I'll give you another example of why Tim is not a very good CEO - possibly on par or worse than Sal. For nearly a decade now the senior management has been fooled or has been fooling the board and stock holders with the turn around story. It happens around this time of year and it's the reason that bonuses were paid even when performance didn't merit it and why the stock rallies. Deferred revenue has increased in Q4 and a little in Q1 most of the previous years. The team looks at that and says why shouldn't that just keep continuing through the year and that's what they tell the street we will see growth this year.....doesn't happen.
Well Tim did it this time - he mentions several times on the call we are digging ourselves out.
Now, looking at that going into 2016, the situation is better. Deferred is $18 million lower coming into 2016, compared to $40 million coming into 2015, so we will have less of a headwind. We are digging out of this hole; not as fast as we would like, but we are digging out
But that's just not the case and it's the typical cyclical pattern. Using my previous post of Real numbers x3.
Q4/12 versus Q4/11 - DOWN 6.7M
Q4/13 versus Q4/12 - DOWN 9.3M
Q4/14 versus Q4/13 - DOWN 41.5M
Q4/15 versus Q4/14 - DOWN 20.9M
Q1/12 versus Q4/11 - UP 28.4M
Q1/13 versus Q4/12 - UP 5.0M
Q1/14 versus Q4/13 - DOWN 0.3M
Q1/15 versus Q4/14 - UP 2.8M
So sure DOWN 20.9M is better than the previous year of 41.5M but it's still worse than the previous 2 years. In all of those years revenue continued to decline and why should it not continue that trend - there is no data to support the 5% increase this year.
Q1 is happening now so it's likely it's up a few million so they see that as progress, not as much as we were wanting but still a trend in the right direction. Then the board sets the comp plan based on this and the team completely misses it. That's why this year they changed it to adjusted EBITA and the stock price...still paid out $3M+.
That's the same thing they said about $5, $4 and $3. If 1st quarter numbers are as bad as they sound and they ramp up the buybacks with the $67 million they have left, we could see $1.99. Revenue declines have accelerated and they had two CFO's leave within the last 6 months. This is the end.
So you're holding onto your losses and about to double down to try to break even...not going to happen. Write this one off and move on. You can try to put as much positive spin on it as you want. When the top accountants jump ship, that should give you all the reasons to start using your head and jump ship as well. Just take your loss as a learning experience.