A 'normal' company will buy back shares when they have nothing 'better' to do with their money. In general the company is stable, usually growing slightly but not great and the bills are covered.
Monster isn't normal - revenue is shrinking - normally a company hoards cash in these cases but instead Monster is buying something that they know is loosing value. That's not normal.
The EPS numbers are all over the board because of the way they do the accounting - Sal doesn't use GAAP numbers he uses something else. There are all kinds of one time charges, write offs, etc.
He's selling profitable and unprofitable parts of the business (china and Korea for example) and using the money to buy other companies that then implode (Yahoo/hotjobs where's that 225m?) You don't double, triple, quintiple down on a bet that is loosing money. He has thrown $600+ million at the stock and it's still down.
In the end they are now $200M in debt ($100M in cash) and loosing money hand over fist and oh yeah they have $8M a quarter in stock compensation costs ($0.08) because you know Sal's got to eat.
Also price is why they are loosing in Europe.
UK - $640 Monster ($295 Linkedin)
France = $948 ($195 linkedin)
hmm guess why Linkedin has seen 40% - 100%+ growth in Europe through the worst economic conditions that Sal and team have ever seen in Europe? Linkedin has more revenue in Europe than Monster has in the US? Linkedin has more revenue in the US than Monster has all together.
It's not the economy it's Sal and team not knowing what the bleep they are doing.
Monster doesn't have a good track record of getting people to use their new tools or technology.
Affinity Labs, Trovix search, hotjobs, etc. $360M with no real increase in revenue?
Even ones it's created like Beknown that went absolutely nowhere.
Monster's problem is they are too expensive for what they deliver - the competition has been under cutting their price just like they under cut the newspapers. Because they have refused to lower pricing they have naturally lost customers - this doesn't change with their new model - in fact it's worse because I'll be able to post elsewhere for cheaper and still end up on Monster?
$395 to post a single job - $135 per job if I post 100 or more - really? Want it bolded - yes BOLDED that's $199 per job. Access to the lame resume database - ehk.
Case in point - linkedin - list price for jobs is cheaper than Monster - guess what more revenue.
But it's not just that Linkedin figured out how to get more revenue with other products as well including the job seeker - Monster never figured that out.
Linkedin tapped into the passive market - I want to always be available and looking for the next job but I don't want to make it obvious to my employer - linkedin does that - Monster doesn't and isn't in the new model - big miss. When someone looses their job they change their linkedin status first, they don't post their resume on Monster - that takes time - I have to update it.
Faith is lost in management because they were never marketing or HR people - they were bean counters that worked for Motorolla????? They had the mechanics of being a CEO or whatever but not the passion or the business experience - they just thought - how hard could it be.
The overhead costs are just to high with Monster - linkedin has less people and 2.5x more revenue and growth. They are a web 1.0 company in a post 2.0 world. It's OVER.
The new tools seem very limited and certainly not enough to turn the ship. My view is based on the following break down of each new tool:
Twitter Cards....why go through Monster to use this tool when you could go through Twitter or an agency that will back it with creativity and people who know how to effectively utilize Twitter?
Monster CRM - so a recruiter can now bulk message a group of candidates without leaving the Monster platform. If this were 1998, then it might be a tool that captures interest. Most recruiters have their own CRM tools already....the Monster version will have to be earth-shattering to make a difference.
TalentBin - This I'll admit I may be judging too quickly and may revise after I learn more about it. But the basic premise that desired job-seekers are going to be identified by harvesting information from other sites seems a little....out there. So Jim32456 posted an answer to a question about SQL on a message board and a recruiter can now target Jim32456? If that person was really in the market, my guess is their LinkedIn profile is a much easier path to identifying them, qualifying them, and contacting them. This concept could work, but LinkedIn already works.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
In all seriousness, why do you think employers will avoid adoption of the new Monster tools and technology? Do you think they have just lost all faith/confidence in the company and there isn't anything they can do to win people back?
Thanks for the insight. I think you're right about the $190M number. I do have a question about EPS though.... With the share buybacks, shouldn't the EPS be going up by roughly the same % of shares that were expired, assuming all other numbers are roughly the same? Or do they still count as shares outstanding in the calculations.
If we look at trend data it says it should be down - I would think closer to $190M which is going to kill the stock price - but hey I've been wrong before.
