the price high with the story about growth and expanded margins but that story appears to be failing or simply not true. I expect the shorts to win over the next 6 months or so, I wouldn't be surprised by a 52 week low or all time low in the next 6 months. But I also wouldn't be surprised with a 52 week high in that same time frame if there is any good news in the next quarter or two.
Great question - I wish the pumpers would brainstorm on that.
I think they had two choices - go low and compete with Indeed - or go high and compete with Linkedin. I don't know why they went low - that really baffles me. Why dilute the brand they spent years building, why compete with a company offering jobs at $25 when you are charging several hundred. Why increase the job count by 16x especially when others have already done it? Maybe it was easier both from a technology side and from an EGO side. Sal spent years saying Linkedin wasn't a competitor and bashing them. It may have started out that way but they went down the food chain and stack and quickly eroded Monster's core.
They have talked about pricing holding steady - some decline this quarter. The reality is it's been eroding - if you keep your prices the same and you shed massive market share then pricing isn't holding. Think about all the revenue from all the job sites and Monster has to be 5% globally now? Linkedin is 4x, Careerbuilder is 1.25x, Indeed is 1.5x plus dice, ziprecruiter and the like - plus overseas!
The other way was to create a network site like Linkedin. I think they dabbled in this even way back in the tickle days with structured data. One of the biggest knocks against Monster was the resumes (profiles) weren't the same so searching was a problem. That's why they went the sick sense route but obviously that wasn't a game changer either. They also tried the BeKnown thing so maybe after those laughable failures they just chose the simple route versus doing nothing. The problem is the simple route was worse than doing nothing and continues to erode the core business.
People made fun of me when I said they would barely do $800M in revenue a few years ago. This year they will barely do $700M and next year it will be $600M. Yes some of that is due to Korea but it still counts as someone else said.
I'm not sure they have the money or resources to pivot at this point.
Let there be light.
Why would the CEO spend more time with the new CFO who has been with the company for years and shouldn't need any help or support. Revenue is declining, this shows that he is not a true CEO and they are pushing for Mark to take the fall.....er lead. Mark isn't a symbol guy so why not leave him holding the bag?
The CEO should be working on the vision and mission.....oh yeah that's just executing Sal's kamikaze plan or is it hari kari......I don't know I get the two confused.
SPG is there any hope? Is there anything they can do to save this thing?
Nice to see you're back. Your information is always top notch. Anyone can see by your posts that this is a horrible investment in a horrible company. Why else would the CFO leave? No one knows the numbers better than him. If he is gone, everyone else will follow. I had over 50 connections on Linkedin when I was working for Monster...7 are left at the company. All of the rest left. They help companies "find better". Unfortunately, they cannot find anyone for their own stupid company.
It comes back to the same question - why believe that current management that they have any clue or understanding in the believe that the business will GROW next year 5% YoY?
Whatever they focus on causing things to break. Remember many quarters ago when they said they would focus on the US because it was starting to pick up - 6 quarters of down revenue since. $5M in growth for new products in 7 quarters - amazing to bad the rest of the business declined $37M in that time frame (counting the sale of Korea.)
We were supposed to be growing now with 10% growth on our way to $205 - $210M in revenue by Q2 of 16. We are now at 167M and declining.
Organic search is down the last 2 quarters but up 40% over the last 2 years. On one hand that's good on the other were they just paying for key words they didn't really need to buy for years - I think that's likely but hey take credit wherever you can and tie a bonus to it. Take credit twice - we reduced our marketing spend because we got more efficient. No you were paying for things that you were going to get anyways genius.
Remember when we said we would cut 300 positions - we cut 150 - that should be good for another bonus.
Don't look at our churn rate which is 30% YoY just look at it as 15K new customers (with less revenue.)
Deferred revenue was up 4 quarters in a row in the US yet revenue fell each and every quarter including this one.
We increased jobs by 16x but UV's haven't changed - we made you think it did by talking about organic search UV's though didn't we.....come on you got to give us that one. Revenue still down quarter after quarter because this is game changing stuff.
But we tied executive comp to % of adjusted EBITDA and stock price (after it was at an all time low) and we've made those numbers so - bonus again baby!
12+ months into the new plan and revenue continues to go down. Why would we believe that you can turn it around when you don't even know why you have failed so far!
These decreases were partially offset by a final separation charge of $2.0 million relating to the resignation of the Company’s former Chief Executive Officer in the second quarter of 2015.
They said they would review the bonus but I guess it's just more rubber stamps and give aways for the executives. By Q2 of 2015 it should have been clear to anyone with a pulse that Sal had completely wrecked the company and his long term plan was nothing but bunk. But instead of taking a stand they just pay him out. I hear Tim is working on his cough and medical excuse as we speak so he can retire.
Sheep the board is full of them. I can't believe this company just keeps giving away stock and money to the executives that obviously have no clue and have wasted nearly $1.5B since they took over and revenue is half of what it was. You realize that Monster's market share is less than 10% now - measured by revenue? That Dice is worth as much as Monster with 1/2 the revenue? Monster is in 40 countries and earns about $50M a quarter overseas that's an average of $1.2M a quarter per country - expect them to consolidate and refocus on the US - remember they already focused on the US once and revenue has declined every single quarter since then.
Can't believe nobody has been sued, that nobody has been jailed, and that nobody has started a wiki page on the greatest CON in years.