Then why do you continue to read after 5 years?
Why don't you defend the Monster with some data or reason. It's at least the 4th plan since Sal took over and none of them have worked. The number of jobs on Monster are way up and yet the revenue is going to be way down this quarter. The latest plan is essentially in place and it's failing - Alexa shows a steady decrease in traffic over the last 3 months - wouldn't it be going the other way?
Why pay Monster to post my jobs when they will do it for free? Why pay Monster for resume access when people will click on my 'free Monster job' and give me their resume for my job that they are interested in.
Never mind you are right just stick around and Monster will be a major force again once the Micro/Macro/Marble thing gets worked out - you are right - let me check my health plan to see if it covers mental health.
Dude you are a psycho with all your posts on Monster. Reevaluate life. The company will be fine. Your wish for it to fail is clearly an issue you need to speak to a psychiatrist about. Is Monster Linkedin? No. But does Monster have a path to be a major force again...yes. Just so weird that 9 out of 10 posts on this board is from you and its like 5 years running. Again Psychiatrist is a good idea.
Q3 - Analyst average estimate is $189 for the quarter - low $185 - given the low ball NON-GAAP numbers that Sal was talking about I would guess between $180 and $185. For the year that would put us at less than $775 for the year. Next year doesn't look any better....maybe when the next recession hits next year when the fed raises rates that will buy Sal and team some more time....
Linkedin should be just about 3x that for the year and by the end of next year they should do in 1 quarter what Monster does in an entire year and still be growing over 30% YoY. My how the Monster has fallen.
As for short interest I would think it's going to start climbing again. If only I knew how to short a stock - I could have made a killing over the last couple of years......oh well back to flipping burgers I guess.
It's down slightly on the last update. but it's been in a narrow range for a while.
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
8/15/2014 7,899,669 1,267,093 6.234482
7/31/2014 8,061,662 799,675 10.081173
7/15/2014 8,450,379 1,299,624 6.502172
6/30/2014 7,802,732 1,275,572 6.117046
6/13/2014 8,358,157 1,734,361 4.819156
5/30/2014 7,963,012 1,412,148 5.638936
5/15/2014 8,247,155 3,104,330 2.656662
cv-library (co uk) UK - job searches up 51% YoY - made top 500 growth companies with 800%+ growth over the last 5 years because of the recession I'm sure......
Linkedin 60% growth YoY in Europe - up to $216M in revenue - more than ALL of Monster combined - growth was $76M YoY - again more than ALL of Monster International revenue in the quarter.
Sal and team never understood the marketing and branding power of Monster - that's was the value of Monster - everybody made fun of Jeff but he got people's attention and Steve got them to sign on the line.
It's over and as soon as the board realizes that Sal has been lying to them for years they will finally do the right thing and get rid of him and the symbol mafia.
Earnings per share min/target/max
$0.20 - $0.51 - $0.86
Consolidated revenue (M)
$950 - $1,025 - $1,100
Consolidated Operating Income (M)
$47.5 - $102.6 - $165
Actual - $0.16, $905, (-$8.8) - missed all three by a wide marging
Gross Sales threshold, intermediate, target, max
$999 - $1,029 - $1,129 - $1,216
(-$24.4) - (-$18.9) - $7.2 - $28.3
$890 - $903 - $945 - $981.5
$1,035 - (-$8.3) - $889.1
Again hit two Intermediate targets missed on the last.
Recap - in 5 years they miss ALL the metrics in 4 years and hit two of the intermediate for two categories.
Yet they still got bonuses most of those years.....just a disgrace. Sal if you were really the chairman and you had a team that did this poorly would you still back them.....nope - you are a conflict of your own interest.
51jobs - China 15% YoY growth $70M in revenue for the quarter - more than all of monster international.
Naukri - India - 15% YoY growth - $23M in revenue for the quarter.
Sal and the team are lying they are being beaten overseas and in the US.
The compensation committee set the goals and for 3 years in a row (actually more than that) they missed the target - 2 of those years they missed even the threshold even though they got bonuses anyways? The other year they hit the intermediate target for 2 out of 3. I don't know what 2014 goals are but given the first 6 months I don't see how they hit them.