If we look at deferred revenue and revenue for the quarter - last year to this year....
Q4 12 - 351.5D, 211.2R
Q1 13 - 356.5D, 212R
Q4 13 - 342.2D, 198.7R
Q1 14 - 341.9D, 198.1R
Last year they spun the Q4 to Q1 story as increased revenue - things are looking up. This year they played with the words to say careers revenue was up but really overall revenue was down.
There does seem to be a relationship between deferred and revenue - it's not 1:1 as Q3 of 13 was 315.6D and 196.8R but it is related.
Last year revenue in Q2 was $10M below Q1 which has been the trend ($20M in previous years) I would say it's more likely that revenue is closer to $190M than to $199M.
They have't implemented the new pricing model and if I were a customer I would be in a bit of wait and see mode - sign up for the bare minimum and let's see where this thing goes.
Given that lat year deferred revenue was on the increase and this year it was on the decrease (slight) I would say you are running into a head wind and with the size of Sal's head (& ego) that's a problem.
Any thoughts on Q2? Analysts are looking for 199M and .09 EPS which is essentially flat from last year. Is this the quarter that the company stops shrinking? Wishing them good luck but I am not optimistic.
Monster has decoupled from the economy a long time ago. It's over - sorry wanted to do a few posts before the SPAM started again - great post - need that information - good job - blah blah. Nobody even defends them anymore on this board they've all given up and moved their 401K money somewhere safe and are just hanging out for the paycheck.
Sal please go. It will be the best and only thing you could possible do to raise the value of the stock.
Guess the pump didn't work this time. The end is near, the rapture is close. There were three choices and Sal and team picked the wrong choice as always. They could have done nothing, changed to be more linkedin, or go the indeed route. They choose the Indeed route - who's going to pay monster big dollars to post when their jobs will be aggregated for free. Aren't there any smart people left or is it a total cult of personality. Remember when Sal said in the WSJ that Linkedin was $150K jobs and higher? They are close to $500M in revenue - 2.5x more than Monster and still growing 40% YoY. Why wouldn't you have gone after that market - although he was totally wrong about the dollar amount. But when you make millions and you pay the people that work for you millions it can warp your sense of judgement and put you in a bubble.
Time to go to the farm Sal, the rapture is near.
Only about 2.1% of employee 401K is in Monster stock. If all the 401K money was put in Monster stock almost have the company would be employee owned or ex employee owned. That really does say a lot when not even the employee's and ex employees will risk their own money. It's like the management team that won't use their millions in salary and bonus to cover the cost of their RSU's - instead they sell RSU's to cover because who wants to risk their own money on this thing?
Are you ready for the rapture - Sal and team are packing up secretly as we speak.
good job! its really works for me...and its making my profits more and more', i would recommend this to everyone.
thats funny, i'm in the recruiting business and I don't know a company that doesn't have a paid subscription to Monster.... as much as everyone bashes them, they are still a productive and necessary resume source for HR depatments...
I use to enjoy the message board and the back and forth debate. But now it's turned into a spam bucket.
You seem to be the only one left that knows what they r talking about.
The market cap was 2.0B at the start of 2011. I can understand blaming the previous team for things before then but by 2011 Sal and team were fully in control for 5 years. Since 2011 Sal has spent $254M on stock repurchase even though the market cap is down 75% to ~500M. With 200M in debt and the last ditch NEW project I just don't see it making it.
The all jobs piece is going to lower revenue as people figure out I can post it for $20 somewhere else or even free and monster will scrape it and post it on their site. Why would I pay monster $150 - $300 to post a job? They have already seen a large increase in posted jobs to the site but didn't see an increase in revenue. Q4 to Q1 has seen several years with a slight sequential rise - it doesn't translate into a sustained growth story.
The economy has been on the heal for years now - the number of job opening is back to pre crash levels but Monsters revenue is 1/2 what it was. The market has shifted and it ain't coming back y'all. Revenue will be down in Q2 and that will hurt the stock - it will be down in Q3 and that will kill the stock and then Sal and his team will be gone before the end of the year. That will cause a rise in the stock for a while but in the end it's over - OVER no matter who is in charge now. $200M in debt - a stock that nobody but Sal wants to buy. What a waste.