Bookings (threshold - intermediate - target - max)
2011 - $1.19B - $1.22B - $1.24B - $1.26B
2012 - $932.9 - $958.8 - $994.2 - $1,057.3
2013 - $907.2 - $931.0 - $967.2 - $1,039.5
2011 - $87.1 - $98.6 - $110.1 - $121.6
2012 - $73.8 - $78.5 - $95.4 - $120
2013 - $67.5 - $74.3 - $90.4 $107.2
Consolidated Net Revenue
2011 - $1.10B - $1.13B - $1.15B - $1.17B
2012 - $847.4 - $876.7 - $903.9 - $974.1
2013 - $832.5 - $855.2 - $890.4 - $957.2
2011 - $1.11B - $75M - $1.04B ( missed all - got a bonus anyways)
2012 - $967.8 - $67.3 - $890.4 (intermediate on 2 but below target - miss on other)
2013 - $???.? - (-$0.4) - $807.6 (all miss - don’t report bookings anymore)
Fool me once - shame on me - fool me twice shame on you - fool me three times and we are all idiots for leaving these people in charge.
After looking at it I think you are right - Linkedin killed the Monster.
In Q4/2011 Linkedin was only $168M in total revenue now they are $550M. They have had a slow down in YoY growth but that's the law of big numbers. I think they grew with the economy and took business away from Monster.
It just means that Sal picked the wrong strategy yet again. The aggregation model only works because it's cheap and a way for smaller players to get big quick - the opposite of Monster.
It really was what killed Monster - the passive candidate (something Sal stated in the last earnings call that he doesn't believe in - seriously he said that) who keeps their resume up to date and is peer reviewed is just a better source. Versus the 'oh #$%$ I'm out of a job or about to be what do I do know - post it on Monster?' Plus everybody makes $150K right? (Another Sal - that's the only people on Linkedin.)
Ah, I'm really sad now, how many people are going to lose their jobs?
I don't know - Q3/2009 was the bottom - after that both revenue and bookings start increasing (or the decrease YoY is less) and revenue anyways is a straight line until Q4/2010 where it tops out for 4 quarters so most of 2011.
But then in Q4 it dives 20% and has continued going down ever since. They may have done something before that but at that point they are running with their peers and increasing 20% YoY which is what the industry was doing and continued to do through 2012 - 2013 and now 2014.
Monster though didn't and the new strategy isn't working at all as things continue to decline - they revised the quarterly numbers down for the rest of the year. Something broke or the competition did something that was right around this time and Monster missed it.
If you look at Linked in their ecom business is as big as Monster this quarter - $200M in sales - no people. That's just a huge advantage - got to be price or something like that. They have had no issues in EU - still growing 40% + YoY.
I think it's too late but for history it would be interesting to know what happened.
Darko was just smart to leave, he was not the product savior by any means. He was the drive behind 6Sense and the purchases, because he knew that his team could not create anything in a timely fashion, and it was a good cover to say this will be a game changing purchase and turn Monster around, and make it that leader in the industry. He had good timing because he knew that his team had nothing in the pipeline: Beknown, SeeMore, Please. Still goes back to the clueless leading other clueless managers to a place that they had not idea how to compete in. What do any of the then management or the current management know about staffing, recruitment or social media.
That was also around the time that LinkedIn was starting to gain steam and Sal and company thought that "BeKnown" was going to be relevant. Most of Monster's larger accounts are on annual contracts so you really have to look at the 6-9 preceding months to understand what happened at this time. Why didn't those contracts renew and why did new client acquisition slow? The cost per hire from Monster is much greater than all of their competitors and so their clients went elsewhere for a better ROI.
I didn't realize it when I wrote this but that's when Darko left - around Aug 2011.
He picks the peak revenue quarter to leave - genius, luck, or he knew something. What changed that quarter - it wasn't a few quarters later that Sal decided to sell - if Darko knew it was going to be sold (even if he knew it wouldn't) he would have stuck around a couple of quarters and sold out on the pop.
Was Darko holding it together? They didn't go outside to find his replacement. Of course once Darko was out he could sell so he could have sold into the pop?
What do you think?
What happened around that time?
Q3/10 to Q3/11 International 86.7 - 114.1 (32% increase)
Today it's 68.3? What broke isn't the head of sales an EU guy - did Linkedin or someone else just take over?
Q3/10 to Q3/11 US 109.0 - 123.2 (13% increase) some of this is Hotjobs.
Today it's 110.3?
IAF is about 50% down but that was telegraphed and expected.
34.9 to 21.8 and now at 15.9
Was IAF critical to the EU sales? Sal can't blame the economy because obviously Monster saw the uptick that others did but then it just stopped and went the other way for Monster but continued up for everyone else.
What broke or changed in Q3 of 2011. They didn't talk about a sale until the end of Q1 2012 but by then the downturn was already started and Sal said they would stop doing guidance. I don't think Hotjobs had that big of an impact........answer why things started to go downhill after Q3 of 2011 and you might be able to fix this thing (provided you show Sal the door of course.)
.....I smell it...........rapture.......ahhhhhh what a release.
So 61 months into the recovery - unemployment a lot lower (about 40%) than the peak and the number of job opening is high as well. Job openings = job postings or at lest there is a correlation - which is why the Monster index was stopped. So I guess Sal is waiting for the next recession so he can continue his micro/macro/marble spouting. I also looked into Symbol and it looks like the CEO got indicted and they were basically selling the company when Sal took over as CEO. So he didn't really do anything - he just happened to be the only guy left so they put him in charge for a few months until the thing sold?
so...so...so...whatever. Rapture is near.
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2004 3391 3437 3420 3466 3658 3384 3835 3578 3704 3779 3456 3846
2005 3595 3842 3891 4115 3824 4018 4162 4085 4227 4230 4341 4249
2006 4278 4308 4537 4495 4432 4331 4081 4411 4498 4454 4622 4552
2007 4590 4481 4657 4534 4531 4639 4430 4508 4481 4278 4278 4323
2008 4223 4039 4012 3850 4000 3670 3762 3584 3210 3273 3059 3049
2009 2763 2794 2493 2271 2413 2388 2146 2294 2434 2376 2419 2490
2010 2701 2535 2635 3080 2927 2739 2933 2922 2789 3021 3082 2891
2011 2886 3034 3119 3084 3067 3218 3410 3205 3523 3420 3210 3538
2012 3574 3509 3827 3617 3739 3830 3595 3699 3568 3745 3755 3646
2013 3693 4015 3879 3824 3879 3971 3816 3925 3948 3996 4126 3914
2014 3874 4125 4166 4464 4577 4671(P)
That's sad. Unemployment rate is down 38% since the high in 2009 but even Sal said that Monster doesn't track with the economy. It's clear that all the other companies do though as they have seen steady increases (25% YoY) on average since 2009.
Data smata when you got no checks on your ego you spend till it's all gone!
But hey there are bright spots right?
US Unemployment rate data.....
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4
2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0
2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9
2010 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.8 9.4
2011 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5
2012 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9
2013 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.7
2014 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2
I think we're down to just the two of us now.... Even the Monster Homers have given up trying to defend the company. I think the clinical diagnosis is "circling the drain"....
Too bad it's not our symbol anymore. Coke spending $2.17B or 5x Monster (MWW) market cap for a 16% stake in the firm.
I guess that's one reason why Sal thinks his a premium brand as well - look what Monster drinks and Monster cables cost!
Can you smell that - it's the rapture - and it's near.
Is the NEW (nothing else worked) strategy working?
NON-GAAP is supposed to be $0.00 - $0.04 (of course not counting things that Sal - a trained accountant doesn't want to count) without at least stock based comp and any other one time (in a given quarter - they tend to repeat in future quarters) charges.
Does that mean we are $18x million in revenue for the quarter? Gonna be hard to have QoQ or YoY revenue gain - maybe Sal can say DoD (decade over decade) was up since it was $157M in Q3 of 2004 (monster division revenue total company revenue was $227M?)
Anybody out there care?
Monster beverage is worth more than Monster Worldwide at it's peak (11B+ versus 9-10B.)
Linkedin is worth 2.5x more than Monster Worldwide at it's peak and currently has a market cap that is 54 times larger than Monster. Will likely be 100+ soon.